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2022 Midterm Polling Thread

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MotorCityRadioFreak
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Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by MotorCityRadioFreak » Tue Aug 23, 2022 1:53 am

Rate This wrote:
Thu Aug 18, 2022 11:19 pm
August 18

Fabrizio / Anzalone
Michigan Governor:
Gretchen Whitmer (D) 51 Tudor Dixon (R) 46

FOX News
Wisconsin Governor:
Tony Evers (D) 49 Tim Michels (R) 46

Wisconsin Governor:
Mandela Barnes (D) 50 Ron Johnson (R) 46

Arizona Senate:
Mark Kelly (D) 50 Blake Masters (R) 42

Arizona Governor:
Katie Hobbs (D) 47 Kari Lake (R) 44

Civitas / Cygnal
North Carolina Senate:
Ted Budd (R) 42 Cherie Beasley (D) 42
Are those two newcomers in North Carolina?


They/them, non-binary and proud.

Remember that “2000 Mules” was concocted by a circus of elephants.
The right needs to stop worry about what’s between people’s legs. Instead, they should focus on what’s between their ears.
Audacity sucks.

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Honeyman
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Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by Honeyman » Tue Aug 23, 2022 3:11 am

MotorCityRadioFreak wrote:
Tue Aug 23, 2022 1:53 am
Rate This wrote:
Thu Aug 18, 2022 11:19 pm
August 18

Fabrizio / Anzalone
Michigan Governor:
Gretchen Whitmer (D) 51 Tudor Dixon (R) 46

FOX News
Wisconsin Governor:
Tony Evers (D) 49 Tim Michels (R) 46

Wisconsin Governor:
Mandela Barnes (D) 50 Ron Johnson (R) 46

Arizona Senate:
Mark Kelly (D) 50 Blake Masters (R) 42

Arizona Governor:
Katie Hobbs (D) 47 Kari Lake (R) 44

Civitas / Cygnal
North Carolina Senate:
Ted Budd (R) 42 Cherie Beasley (D) 42
Are those two newcomers in North Carolina?
Budd is in the House now. Beasley is a state Supreme Court Judge. They're running for Burr's seat who decided not to run.


The censorship king from out of state.

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Rate This
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Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by Rate This » Wed Aug 24, 2022 11:17 pm

August 23

Trafalgar Group
Colorado Senate:
Michael Bennett (D) 47 Joe O'Dea (R) 42

Colorado Governor:
Jared Polis (D) 47 Heidi Ganahl (R) 42

Berkeley IGS
California Governor:
Gavin Newsom (D) 55 Brian Dahle (R) 31

WNYT-TV Albany, NY / Survey USA
New York Governor:
Kathy Hochul (D) 55 Lee Zeldin (R) 31

August 24

Economist / YouGov
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 44 Republicans 39

Politico / Morning Consult
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 47 Republicans 42

Politico also ran this which I'll throw in for fun...
2024 Republican Nomination:
Trump 57
Desantis 18
Pence 8
Haley 3
Cheney 3
Rubio 1
Scott 1
Christie 1
Pompeo 0



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Rate This
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Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by Rate This » Fri Aug 26, 2022 11:23 pm

August 25

Emerson
Pennsylvania Senate:
John Fetterman (D) 48 Mehmet Oz (R) 44

Pennsylvania Governor:
Josh Shapiro (D) 47 Doug Mastriano (R) 44

2024 Pennsylvania General Election:
Trump 47 Biden 42

Franklin & Marshall College
Pennsylvania Senate:
John Fetterman (D) 43 Mehmet Oz (R) 30

Pennsylvania Governor:
Josh Shapiro (D) 44 Doug Mastriano (R) 33

MIRS / Mitchell Research
Michigan 10th Congressional District:
John James (R) 47 Carl Marlinga (D) 38

August 26

Michigan News Source / Trafalgar
Michigan Governor:
Gretchen Whitmer (D) 49 Tudor Dixon (R) 45

EPIC-MRA
Michigan Governor:
Gretchen Whitmer (D) 50 Tudor Dixon (R) 39

SLU / YouGov
Missouri Senate:
Eric Schmitt (R) 49 Trudi Valentine (D) 38

Emerson
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 45 Democrats 44

2024 National General Election:
Biden 43 Trump 42

Rasmussen Reports
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 47 Democrats 42



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Honeyman
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Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by Honeyman » Fri Aug 26, 2022 11:27 pm

43-30? Are they saying 1/4 of the state is undecided?


The censorship king from out of state.

