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Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

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Honeyman
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Re: Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by Honeyman » Mon Apr 25, 2022 7:50 pm

I DO understand beemers constant assertions about questioning the government and the uncertainties of any future issues with the vaccine. I get that. But it truly is INDISPUTABLE that you are less likely to DIE, if you are vaccinated. I don't get why anyone would want to play Russian roulette with their life.


The censorship king from out of state.

kager
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Re: Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by kager » Mon Apr 25, 2022 8:00 pm

Honeyman wrote:
Mon Apr 25, 2022 7:50 pm
it truly is INDISPUTABLE that you are less likely to DIE, if you are vaccinated. I don't get why anyone would want to play Russian roulette with their life.
Yeah, pick your poison...

Image

https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/all-injurie ... -of-dying/

Stay safe. Do nothing.


"The problem with communication is the illusion that it has occurred."

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Honeyman
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Re: Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by Honeyman » Mon Apr 25, 2022 8:06 pm

kager wrote:
Mon Apr 25, 2022 8:00 pm
Honeyman wrote:
Mon Apr 25, 2022 7:50 pm
it truly is INDISPUTABLE that you are less likely to DIE, if you are vaccinated. I don't get why anyone would want to play Russian roulette with their life.
Yeah, pick your poison...

https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/all-injurie ... -of-dying/

Stay safe. Do nothing.
Ouch.....I cycle 100+ a week....

But an accident is different. That's why they call em that. If you know a vaccine can virtually prevent you from dying from a generational virus, why wouldn't you take it?


The censorship king from out of state.

km1125
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Re: Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by km1125 » Tue Apr 26, 2022 10:05 am

RE: the 'causes of death' chart... I wonder what all is included in "all preventable causes of death"??

Still surprised that even though we should have learned something in how to treat this thing, we did (I think) learn not to put sick people in old-folks homes, we had several treatments such as monoclonal antibodies, and we had multiple vaccines available there were still more deaths in 2021 than there were in 2020.

On top of the vaccines, we also now have at least two COVID "morning after" treatments that are supposed to be at least 90% effective at reducing severe illness or death. I would think in 2022 and going forward, COVID deaths are going to drop off that list entirely.



bmw
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Re: Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by bmw » Tue Apr 26, 2022 10:06 am

Honeyman wrote:
Mon Apr 25, 2022 7:50 pm
I DO understand beemers constant assertions about questioning the government and the uncertainties of any future issues with the vaccine. I get that. But it truly is INDISPUTABLE that you are less likely to DIE, if you are vaccinated. I don't get why anyone would want to play Russian roulette with their life.
The risk vs. reward of getting the vaccine varies drastically by age. And I mean DRASTICALLY. Per the CDC's official numbers as of today:

0.10% of all Covid deaths are Age 0-17 (this group is 25.7% of the population)
2.44% of all Covid deaths are Age 18-39 (this group is 31.8% of the population)

Summary:
2.54% of Covid deaths are occurring in 57.5% of the population
97.46% of Covid deaths are occurring in 42.5% of the population

That amounts to a 51x discrepancy; that is, a random person pulled from the under-40 age group is 51x less likely to die from Covid than is a random person pulled from the 40+ age group. And the discrepancy for children? 345x. A child under the age of 18 who gets Covid is 345x less likely to die from Covid than an adult who gets it.

EVEN IF the vaccine were to reduce your odds of dying by 10x, that still leaves age as a larger factor than vaccination status (by an order of 34x for children and 5x for people under 40) in predicting the outcome of a Covid infection.

My point in all of this? There is an argument to be made that "the uncertainties of any future issues with the vaccine" as you put it outweighs the rewards of getting the vaccine, certainly for children, and arguably for anybody under 40 - in other words, over half of the population.

As an aside, assuming 3 in 4 children have had Covid, the mortality rate ends up being about 1 in 87,000, or 0.0011 percent.



km1125
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Re: Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by km1125 » Tue May 03, 2022 4:40 pm

Hmmmm... this is interesting..

Omicron caused spike in deaths in vaccinated people, analysis finds, though unvaccinated remain most at risk


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/omicr ... latestnews

One of the interesting statements:
"....found that 42% of COVID fatalities in January and February were of vaccinated people, compared with 23% of the dead in September... "


Also.. further down the page, you'd see "Pfizer... posted stronger-than-expected earnings... boosted by sales of its COVID vaccine and antiviral. COVID vaccine revenue grew to $13.2 billion from $3.2 billion, while sales of its antiviral Paxlovid rose to $1.5 billion. The company said it expects COVID vaccine sales of about $32 billion in 2022 and antiviral sales of about $22 billion."


