2022 Election Results Thread

[Honeyman]

With 69 percent of the Presidential vote counted in 2020, Biden had a 9 point lead. He wound up winning by a few tenths of a percent.

The Dem candidate for Senate currently has a 5 point lead with a similar percentage of votes counted. It would not surprise me to see the GOP candidate jump ahead before the final vote is counted.

The Dems can thank Biden's idiotic speech late last summer for losing Wisconsin, likely Nevada, and potentially Georgia and Arizona. That speech was the turning point in polling in those races.

Dems won't lose Arizona, and would probably be favored in a Georgia runoff. Lot of mail in ballots from Clark County apparently which could move Nevada blue too.

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With 69 percent of the Presidential vote counted in 2020, Biden had a 9 point lead. He wound up winning by a few tenths of a percent.

The Dem candidate for Senate currently has a 5 point lead with a similar percentage of votes counted. It would not surprise me to see the GOP candidate jump ahead before the final vote is counted.

The Dems can thank Biden's idiotic speech late last summer for losing Wisconsin, likely Nevada, and potentially Georgia and Arizona. That speech was the turning point in polling in those races.

That last part makes absolutely no sense given all of the other results. Caring about that is not isolated to those 4 races all for senate seats. That’s… well… idiotic. Barnes is too far left for Wisconsin and was hit hard on crime and I mean really really hard. Nevada was probably pandemic related. The Democrat there never had a solid lead. Kemp probably dragged Walker farther than he would have gotten in Georgia. Unless you are suggesting the Democrats would have H*** majorities in both houses absent that speech?

The polls were quite frankly way too bullish on the Republicans where it mattered. That tells me they had too many Republicans in their samples and that makes sense given they were Republican houses mainly doing the polling. Your independent pollsters largely sat out the election.

[MWmetalhead]

Look at the polls in the specific races I identified both before and after his speech.

I am suggesting the Dems would have 51 or even 52 seats in the Senate if not for the speech.

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Look at the polls in the specific races I identified both before and after his speech.

I am suggesting the Dems would have 51 or even 52 seats in the Senate if not for the speech.

That’s what I’m referencing. If there were more Republicans in the samples then of course the polls would turn. Republicans hated the speech. The other thing is the coming home effect after bruising primaries in each of those states. How many folks were pissed off and refusing to support the Trump folks until later? I just can’t see that speech affecting those four races in isolation. It would be really strange.

[MWmetalhead]

I think Biden came across as tone deaf relative to economic issues afflicting blue collar folks in that speech.

The state Senate race to watch is Hertel versus Hornberger. Very expensive race. About 92 percent of precincts have reported. Hertel, the Dem, has claimed victory already despite trailing ever so slightly. The uncounted precincts must be heavily blue. That would give the Dems a 20 to 18 majority.

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I think Biden came across as tone deaf relative to economic issues afflicting blue collar folks in that speech.

The state Senate race to watch is Hertel versus Hornberger. Very expensive race. About 92 percent of precincts have reported. Hertel, the Dem, has claimed victory already despite trailing ever so slightly. The uncounted precincts must be heavily blue. That would give the Dems a 20 to 18 majority.

Thus no tie breaker… 1 vote in the senate and two in the house… you can’t get a much thinner margin than that.

He may very well have but in other blue collar places with vulnerable Democrats they have overperformed his approval numbers sort of “defying gravity” if you will. So what reason does a blue collar person in Arizona go “threat to Democracy? Well fuck you too!” When somebody in Ohio were the Representative around Toledo, Marcy Kaptur was gerrymandered with the first tier of counties across to Indiana and she won anyways despite all the additional Republicans for example. One expects a clear pattern across the country. It didn’t happen. I liked the theory I saw last night on CNN… people looked at the individual candidates… all politics really was local.

[MWmetalhead]

That's fair. I think abortion was the equalizer in many instances.

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That's fair. I think abortion was the equalizer in many instances.

I did hear anecdotes about lots of new voters when I went to the polling place with my girlfriend last night so she could vote. I voted early as I always do.

The big winner was Democracy and not in a Trump-Biden way but rather in a people getting involved and giving a damn one way or the other.

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

Maricopa same day election vote will be counted throughout the day. However, Kornacki was saying on Morning Joe that Kelly(D) has a larger lead than Biden did at this point in time.

Clark County NV has a lot of of mail in vote left along with Washoe County. Should be close.

The Dems are in a decent position in the Senate but going to lose the House.

[Matt]

Georgia is going to a runoff.

[TC Talks]

[MWmetalhead]

Hertel indeed has taken a roughly 300 vote lead in Senate district number 12 with roughly 99 percent of precincts now reported.

Districts 9, 12 and 30 have not yet been called by the AP. GOP candidates lead by razor thin margins in the other two races.

Even if the GOP were to sweep all three, it would be a 19-19 split with Dems controlling thanks to Gilchrist.

[TC Talks]

Sarah Palin lost a House seat in Alaska... Wasn't she the Governor or something?

[MWmetalhead]

Whitmer beat Dixon by more than 22 points in Oakland County:

https://www.freep.com/elections/results ... =key-races

That is a truly stunning margin of victory.

Whitmer also won by 10 points in Kent County and by 5 points in Macomb County.

[TC Talks]

Kent county has really gone blue, they voted for Democrats across the board. That is a stunning shift that gives Democrats a huuge advantage in the state