Election predictions thread

[bmw]

I'm going to say:

Whitmer by 2.5
MI8 - Kildee (D)
MI7 - Slotkin (D)
MI3 - Gibbs (R)

House Overall - Republicans Pick up 36 seats

Senate:

[Honeyman]

Don't follow Michigan politics but I'll say Whitmer wins.

I'll throw out 28 seat gain for the GOP's in the house.

Senate: Republicans 51 Democrats 48
(Georgia goes to a runoff)

[Rate This]

Beemer, can you post the rules for our bet in here too so I know what I’m looking for?

My predictions and some thoughts:
Republicans gain 15-20 in the house.

Democrats win in Pennsylvania, Georgia Wisconsin and Arizona. Republicans get Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio. So the senate would be 51-49 Democrat.

Whitmer, Benson and Nessel win re-election but not before the three Republicans make a shit show out of it with fraud claims after the absentee ballots come in at 5am Wednesday having declared victory up 10-15 points at 11pm.

Some questions that will probably be answered in due time:
Is there a surprise influx of Democrats over abortion or does inflation rule the day?

How many Republicans claim fraud and will any of the statewide candidates here claim victory at 11pm before the absentee ballots come in and claim fraud when the lead goes away or it becomes nearly tied?

Just how accurate were the polls and was there any Trump supporter non-response bias or were Democrats under-counted?

Which party did the better job of getting its supporters to turn out?

[bmw]

Beemer, can you post the rules for our bet in here too so I know what I’m looking for?

I propose a friendly bet then. A forum pic bet. The winner gets to choose the loser's forum picture, which must be kept as your forum picture for 2 weeks.

Here's the bet:
I win if all of the following happens:
-Republicans take the House
-Republicans win the Senate race in NC
-Republicans win at least 2 of the 4 following Senate races: GA, PA, AZ, NV
-Republicans outperform the RCP polling average (by at least 0.1 percentage points) as it exists on election day in at least 3 of the 5 Senate races above (NV, PA, GA, NC, AZ)

You win if any of the above 4 propositions fails.

I will be kinda ticked off if you win this bet on nothing more than Dems outperforming the polling average. There's a lot of R-leaning polls as of late that I'm getting a bit concerned about that average.

[Honeyman]

This is a great bet! Can the rest of us play by "suggesting" pictures?

[audiophile]

I don't know any republicans that will answer a poll...

[bmw]

This is a great bet! Can the rest of us play by "suggesting" pictures?

Sure. Especially since it will be some time before we have final official numbers which will affect the polling average part of the bet. Also the chance of a GA runoff could delay the outcome of this bet for a while.

[Honeyman]

This is a great bet! Can the rest of us play by "suggesting" pictures?

Sure. Especially since it will be some time before we have final official numbers which will affect the polling average part of the bet. Also the chance of a GA runoff could delay the outcome of this bet for a while.

Cool! Thinking Marjorie Taylor Greene for RT and leaning Bernie for you.....but need to give this more serious thought.

[TC Talks]

I don't know any republicans that will answer a poll...

I don't know any democrat with a land line.

[Deleted User 9015]

I don't know any republicans that will answer a poll...

Jim Kolbe will.

[TC Talks]

I'm not participating, but I'll throw in a respectable bottle of Kentucky Bourbon to the winner.

Good luck to everyone.

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

Benson wins by 6-7%.
Whitmer wins by 2-3%.
Dana loses by 1%.
John James cruises by Carl Marlinga by 7%.
Michelle Smith defeats Nate Shannon by 2%.

Proposal 1 fails in a close one. Proposal 2 passes by 10%. Proposal 3 passes by 2%.

[Bryce]

I don't know any republicans that will answer a poll...

I don't know any democrat with a land line.

TurkeyTop is a Socialist. Pretty much the same thing as a Democrat. He only has a landline. Of course he is Canadian, so that may not count.

[Rate This]

Benson wins by 6-7%.
Whitmer wins by 2-3%.
Dana loses by 1%.
John James cruises by Carl Marlinga by 7%.
Michelle Smith defeats Nate Shannon by 2%.

Proposal 1 fails in a close one. Proposal 2 passes by 10%. Proposal 3 passes by 2%.

Good point… I forgot the proposals… I’m gonna say proposals 1 and 2 pass easily and 3 wins narrowly.

[FakeAndyStuart]

Whitmer wins and drags along a lot of D's with her, including Nessel. Probably the only coattails race in the country.

Fetterman wins, narrowly. Oz doesn't concede.
Vance wins by a BCH in Ohio, and Ryan does concede.
Georgia is a runoff.

Senate stays 50/50 and House goes R by less than 15 seats. McCarthy does not get Speaker on first vote, and D's refuse to help him.

Overall, Congress gets nothing done for two full years, and campaigning for President starts Nov 9th, 2022.