2024 Presidential Primary Polling Thread

[MWmetalhead]

If a crackpot such as Kennedy can poll 13 percent, just imagine how well a credible independent candidate might do!

[Round Six]

If a crackpot such as Kennedy can poll 13 percent, just imagine how well a credible independent candidate might do!

What faults do you have with Kennedy?
(I'm going somewhere but I'll start by asking this).

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If a crackpot such as Kennedy can poll 13 percent, just imagine how well a credible independent candidate might do!

It sounds great right now. But independents always lose support in the end. The problem
Is that an independent really isn’t electable for a number of reasons including funding and ballot access issues. That person would have to start way earlier and file and get signatures in all 50 states individually to get on the ballot. It’s an almost impossible task.

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March 4

I&I / TIPP
GOP Nomination:
Trump 79
Haley 11

Democratic Nomination:
Biden 76
Phillips 9

General Election:
Biden 43
Trump 42

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March 5

Des Moines Register
Iowa General Election:
Trump 48
Biden 33

Morning Consult
GOP Nomination:
Trump 82
Haley 17

General Election:
Biden 44
Trump 43

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March 6

Economist / YouGov
GOP Nomination:
Trump 76
Haley 15

General Election:
Trump 44
Biden 42

Biden 37
Haley 34

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 43
Democrats 41

The Hill / Emerson
Montana General Election:
Trump 56
Biden 35

Trump 49
Biden 28
Kennedy 8
West 1
Stein 1

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March 8
Some interesting numbers from Emerson which tends to have a rightward skew... Their previous several polls had Trump ahead of Biden dating back as far as September apparently. Some of this movement is reported to have come after Haley dropped out. Buried within the poll is a statistic about Haley voters (and yes that includes Independents and some Democrats so it is inflated) breaking something like 63-27 for Biden. If that sort of thing holds Trump is in trouble. The Biden campaign has always been holding out some sort of hope that voters would have an oh shit moment when they realized Trump would really be the nominee and we may be seeing the start of that. Obviously we need a lot more data. That said this is the third or fourth poll this week that put the race within the margin for error.


Emerson
General Election:
Biden 51
Trump 49

Trump 43
Biden 42
Kennedy 6
West 2
Stein 1

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 45
Republicans 43

GOP Nomination:
Trump 81
Haley 15

Democratic Nomination:
Biden 77
Phillips 4
KSTP Minneapolis / SurveyUSA
Minnesota General Election:
Biden 42
Trump 38

The Hill / Emerson
Indiana GOP Primary:
Trump 78
Haley 14

Indiana General Election:
Trump 55
Biden 34

Haley 45
Biden 29

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March 8

Data For Progress
Alaska General Election:
Trump 53
Biden 41

[MWmetalhead]

If a crackpot such as Kennedy can poll 13 percent, just imagine how well a credible independent candidate might do!

What faults do you have with Kennedy?
(I'm going somewhere but I'll start by asking this).

His positions on monetary policy are idiotic:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.coinde ... ected/amp/

He wants student loans to be interest free and universities and colleges to bear the cost of borrower defaults. If such a policy were ever implemented, many schools would simply leave the federal loan program altogether, which would raise (not lower) the cost of borrowing for students. His suggestion that his proposal would result in reduced tuition prices is also nonsense. When the cost of doing business increases, prices generally go up, not down. Requiring universities to bear the burden of federal loan program borrower defaults would result in higher tuition prices for schools that choose to remain in the program.

He is unable to give straight answers as to his policy views on abortion.

He wants to expand environmental regulation, hamstring the fossil fuel industry, and shut down nuclear plants.

He also appears to want to cut defense spending dramatically, a move with which I completely disagree.

Worst of all, he is a big anti-vaxxer, which means he is pro-disease and pro-virus. For fans of measles, mumps and influenza - he's your guy!

Good source for his positions on various topics:
https://www.isidewith.com/candidates/ro ... 2/policies

In some respects, his positions remind me of Ron Paul.

[Rate This]

If a crackpot such as Kennedy can poll 13 percent, just imagine how well a credible independent candidate might do!

What faults do you have with Kennedy?
(I'm going somewhere but I'll start by asking this).

His positions on monetary policy are idiotic:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.coinde ... ected/amp/

He wants student loans to be interest free and universities and colleges to bear the cost of borrower defaults. If such a policy were ever implemented, many schools would simply leave the federal loan program altogether, which would raise (not lower) the cost of borrowing for students. His suggestion that his proposal would result in reduced tuition prices is also nonsense. When the cost of doing business increases, prices generally go up, not down. Requiring universities to bear the burden of federal loan program borrower defaults would result in higher tuition prices for schools that choose to remain in the program.

He is unable to give straight answers as to his policy views on abortion.

He wants to expand environmental regulation, hamstring the fossil fuel industry, and shut down nuclear plants.

He also appears to want to cut defense spending dramatically, a move with which I completely disagree.

Worst of all, he is a big anti-vaxxer, which means he is pro-disease and pro-virus. For fans of measles, mumps and influenza - he's your guy!

Good source for his positions on various topics:
https://www.isidewith.com/candidates/ro ... 2/policies

In some respects, his positions remind me of Ron Paul.

With regard to student loans I strongly doubt he would be having the schools bear the burden of any defaults at all. That doesn’t sound plausible. Undoubtedly the Federal Government would be giving out interest free loans and guarantee them in the event of a default. I don’t see how the school would be on the hook for anything. It would be between the borrower and the federal loan program years after the person dropped out or graduated. The school would have long received the money, spent it and be hard at work securing more students to get loans.

Wait a minute… I skipped an entire line and now see his plan IS to do that… sorry just woke up… at any rate what I said is how it should work. Why would you bring the school into an agreement between lender and lendee?

[MWmetalhead]

He claims (correctly) that easy loan availability spurs colleges and universities to raise tuition prices.

His proposed solution won't solve that problem. It'll worsen it.

Unlimited zero interest as he's proposing will also encourage borrowers to slow walk repayment.

[Rate This]

He claims (correctly) that easy loan availability spurs colleges and universities to raise tuition prices.

His proposed solution won't solve that problem. It'll worsen it.

Unlimited zero interest as he's proposing will also encourage borrowers to slow walk repayment.

It’s kinda hard to slow walk repayment beyond the available deferments and income based repayments though. You can’t just not pay indefinitely and tough luck.

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March 11

Morning Consult
General Election:
Trump 44
Biden 43

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March 12

The Hill / Emerson
Georgia General Election:
Trump 52
Biden 48

Trump 44
Biden 37
Kennedy 5
West 2
Stein 1

WRAL-TV Raliegh, NC / Survey USA
North Carolina General Election:
Trump 50
Biden 45

Forbes / HarrisX
General Election:
Trump 52
Biden 48

Trump 44
Biden 38
Kennedy 15
West 2
Stein 2

[Rate This]

March 13

CBS News
Georgia General Election:
Trump 51
Biden 48

The Hill / Emerson
Ohio General Election:
Trump 55
Biden 45

Trump 47
Biden 38
Kennedy 6
Stein 1
West 1

Economist / YouGov
General Election:
Trump 44
Biden 42

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 43
Republicans 42

Rasmussen Reports
General Election:
Trump 48
Biden 41

Trump 51
Newsom 34

Yahoo News
General Election:
Trump 46
Biden 44

Daily Kos / Civiqs
General Election:
Biden 45
Trump 44

USA Today / Suffolk
General Election:
Trump 40
Biden 38
Kennedy 9
West 2
Stein 2