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Graph request for BMW

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Matt
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Graph request for BMW

Post by Matt » Wed Dec 22, 2021 6:04 pm

BMW, given our impassioned differences on covid vaccination, I wouldn't blame you if you told me to go Fuck myself, but I'm hoping you are willing and able to graph the following:

-Vaccination vs. infection rates by Michigan county
-Vaccination vs. infection rates by a large Michigan county (personal preference would be 1l Washtenaw, and 2) Saginaw)

The goal is to see what the data looks like more localized. As a bonus, it would be cool to see number of tests compared to the localities overall population.


What's more pathetic: harassing an old man who is paying to do a radio show or supporting a grifter like Trump?

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TC Talks
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Re: Graph request for BMW

Post by TC Talks » Wed Dec 22, 2021 6:47 pm

Why would he do that? It might disprove his entire ethos.


“The more you can increase fear of drugs, crime, welfare mothers, immigrants and aliens, the more you control all of the people.”
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Honeyman
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Re: Graph request for BMW

Post by Honeyman » Wed Dec 22, 2021 6:51 pm

TC Talks wrote:
Wed Dec 22, 2021 6:47 pm
Why would he do that? It might disprove his entire ethos.
Shouldn't you sign line read "accept" and not "except"?


The censorship king from out of state.

bmw
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Re: Graph request for BMW

Post by bmw » Wed Dec 22, 2021 7:14 pm

I'll graph it. It will take me some time to compile the data so I may not get it done tonight, but I'll put one together. The necessary data is all available at the New York Times.



bmw
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Re: Graph request for BMW

Post by bmw » Wed Dec 22, 2021 7:49 pm

Here ya go (and the 2 counties you requested are highlighted in green).

Image

There is a correlation county-by-county between vaccination rate and daily cases, though I would note that the high numbers in Gratiot county do skew the numbers a bit. Nevertheless, the lines of best fit range from 57 daily cases at a 39% vaccination rate to 48 daily cases at a 66% vaccination rate. This amounts to about a 15% reduction in cases for a vaccination rate that is 27 percentage points higher. Now of course the obvious caveat here is that there is a vast difference in population size for each county, so that 15% would only hold true if all counties were the same population. Number could be higher or lower when accounting for population size of each county, but a weighted graph would take a lot more time to make.



Matt
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Re: Graph request for BMW

Post by Matt » Thu Dec 23, 2021 5:51 am

Thanks for pulling this together quickly! I have a question about the data, specifically Leelanau County: it is listed as one of the highest in terms of percentage vaccinated in the state, yet the NYT has that in the middle of the pack.

Also, while county data is a little more localized, I would expect that you'd see a much greater variance at the city/township level within a county. For example, in the following counties I would expect the following:

Washtenaw - Ann Arbor would look much better than Manchester

Wayne - Livonia would look much better than Detroit or Taylor

Saginaw - Frankenmuth would look much better than Chesaning or Saginaw


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craig11152
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Re: Graph request for BMW

Post by craig11152 » Thu Dec 23, 2021 9:21 am

I think its clear the vaccine, in many cases, does not prevent contracting the virus.
The idea or hope that the 95% efficacy was about prevention has turned out to be less than many of us hoped.
But since the virus is evolving the efficacy goal post should be expected to move as well.
So at this stage, to my way of thinking, the relationship between vaccination status and case numbers is not nearly as important as the relationship between vaccination status and hospitalizations and deaths.


I no longer directly engage trolls

Matt
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Re: Graph request for BMW

Post by Matt » Thu Dec 23, 2021 9:39 am

craig11152 wrote:
Thu Dec 23, 2021 9:21 am
So at this stage, to my way of thinking, the relationship between vaccination status and case numbers is not nearly as important as the relationship between vaccination status and hospitalizations and deaths.
If only our leaders could level with us like this.


What's more pathetic: harassing an old man who is paying to do a radio show or supporting a grifter like Trump?

