False Optimism in Ukraine Coverage

[Deleted User 9015]

There are themes that I am noticing in the coverage of the Russian invasion of Ukraine that I feel could be giving false hope to people watching from afar.

One of those themes is that the Russian army has a certain level of ineptitude that makes them ill-prepared and almost an enemy of themselves. While yeah, it does appear that they did make some mistakes regarding logistics and such in their planning, it appears to me that the media is over-emphasizing this as some sort of barrier that will prevent Russia's success. In reality, especially considering where Russia is in its encroachment into Ukraine, it doesn't seem like these missteps are insurmountable and it appears Russia has the capacity and resources to fix this problem over the next few days.

Another theme is that the Ukraine army and citizens have overperformed in preventing Russia from taking territory. The breadth of Russia's aims in deploying a strategy to overtake cities doesn't seem to be completely understood here and I think that there should be consideration of how difficult warfare in an urban setting can be. I was reading last night about this, and it seems they are going to be laying siege to several cities. That will take time. It seems to me that the people and army are doing what you would expect, but not that they have a recipe for success, considering their current resources.

And the last I want to bring up is the impact of cutting off their economy from many other industrialized countries. It doesn't seem that hurting the oligarch wealth is something that Putin considers as a concern significant enough to prevent him from carrying this out, no matter how long it takes. The Russian economy sure is taking a hit, but it seems to me that Putin is putting his money on things returning to "normal" with some symbolic sanctions in place after he is done in the Ukraine. So while the media is selling the idea that external pressure can influence this thing, it doesn't appear to be the case.

I would love to see Ukraine come out on top on this, but frankly, I don't see that happening and it seems to me that the media is giving a false impression that Ukraine has a fighting chance. Ultimately, even though the Russian military has exposed a weird lack of planning considering how long the build-up was, there is just too much power there. Selling the idea that their stumbles, Ukraine's heart, or that the international community can stop the inevitable is just a fictitious description of what is truly happening.

Anyone else notice this or am I way off?

[zzand]

Agree 100 perecnt

[bmw]

I can't say I disagree with any of that.

I will add this though: The one major negative for Russia long-term is that Putin has made himself the most hated person in the world, including within Russia where I suspect that in reality, he has an approval rating right now probably in the single digits. I don't know exactly how well liked he was within his own country prior to this, but he's going to have significant problems in dealing with his own people for the forseeable future.

[Deleted User 9015]

I can't say I disagree with any of that.

I will add this though: The one major negative for Russia long-term is that Putin has made himself the most hated person in the world, including within Russia where I suspect that in reality, he has an approval rating right now probably in the single digits. I don't know exactly how well liked he was within his own country prior to this, but he's going to have significant problems in dealing with his own people for the forseeable future.

I agree. He is quickly reaching that rare height that only bin Laden and Hitler were able to reach. He is just about the height of Hussein right now it seems.

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

Ukraine is going to keep fighting. Yes, they are likely to eventually lose, but this is not the cake walk idiot Putin expected. Plus, don’t underestimate the weapons that they have been given. What Putin thought would take 10 days will take 10 weeks and snuff out any desire to continue westward in to Poland etc. We have a united NATO and pretty well united EU as a result of the his arrogance thinking he would be greeted as some kind of liberator. He’s done now really. And if he thinks about attacking Poland to shut down their power grid in eastern Poland, it will be considered an act of war.

[craig11152]

If he were to attack Poland, which I hope he isn't that stupid to do, on paper it's an act of war against all 30 NATO countries. If NATO stands by that agreement Russia cannot win that war even if God forbid they went nuclear.

[km1125]

I doubt he'll EVER go into Poland. He'll get to Kyiv (eventually) and end up cutting the country in half, essentially taking the eastern half and letting the western half survive (if they can) but only if they sign something that says they'll NEVER join NATO. They should NEVER sign onto those conditions, and Finland and Norway should be starting the process to join too.

Perhaps Putin can start to build a nice wall to separate West and East Ukraine and have guards shoot anyone to tries to leave?

[craig11152]

I follow a military historian from Australia on tictoc. He says things are going to get worse because Putin is a bit desperate at the slow progress. He says Putin appears to be increasingly isolated within his own power structure in this war.

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

I have heard several experts say that Russia will use bio weapons like they did in Chechnya. By the way, that homophobic tool puppet that briefly ruled Chechnya during its transition to communism got killed yesterday outside Kyiv. A silver lining at least....

[Matt]

I follow a military historian from Australia on tictoc.

Why are you on a Chinese run app?