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The pandemic will be over by May 1

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bmw
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The pandemic will be over by May 1

Post by bmw » Thu Jan 13, 2022 10:32 am

...at least if you believe the projections coming out of the IHME, which I believe will pan out. Omichron did and is continuing to do what the vaccine couldn't: Build herd immunity. Omichron is going to take the total number of people who had Covid from about 60% of the population up to 90%.

Cases are projected to plunge from 6,000,000 a day to 20,000 a day (a 99.7% reduction in daily cases) between now and May 1. And these are actual cases, not just reported cases. Daily reported cases in the entire US may be under 5k per day by then.

Hospitalizations are projected to decline by 99.3% from 273,000 beds filled today to just 2,000 filled by May 1. And the number of patients in an ICU bed is projected to drop below 500 total nationwide by then.

This, IMO, is cause for celebration.



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audiophile
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Re: The pandemic will be over by May 1

Post by audiophile » Thu Jan 13, 2022 10:37 am

So why the fuss over Omicron?


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bmw
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Re: The pandemic will be over by May 1

Post by bmw » Thu Jan 13, 2022 10:41 am

That's a great question. I said in here literally in the first week (back in late November) that I believed Omichron could end up filling the immunity gap and quickly and more safely than past variants. And that is precisely what has happened. Even though total hospitalizations are up slightly, per-case hospitalization is down SHARPLY, like, on the magnitude of 80% or more.

Yet - we have Kamala Harris bragging today that a bunch of new at-home-test-kits will be available by next week. SO WHAT? We're already practically at the peak, there was nothing we could do about, and quite frankly I think we should have just let this variant run its course (which, it largely has despite government attempts to cause otherwise). By the time those test kits are available, it won't much matter. Cases will possibly already be on the plunge downwards by next week.

I wish that once data started supporting the early findings started pouring in that the government had simply taken a "let it run its course" approach with an end-goal in sight of the pandemic ending this Spring. That could have been so uplifting to people with Covid fatigue.



bmw
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Re: The pandemic will be over by May 1

Post by bmw » Thu Jan 13, 2022 10:44 am

And when this is all over, I want to know when we're going to have an open and honest discussion about what a pointless disaster the lockdowns were, the masks were, the vaccine mandates were, and just about every other government reaction to Covid was. People will look back on us in 50 years and laugh the same way we look back on people from a few hundred years ago and laugh at some of the things they tried to cure illness.



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audiophile
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Re: The pandemic will be over by May 1

Post by audiophile » Thu Jan 13, 2022 11:31 am

I think REAL masks would have helped, not the worthless krap they told us to wear.


Ask not what your country can do FOR you; ask what they are about to do TO YOU!!

km1125
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Re: The pandemic will be over by May 1

Post by km1125 » Thu Jan 13, 2022 11:42 am

bmw wrote:
Thu Jan 13, 2022 10:44 am
And when this is all over, I want to know when we're going to have an open and honest discussion about what a pointless disaster the lockdowns were, the masks were, the vaccine mandates were, and just about every other government reaction to Covid was. People will look back on us in 50 years and laugh the same way we look back on people from a few hundred years ago and laugh at some of the things they tried to cure illness.
Yes. Reminds me of how we used leeches in blood-letting to try and "cure" patients. We stopped doing that some time ago, but leeches are still around.

Now they're frequently found in Congress and other legislative bodies, but they still suck the blood out of anything they can.



Reagan4prez
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Re: The pandemic will be over by May 1

Post by Reagan4prez » Thu Jan 13, 2022 12:35 pm

Omicron vaccine will be available in March, just in time for it to be over.

Like everything it does, the government offers the worst solution.

But don’t worry, it’ll be mandated.



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Robert Faygo
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Re: The pandemic will be over by May 1

Post by Robert Faygo » Thu Jan 13, 2022 6:21 pm

bmw wrote:
Thu Jan 13, 2022 10:32 am
...at least if you believe the projections coming out of the IHME, which I believe will pan out. Omichron did and is continuing to do what the vaccine couldn't: Build herd immunity. Omichron is going to take the total number of people who had Covid from about 60% of the population up to 90%.

Cases are projected to plunge from 6,000,000 a day to 20,000 a day (a 99.7% reduction in daily cases) between now and May 1. And these are actual cases, not just reported cases. Daily reported cases in the entire US may be under 5k per day by then.