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Re: Graph request for BMW

Post by Deleted User 15716 » Thu Dec 23, 2021 9:51 am

Matt wrote:
Thu Dec 23, 2021 9:39 am
If only our leaders could level with us like this.
Do you think they know?
I'm not being snarly. We all expect our fearless leaders to know everything.
But is this truly uncharted territory for not only us, but them too?
Do their edicts lean more toward trying their best with what they can surmise, as opposed to sound decisions based upon concrete facts? I don't know the answer to that. What do you think?



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Re: Graph request for BMW

Post by Matt » Thu Dec 23, 2021 10:22 am

Joie Vivre wrote:
Thu Dec 23, 2021 9:51 am
Matt wrote:
Thu Dec 23, 2021 9:39 am
If only our leaders could level with us like this.
Do you think they know?
I'm not being snarly. We all expect our fearless leaders to know everything.
But is this truly uncharted territory for not only us, but them too?
Do their edicts lean more toward trying their best with what they can surmise, as opposed to sound decisions based upon concrete facts? I don't know the answer to that. What do you think?
Look at some of the actions of big state governors and former governors: Gretchen Whitmer, Gavin Newsome, Andrew Cuomo - actions speak louder than words.


What's more pathetic: harassing an old man who is paying to do a radio show or supporting a grifter like Trump?

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TC Talks
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Re: Graph request for BMW

Post by TC Talks » Thu Dec 23, 2021 7:52 pm

Image


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― Noam Chomsky

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MWmetalhead
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Re: Graph request for BMW

Post by MWmetalhead » Fri Dec 24, 2021 7:33 am

I agree 100% with craig11152's remarks. I also agree with Matt's remarks on another thread that COVID is and will be endemic.



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Re: Graph request for BMW

Post by bmw » Sat Dec 25, 2021 8:40 pm

Here's an interesting county-level stat:

Miami-Dade county in Florida has the 4th highest vaccination rate in the country at 92% of all residents age 12+ fully vaccinated. Only a county in Arizona, Maryland, and Montana are higher.

Miami-Dade county ALSO has the 1st HIGHEST per-capita daily case rate of any county in the entire country, currently at 276 cases per 100k residents.

I thought getting us up to that level of vaccination was going to stop the spread; not make it the fastest spreading area in the entire country.



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Re: Graph request for BMW

Post by Matt » Sun Dec 26, 2021 4:34 am

bmw wrote:
Sat Dec 25, 2021 8:40 pm
Here's an interesting county-level stat:

Miami-Dade county in Florida has the 4th highest vaccination rate in the country at 92% of all residents age 12+ fully vaccinated. Only a county in Arizona, Maryland, and Montana are higher.

Miami-Dade county ALSO has the 1st HIGHEST per-capita daily case rate of any county in the entire country, currently at 276 cases per 100k residents.

I thought getting us up to that level of vaccination was going to stop the spread; not make it the fastest spreading area in the entire country.
I'm glad you asked:
I live in Fort Lauderdale and will be in attendance at the Orange Bowl for the UGA/M CFB Semi-final in Miami on January 31st. I'm a retired Physician Assistant with 22y of practice experience in Emergency Medicine. I study and write extensively about COVID.

Right now, FL is experiencing large numbers of new COVID cases. The reporting of new case numbers without context can lead to the perception that something like the Bubonic Plague is afflicting South FL. I’d like to rationally allay that view and any accompanying fear with some facts.

There are several reasons for the increase in COVID cases: With the holidays upon us, more people, even those that are asymptomatic are getting tested and more COVID cases are being detected. The percent positivity rate in Miami-Dade Co. is 15% indicating that the SARS-CoV2 virus is widely circulating. While the Omicron variant is present in S. FL and rapidly trending to replace Delta, Delta remains predominant.

During the current period of rapidly increasing case numbers (nearly vertical slope of the curve) which began accelerating about 3w ago, deaths and hospitalizations have held steady at low rates. This has been the pattern of Omicron globally and anecdotally indicates Omicron does not induce more serious COVID symptoms than its predecessors. The data is catching up and is supportive of the anecdotal picture.

Break through infections (for those with 2 shots) are producing about 30% of the new cases in Miami Dade Co. As a general rule, this number should not be applied across populations. That’s because the public is not privy to the medical conditions or immune system status of those that have been reinfected after vaccination. What we do know generally is that people who are healthy and developed an appropriate innate and adaptive immune response following vaccination are going to be spared reinfection.

