2024 Presidential Primary Polling Thread

[Honeyman]

FWIW, the betting site bmw cites often now has the race as a 10 cent difference. It was 20 yesterday if I'm not mistaken. Feel free to add insight here beemer since I really don't know if that is substantial or not.

[Matt]

FWIW, the betting site bmw cites often now has the race as a 10 cent difference. It was 20 yesterday if I'm not mistaken. Feel free to add insight here beemer since I really don't know if that is substantial or not.

Beat me to this. It's early, but I'm seeing the same on BMW's site.

[Rate This]

FWIW, the betting site bmw cites often now has the race as a 10 cent difference. It was 20 yesterday if I'm not mistaken. Feel free to add insight here beemer since I really don't know if that is substantial or not.

The polls are mostly ties or slim Harris leads so far today. More later but it absolutely matches both the betters tightening and the panic from Trump.

[Honeyman]

FWIW, the betting site bmw cites often now has the race as a 10 cent difference. It was 20 yesterday if I'm not mistaken. Feel free to add insight here beemer since I really don't know if that is substantial or not.

The polls are mostly ties or slim Harris leads so far today. More later but it absolutely matches both the betters tightening and the panic from Trump.

Guessing a lot of this is just enthusiasm and a reaction to Biden being gone. We're in a very unprecedented political cycle, and I would not read too much into this now.

[TC Talks]

This race went from the less of two incompetents to a clear choice, either way.

You might be surprised to learn where some of the $100,000,000 in donations came from. Lots of "unconventional donors". This means "unlikely voters". This is who elected Obama.

[Rate This]

This race went from the less of two incompetents to a clear choice, either way.

You might be surprised to learn where some of the $100,000,000 in donations came from. Lots of "unconventional donors". This means "unlikely voters". This is who elected Obama.

Marginal Democrats and less likely voters are supposedly energized big time now.

[Rate This]

FWIW, the betting site bmw cites often now has the race as a 10 cent difference. It was 20 yesterday if I'm not mistaken. Feel free to add insight here beemer since I really don't know if that is substantial or not.

The polls are mostly ties or slim Harris leads so far today. More later but it absolutely matches both the betters tightening and the panic from Trump.

Guessing a lot of this is just enthusiasm and a reaction to Biden being gone. We're in a very unprecedented political cycle, and I would not read too much into this now.

The old standby is not reading into it too deeply until after Labor Day when people get back to the grind and pay attention.

[TC Talks]

This race went from the less of two incompetents to a clear choice, either way.

You might be surprised to learn where some of the $100,000,000 in donations came from. Lots of "unconventional donors". This means "unlikely voters". This is who elected Obama.

Marginal Democrats and less likely voters are supposedly energized big time now.

I can't wait to see what comes in the future weeks.

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

The Dem VP hasn’t been picked yet. It is way too early to see any polls. As has been said, let’s see where we are in September.

[Rate This]

July 23

Landmark Communications
Georgia General Election:
Trump 48
Harris 47

Trump 46
Harris 44
Kennedy 4
West 1
Stein 0

PPP
Arizona General Election:
Trump 52
Harris 44

Pennsylvania General Election:
Trump 51
Harris 45

SoCal Research
Pennsylvania General Election:
Trump 50
Harris 46

Wisconsin General Election:
Trump 50
Harris 46

NPR / PBS / Marist
General Election:
Trump 46
Harris 45

Trump 42
Harris 42
Kennedy 7
Stein 1
West 1

Yahoo News
General Election:
Trump 46
Harris 46

Trump 43
Harris 41
Kennedy 5
Stein 1
West 1

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 45
Republicans 42

Morning Consult
General Election:
Trump 47
Harris 45

Reuters / Ipsos
Harris 44
Trump 42

Harris 42
Trump 38
Kennedy 8

[TC Talks]

Jesus, I'm giddy thinking about how $100,000,000 could give her a boost. Trump's lead is wiped out in 4 days.

[km1125]

Jesus, I'm giddy thinking about how $100,000,000 could give her a boost. Trump's lead is wiped out in 4 days.

Considering they were already outspending Trump by 80:1 in some cases (and getting nowhere), I'm not sure it's going to make that much of a difference.

[Honeyman]

Jesus, I'm giddy thinking about how $100,000,000 could give her a boost. Trump's lead is wiped out in 4 days.

Considering they were already outspending Trump by 80:1 in some cases (and getting nowhere), I'm not sure it's going to make that much of a difference.

80-1? Do you have a link to back that up?

That said, the Democrats have no reason to be over-confident. I understand the excitement and think it's very positive that they have all seemed to come together, but the electoral map is not in their favor. Long way to go to hang on tho the White House.

[km1125]

Jesus, I'm giddy thinking about how $100,000,000 could give her a boost. Trump's lead is wiped out in 4 days.

Considering they were already outspending Trump by 80:1 in some cases (and getting nowhere), I'm not sure it's going to make that much of a difference.

80-1? Do you have a link to back that up?

That said, the Democrats have no reason to be over-confident. I understand the excitement and think it's very positive that they have all seemed to come together, but the electoral map is not in their favor. Long way to go to hang on tho the White House.

I'd have to dig around. I think I posted it a couple weeks ago when I looked it up, as I was (and still am) seeing nonstop ads for Biden and virtually none for Trump, mostly on streaming services. The 80:1 was specific to Michigan, but they were leading substantially in most other areas too.

[Rate This]

Jesus, I'm giddy thinking about how $100,000,000 could give her a boost. Trump's lead is wiped out in 4 days.

Considering they were already outspending Trump by 80:1 in some cases (and getting nowhere), I'm not sure it's going to make that much of a difference.

80-1? Do you have a link to back that up?

That said, the Democrats have no reason to be over-confident. I understand the excitement and think it's very positive that they have all seemed to come together, but the electoral map is not in their favor. Long way to go to hang on tho the White House.

I don’t think anybody is overconfident nor do we really know what the new makeup of the electorate is… it’ll be a different crowd that votes or doesn’t vote or switches sides because of this. The pollsters may not get the right mix at all.