A look at Omicron spread vs vaccination rates in the 20 most populous cities

[bmw]

vaccinated individuals are MORE concerned about spreading the virus than the unvaccinated...

On what are you basing this assumption? Just because a person chooses not to get vaccinated doesn't mean they're not concerned about spreading the virus. It just means that for whatever reason they chose not to get vaccinated.

...and are getting tested at a much higher frequency and rate. This is especially true in large cities where testing availability is much more readily available to those that also have had (and still have) better access to vaccines.

Well, I looked at the top 20 biggest cities - so within that data, the latter portion of your statement is moot. As to your claim that vaccinated people are getting tested "much" more frequently than unvaccinated, do you have any data to back this claim up? My suspicion without any data otherwise would be the exact opposite - if you get vaccinated and you believe that you're protected from getting the virus, why would you get tested more often than people who are supposedly more susceptible to getting it? That doesn't even make sense.

Your data does not account for "discouraged" unvaccinated that don't see the need for getting tested - and couldn't test even if they wanted to. Especially with omicron.

Again, do you have any data to back that up?

You cutsie spreadsheets are just that ... cute. They have no basis in reality.

Wait a minute...weren't you the one accusing ME of confirmation bias? Pot, meet kettle. Every statement you made even prior this one was based on, by your own admission, your own personal suspicion. This spreadsheet is simply a representation of data. Your statements are nothing more than mere suspicion.

[Robert Faygo]

You have nothing to disprove what I'm postulating. You're literally making stuff up on your own - and posting like you're some kind of expert on this. Every chart you create ignores so many public health standards for compiling this kind of data, it's actually comical at this point. Ignoring variables does not make for solid data.

Why not get your bullshit published someplace of actual scientific value?

We are equally full of shit when it comes down to it.

Only trouble is the volumes of actual scientific data that is compiled by people that actually know what they are doing and is out there that clearly shows vaccines have saved countless lives and if more had partaken, could have saved countless others along with billions of dollars.

Your attempts at blame shifting because you were - and are - scientifically proven to be wrong about vaccines don't fly.

[Honeyman]

Robert is 100% correct.

The vast percentage of the people in hospital ICU's and dying are unvaxxed. If you have some numbers that disprove this fact bmw, please post them.

[bmw]

You have nothing to disprove what I'm postulating.

I have no idea who is right (re: unvaccinated getting tested at a much lower rate), but I can find out. The IHME publishes estimated actual daily cases. I can compare these to the reported numbers in the 5 least and most vaccinated states and see if a discrepancy exists. Because if there is any data out there whatsoever that actually accounts for varied testing rates, I'm sure the IHME incorporates such data into their models/projections. I'll post here my findings when I figure them out.

[bmw]

Robert is 100% correct.

The vast percentage of the people in hospital ICU's and dying are unvaxxed. If you have some numbers that disprove this fact bmw, please post them.

Let me be crystal clear on my position in this regard. As a preliminary matter, I've never disputed that unvaccinated people are ending up in the hospital and dying at higher rates (though I have noted that in recent months that discrepancy has been steadily shrinking).

My contention is that this is only half of the story. All the vaccine does reduce the PER INFECTION mortality rate. Robert Faygo talks about missing variables. The one variable here that nobody wants to acknowledge, is the TOTAL INFECTIONS. My contention is that because the vaccines are leaky vaccines, they're increasing the length of the pandemic and leading to more total infections. And at a point, we may still end up with more total deaths depending on just how many additional infections the vaccines are causing compared to if we had no vaccine at all (or at least if we were being much more selective in who should be vaccinated).

[bmw]

Here's the data, re: vaccinated vs unvaccinated testing rates.

I looked at the 5 least vaccinated states (Idaho, Wyoming, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana) and the 5 most vaccinated states (Vermont, Rhode Island, Maine, Connecticut, and Massachusetts). I looked at the 7-day moving average for the period of Dec 13-19 for reported cases and compared that to the IHME projection for all actual cases for Dec 16 (I would have chosen a more recent date but this is the last day of actual data they base their models from).

The average ratio of estimated actual infections to reported infections is 4.87 for the least vaccinated states and 4.20 for the most vaccinated states. This means that the IHME estimates that there are roughly 13% more unreported actual infections in the least vaccinated states than there are in the most vaccinated ones.

Granted, this is a small sample size, but this would suggest that Robert Faygo may be correct in that unvaccinated people are less likely to get tested than vaccinated people, but incorrect in suggesting that it is by a large margin. The data for this small of a sample size is barely statistically significant. I would want to expand this out to 10 states each side (20 states total).

[Robert Faygo]

Ok.

Now tell me how many people test at home, especially in big cities, get a result (either positive or negative) and don't report it. Then break it down by how many of these people are vaccinated vs. unvaccinated.

[Robert Faygo]

Then, when you're done with that, I'd like the numbers on the people that properly administer their home tests.

The next step, of course, is to give me a number on how many of these home tests are actually sensitive enough to give the correct results.

All of these must be broken down into categories of vaccinated vs. unvaccinated.

[bmw]

I'm pretty sure what you're asking for now is accounted for in the IHME projections.

Would you rather I use their estimated daily cases as opposed to the reported cases? Doing so would address the criticisms you have of using the reported cases as the metric, assuming you accept that the IHME reasonably accounts for these differences in their models. While I acknowledge the shortfall of using a metric (reported cases) that is only 20-30% of all actual cases, you haven't demonstrated any reason to believe that the other 70-80% of cases have significantly different ratios when comparing vaccinated to unvaccinated people. You've raised a lot of speculative challenges, but you haven't provided any substance that would disqualify using reported cases as the metric for comparison.

Alternatively stated - you haven't given any reason to believe that the reported cases aren't effectively a random sample of all actual cases, at least for the purpose of comparison to vaccination status.

[zzand]

Robert, that is indeed a good question on home tests. Where I am right now there are signs posted in almost every store that sells them that they are currently out of stock.

[Ben Zonia]

It looks like neither acquired immunity nor the vaccines are working well now, with the new variant. It is apparently different enough now that neither are working well.

Michigan native Katherine Timpf guest hosted the Greg Gutfeld show last night, and revealed that she has had COVID twice, once at the beginning of the year, before vaccines, and once last week, after being fully vaccinated.

Isolation is probably the safest bet. It would be more reasonable and effective to shut down for the next two weeks, wear effective masks, and only do necessary things outside the home.

Like AIDS, they should quickly move to Therapeutics, old and new. They have yet to develop a successful AIDS vaccine, but Therapeutics have been quite effective. Magic Johnson, anyone?

[Matt]

I think BMW's point is that natural immunity is far superior, because vaccines create leaky Indvidual's.

Go read his post here on Merek's disease.

Natural infection does not equate to natural immunity.