And I'm still wordering why China is getting slammed right now on COVID. Didn't they have a massive vaccine campaign last year??



bmw
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Re: Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by bmw » Tue May 03, 2022 4:53 pm

The article notes that most of those deaths were among vaccinated people over the age of 75. I'd be real curious to see how those percentages compare for people under age 75. Is there any difference at all?



bmw
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Re: Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by bmw » Thu May 05, 2022 12:53 pm

Looking at the data today, that R-value has climbed from a 0.80 to a 0.84, meaning, the correlation between vaccination rate and daily case rate continues to get stronger. Specifically, that the higher the percentage of the population that is vaccinated, the higher the daily case rate. btw - the highest possible R-value is 1.00. So a value of 0.84 is quite strong.



bmw
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Re: Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by bmw » Fri May 13, 2022 7:19 am

Up another fraction today. Now at 0.85 correlation. The 8 states with the highest vaccination rates? Literally a perfect 8 for 8 for having the 8 highest daily case rates. Time for one of my fun graphs that you all hate. The relationship is no longer just linear; it's exponential.

Image



Matt
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Re: Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by Matt » Fri May 13, 2022 8:09 am

bmw wrote:
Fri May 13, 2022 7:19 am
Up another fraction today. Now at 0.85 correlation. The 8 states with the highest vaccination rates? Literally a perfect 8 for 8 for having the 8 highest daily case rates. Time for one of my fun graphs that you all hate. The relationship is no longer just linear; it's exponential.

Image
Where's the death chart?


What's more pathetic: harassing an old man who is paying to do a radio show or supporting a grifter like Trump?

bmw
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Re: Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by bmw » Fri May 13, 2022 8:52 am

Perfectly fair question. But with this second Omicron wave still on the way up, a death chart is only helpful about 3-4 weeks after the peak of the wave. I'll put one together whenever that time comes.

I suspect we may already be near peak because this second wave, by virtue of how many people still have newly acquired natural immunity from the Omicron wave of just a few months ago, should be significantly muted compared to the first one. I mean, we're pushing to upwards of 80% of the population having had Covid, and recent studies show that roughly 10% of all current Omicron cases are re-infections in people who had past variants. That means that 90% of the new cases are limited to that last 20% of the population who hasn't had Covid yet, and once most of those last 20% get it (probably half of those, as 10% of the population or so will probably never get Covid for various reasons), assuming re-infection rates remain at 10% or less, then in theory we're close to a point where only 10% of the population is even susceptible to getting Covid (ie, something damn close to herd immunity). The million dollar question is whether those re-infection rates end up creeping up over time. We can only hope that the answer is a big fat NO.



km1125
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Re: Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by km1125 » Fri May 13, 2022 11:41 am

With all the people who've been vaccinated and have already had COVID, I'm wondering how the WH (or is it the CDC? same difference?) is predicting that 100,000,000 Americans might be infected this fall. That's almost 30% in a few months when it took over two years just to get over 50% (and that was without vaccines!)



bmw
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Re: Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by bmw » Sat May 14, 2022 10:34 am

km1125 wrote:
Fri May 13, 2022 11:41 am
With all the people who've been vaccinated and have already had COVID, I'm wondering how the WH (or is it the CDC? same difference?) is predicting that 100,000,000 Americans might be infected this fall. That's almost 30% in a few months when it took over two years just to get over 50% (and that was without vaccines!)
That projection is completely unsupported by current studies. Most scientists agree that somewhere between 75 and 85 percent of the population has already had Covid. Even using a conservative estimate of 70%, and if only 10% of those are getting re-infected (which is what current numbers suggest), that leaves only 37% of the population to even be in the pool of people that can be infected. 100 million people would mean that 4 out of 5 people who can get infected will get infected this fall. And that doesn't even account for the current wave which could push the number of those having had at least one infection, by fall, to easily upwards of 85%, at which point there wouldn't even be 100 million infectable people.



bmw
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Re: Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by bmw » Fri Jun 03, 2022 4:37 pm

Matt wrote:
Fri May 13, 2022 8:09 am
Where's the death chart?
Ok Matt, as promised, here is the death rate chart (per-capita vs. full vaccination rate). I waited to post this chart until 2 weeks of dwindling case counts as death counts lag behind. The final result? Almost exactly twice as many people are dying from Covid in the highest vaccinated as in the least vaccinated states. The variation is high enough such that the correlation is weak, but it is on the higher side of weak (0.4 is the cutoff for moderate and the actual value is 0.32).

Image



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FakeAndyStuart
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Re: Almost without exception, the highest vaccinated states have the most Covid

Post by FakeAndyStuart » Fri Jun 03, 2022 5:16 pm

While many people here may appreciate your detailed analysis, I reject the basis of "state based" statistics. Someone in northern Ohio can easily gamble on sports in Michigan, someone in western Indiana will easily be able to get an abortion in Illinois. State borders are mostly arbitrary and with no actual regulation between states, I find your analysis less than effective in telling a story. Thanks anyway..



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