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Rate This
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Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by Rate This » Sat Aug 27, 2022 12:13 am

Honeyman wrote:
Fri Aug 26, 2022 11:27 pm
43-30? Are they saying 1/4 of the state is undecided?
Must be… it’s early still. I think some polls give you an unsure option and others make you pick one and don’t give an out. Note the other Pennsylvania poll is much closer to 100%. It’s also possible this poll was screwed up or wonky somehow.



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FakeAndyStuart
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Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by FakeAndyStuart » Sun Aug 28, 2022 5:23 pm

Rate This wrote:
Sat Aug 27, 2022 12:13 am
Honeyman wrote:
Fri Aug 26, 2022 11:27 pm
43-30? Are they saying 1/4 of the state is undecided?
Must be… it’s early still. I think some polls give you an unsure option and others make you pick one and don’t give an out. Note the other Pennsylvania poll is much closer to 100%. It’s also possible this poll was screwed up or wonky somehow.
Neither screwed up or wonky. Just a little more honest than most..
In the Franklin and Marshall poll results, the poll takers wrote:Democrat John Fetterman currently holds an advantage over Republican Mehmet Oz in the 2022 race for Pennsylvania US Senator, 43% to 30%, although the race is a bit closer when those who are leaning toward a candidate are included (45% to 36%, Fetterman). Fetterman is viewed more favorably (43%) than unfavorably (36%) by the state’s voters, while Oz tends to be viewed more unfavorably (57%) than favorably (27%). More voters believe Fetterman best understands the concerns of Pennsylvanians (52% to 28%) and is closest to their views on social issues (46% to 32%), but the two candidates are relatively close when it comes to being viewed as having policies that will improve voters’ economic circumstances (37% to 33%).
Pretty deep dive into PA voters.



MotorCityRadioFreak
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Location: Warren, MI

Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by MotorCityRadioFreak » Sun Aug 28, 2022 6:04 pm

Keep running the awesome ads, and the wizard has no chance.


They/them, non-binary and proud.

Remember that “2000 Mules” was concocted by a circus of elephants.
The right needs to stop worry about what’s between people’s legs. Instead, they should focus on what’s between their ears.
Audacity sucks.

User avatar
FakeAndyStuart
Posts: 486
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2015 7:07 pm
Location: MOVED! Now residing in CurmudgeonLand

Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by FakeAndyStuart » Tue Aug 30, 2022 2:15 pm

I think polling right now is a giant waste of time. Here's the current state of the Ohio Senate race:

This poll (Dem) says it's a dead heat,

https://www.vindy.com/news/local-news/2 ... nate-race/

While I don't know if I trust it, there are some interesting favorability numbers that show Ryan much more favorably thought of by the electorate than Vance.

Then you have something called the "Decision Desk" , which appears to be right-leaning.. but I can't find the formula that says a 1 point polling advantage gives Vance a 50% probability advantage. Wild. This one could go either way. Especially if McConnell and his cronies bow out to try to save Oz and others.

Image



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Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by Rate This » Thu Sep 01, 2022 10:27 pm

The storms Monday fried my computer so now I'm back up and running...

August 28

Trafalgar Group
Wisconsin Senate:
Mandela Barnes (D) 49 Ron Johnson (R) 47

Wisconsin Governor:
Tim Michels (R) 48 Tony Evers (D) 48

Missouri Scout
Missouri Senate:
Eric Schmitt (R) 51 Trudi Valentine (D) 40

Albuquerque Journal
New Mexico Governor:
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) 47 Mark Ronchetti (R) 40

CBS News Battleground Tracker
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 47 Democrats 45

August 29

Trafalgar Group
Arizona Senate:
Mark Kelly (D) 48 Blake Masters (R) 44

Arizona Governor:
Kari Lake (R) 47 Katie Hobbs (D) 46

August 30

Emerson
Georgia Senate:
Herschel Walker (R) 46 Raphael Warnock (D) 44

Georgia Governor:
Brian Kemp (R) 48 Stacey Abrams (D) 44

Georgia 2024 General Election:
Trump 51 Biden 46

Trafalgar Group
South Carolina Governor:
Henry McMaster (R) 51 Joe Cunningham (D) 43

August 31

Trafalgar Group
Georgia Senate:
Herschel Walker (R) 48 Raphael Warnock (D) 47

Georgia Governor:
Brian Kemp (R) 51 Stacey Abrams (D) 44

Susquehanna
Pennsylvania Senate:
John Fetterman (D) 49 Mehmet Oz (R) 44

PPP
North Carolina Senate:
Cheri Beasley (D) 42 Ted Budd (R) 41

Colorado Senate:
Michael Bennett (D) 46 Joe O'Dea (R) 35

Economist / YouGov
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 46 Republicans 38