Hospitalizations are projected to decline by 99.3% from 273,000 beds filled today to just 2,000 filled by May 1. And the number of patients in an ICU bed is projected to drop below 500 total nationwide by then.

This, IMO, is cause for celebration.
On this we agree. I too think this will happen and it will indeed be cause for celebration.

I don't know, but I don't think their models take into account the new meds either which should be much more available by May. Here's hoping that shifts those drops even faster.


Wellllll... la de frickin da

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TC Talks
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Re: The pandemic will be over by May 1

Post by TC Talks » Thu Jan 13, 2022 6:37 pm

Do you realize how ridiculous this dialogue is? You're trying to compare the variant that was killing people at unprecedented rates last year with a variant that has proven itself to stay in the sinuses and give you flu-like symptoms.

Do you know how many unvaccinated people are still dying every week? Time to celebrate death eh?

What a pack of idiots.


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Robert Faygo
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Re: The pandemic will be over by May 1

Post by Robert Faygo » Thu Jan 13, 2022 8:45 pm

I am not celebrating the current situation which absolutely is tragic.

I will most definitely celebrate a time in the not too distant future when deaths drop to near zero, if these IHME models turn out to be accurate - which I think they are.

It's always been about getting to the end of this thing the fastest way possible with the fewest deaths possible, no matter how it happens.


Wellllll... la de frickin da

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TC Talks
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Re: The pandemic will be over by May 1

Post by TC Talks » Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:06 pm

Well we aren't there now, and we won't be in May. BMW is a reckless imbecile. I used to actually have respect for his positions in debate, but not after he allowed his mom to be placed at such a great risk to provide his stupid theories about vaccinations.


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bmw
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Re: The pandemic will be over by May 1

Post by bmw » Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:09 pm

TC Talks wrote:
Thu Jan 13, 2022 6:37 pm
Do you know how many unvaccinated people are still dying every week? Time to celebrate death eh?
It is all happening under the policies of the administration for whom you voted.



bmw
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Re: The pandemic will be over by May 1

Post by bmw » Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:13 pm

TC Talks wrote:
Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:06 pm
Well we aren't there now, and we won't be in May. BMW is a reckless imbecile. I used to actually have respect for his positions in debate, but not after he allowed his mom to be placed at such a great risk to provide his stupid theories about vaccinations.
Not sure why you're dragging my family into this conversation. I didn't make decisions for my mom. In fact, I encouraged her on about day 5 of her illness to get the monoclonal antibodies, which she decided not to do. And she was skeptical of the vaccine from day 1 - moreso than I was. I have re-worked my entire life the past month and a half in order to assist in giving her the around-the-clock care she needs. She's still on oxygen, though her condition is finally showing significant signs of improvement over the past few days, and her doctor thinks she's finally on the road to a reasonably speedy recovery. You have no idea what my life has been like for the past 6 weeks.

That aside, YOUR crackpot theory seems to be one of a perpetual pandemic without any end game.



MotorCityRadioFreak
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Re: The pandemic will be over by May 1

Post by MotorCityRadioFreak » Fri Jan 14, 2022 1:38 am

We heard this before; remember Trump said that the virus hates heat? We have no guarantee that another variant won't pop up even after a big summer dip like last year.


My mom taught me an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. It's too bad Repubes don't believe in prevention for COVID, but they can deny someone water waiting in a line to vote.

Reagan4prez
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Re: The pandemic will be over by May 1

Post by Reagan4prez » Fri Jan 14, 2022 6:51 am

TC Talks wrote:
Thu Jan 13, 2022 6:37 pm
Do you realize how ridiculous this dialogue is? You're trying to compare the variant that was killing people at unprecedented rates last year with a variant that has proven itself to stay in the sinuses and give you flu-like symptoms.

Do you know how many unvaccinated people are still dying every week? Time to celebrate death eh?

What a pack of idiots.
1.35 million people die in road crashes every year. 3,700 a day.

https://www.asirt.org/safe-travel/road-safety-facts/

But you pack of idiots still drive! You celebrate death!

#drivingbanorbust

Annual heart disease deaths: 659,000

Annual cancer deaths: 599,000

Annual Covid deaths: 385,000

“Derp, let’s focus on the lowest number!”



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