Quinnipiac
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 47 Republicans 43

Politico / Morning Consult
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 47 Republicans 42

September 1

Fabrizio / Anzalone
Nevada Senate:
Catherine Cortez Masto (D) 48 Adam Laxalt (R) 47

Nevada Governor:
Joe Lombardo (R) 48 Steve Sisolak (D) 46

Trafalgar Group
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 47 Democrats 41

Wall Street Journal
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 47 Republicans 44

2024 General Election:
Biden 50 Trump 44



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Rate This
Posts: 13968
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:17 am

Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by Rate This » Fri Sep 02, 2022 10:51 pm

September 2

Rasmussen Reports
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 47 Democrats 42

Trafalgar Group
Washington (State of) Senate:
Patty Murray (D) 49 Tiffany Smiley (R) 46



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Rate This
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Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:17 am

Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by Rate This » Sat Sep 03, 2022 9:08 pm

September 3

Trafalgar Group / Insider Advantage
New York Governor:
Kathy Hochul (D) 48 Lee Zeldin (R) 43



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Rate This
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Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:17 am

Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by Rate This » Tue Sep 06, 2022 10:06 pm

September 5

Insider Advantage
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 45 Republicans 44

September 6

KSTP-TV Minneapolis/St. Paul / SuveyUSA
Minnesota Governor:
Tim Walz (D) 51 Scott Jensen (R) 33



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Rate This
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Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:17 am

Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by Rate This » Wed Sep 07, 2022 9:45 pm

September 7

WDIV-TV / The Detroit News
Michigan Governor:
Gretchen Whitmer (D) 48 Tudor Dixon (R) 35

Trafalgar Group
North Carolina Senate:
Ted Budd (R) 47 Cheri Beasley (D) 44

Susquehanna
Florida Senate:
Marco Rubio (R) 47 Val Demings (D) 44

Florida Governor:
Ron DeSantis (R) 47 Charlie Crist (D) 43

Fabrizio / Anzalone
Florida Senate:
Marco Rubio (R) 49 Val Demings (D) 47

Florida Governor:
Ron DeSantis (R) 50 Charlie Crist (D) 47

University of Houston
Texas Governor:
Greg Abbott (R) 49 Beto O'Rourke (D) 42

PPP
Washington Senate:
Patty Murray (D) 48 Tiffany Smiley (R) 39

Economist / YouGov
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 44 Republicans 38



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Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by Rate This » Mon Sep 12, 2022 11:13 pm

September 8

FOX 5 Atlanta, GA / Insider Advantage
Georgia Senate:
Herschel Walker (R) 47 Raphael Warnock (D) 44

Georgia Governor:
Brian Kemp (R) 50 Stacey Abrams (D) 42

FOX 35 Orlando, FL / Insider Advantage
Florida Senate:
Marco Rubio (R) 46 Val Demings (D) 44

Florida Governor:
Ron DeSantis (R) 50 Charlie Crist (D) 45

WHDH-TV Boston, MA / Emerson
Massachusetts Governor:
Maura Healey (D) 52 Geoff Diehl (R) 34

NPR/PBS/Marist
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 48 Republicans 44

September 9

Emerson
Arizona Senate:
Mark Kelly (D) 47 Blake Masters (R) 45

Arizona Governor:
Katie Hobbs (D) 46 Kari Lake (R) 46

Arizona 2024 General Election:
Trump 44 Biden 41

FOX 10 / Insider Advantage
Arizona Senate:
Mark Kelly (D) 45 Blake Masters (R) 39

Arizona Governor:
Katie Hobbs (D) 44 Kari Lake (R) 43

The Hill / Emerson
New York Governor:
Kathy Hochul (D) 50 Lee Zeldin (R) 35

Trafalgar Group
Vermont Senate:
Peter Welch (D) 50 Gerald Malloy (R) 43

Vermont Governor:
Phil Scott (R) 68 Brenda Siegel (D) 15

Rasmussen Reports
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 46 Democrats 42

September 12

Cincinnati Enquirer / Suffolk
Ohio Senate:
Tim Ryan (D) 47 J.D. Vance (R) 46

Ohio Governor:
Mike DeWine (R) 54 Nan Whaley (D) 39

Trafalgar Group
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 48 Democrats 42



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