Those who have been boosted account for less than 3% of new cases. New cases are concentrated in age groups that mirror vaccination rates. For example, there were 154 new COVID admissions in Miami Dade Hospitals. 101 of those are unvaccinated, 13 have been boosted (caveats apply), and 53 have had two shots. 89 are in the age group of 50 – to 89+. The rest are evenly distributed in younger age groupings. The median age of new cases is 34 with the highest percentage in the 19-34 age range (47%). 90% of those are unvaccinated. In that age group 20% required medical management.

FL in general and Miami Dade Co. in particular, are focused on effectively managing those who develop serious illness and require medical interventions. Messaging from local government is about dealing with the current increase in serious illness for new COVID cases and treating them. Public health officials and Miami Dade government are not talking about shutting down or restricting personal mobility and social contacts. The word is encouragement. Not the kind of handwringing discouragement – a fear inducing narrative - that we are hearing so much of from elsewhere.

If you are under 50 and boosted, enjoy and use common sense by acting responsibly with regard to exposure risks. You know what those are. No need to repeat them. If you can find them, travel with self test kits. Other age groups and those with varying vaccination status need to assess their own exposure risks and act accordingly. Know that if you are vaccinated, healthy and under 50, if you do become infected with Omicron and develop COVID during your visit, symptoms will be mild and similar to the commonly induced cold symptoms of the standard Coronavirus family. Consider self testing and if positive for COVID, take appropriate actions to protect others around you from being infected by you.

Finally, if you are traveling to Miami to watch Michigan continue it’s march to the CFB NC, enjoy the game fearlessly.
https://mgoblog.com/diaries/covid-forid ... range-bowl


What's more pathetic: harassing an old man who is paying to do a radio show or supporting a grifter like Trump?

bmw
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Re: Graph request for BMW

Post by bmw » Sun Dec 26, 2021 9:29 am

Matt - while that was an interesting read, it doesn't really answer my specific question.

According to the data you posted, 30% of recent Covid infections are break-through infections within vaccinated people. That means 70% are in unvaccinated people. While it is unclear how many of those positive tests are in people under 12 (most of whom are not vaccinated), as I pointed out, 92% of the age-12+ population is vaccinated. Even if we go with the 80% number (the percent of the entire population in that county that is vaccinated, including young children), that means that allegedly 70% of all positive Covid tests are coming from 20% of the population, suggesting that the spread rate is 933% higher (9.3x) in unvaccinated people than in vaccinated. IF that were true, you'd expect to see EVEN HIGHER daily case rates in numerous other counties in the country that have lower vaccination rates (at least in population centers where early spread usually happens the fastest), but that's not what we're seeing. Again - nearly highest vaccination rate in the country; also absolute highest infection rate. Doesn't add up to me. And btw - that 9.3x number is nearly double the national average of 5x as reported by the NYT.

I'd also like to try to break down that hospitalization data (I had to calculate a few of these numbers myself based on the way the data was broken down, there was just enough data to fully break down age groups thanks to the median being included)

-154 new COVID admissions in Miami Dade Hospitals. Age breakdown:
-1 is in the age group 0-18
-31 are in age group 19-34
-33 are in age group 35-49
-89 are in the age group of 50+

-101 of those are unvaccinated

Ok, so considering that virtually all hospitalization admissions are in adults, I can go with the age 18+ vaccination rate in the county, which according to the NYT is at 94%. What you're asking me to believe is that 66% of the hospitalizations (101) are coming from the 6% of the population that is unvaccinated, while the other 34% are coming from the 94% of the population that is vaccinated. THAT RATIO WORKS OUT TO 30.4 TO 1. I'm supposed to believe that in Miami-Dade county that you're 30x more likely to end up hospitalized with Covid if you're unvaccinated? That number isn't even close to the nationally reported averages which are generally in the low teens depending on the source.

Bottom line is this - Miami Dade right now has numbers that make is a statistical outlier of epic proportions, and you're asking me to believe that the fact that this outlying data just happens to be occurring in the 4th-highest vaccinated county in the entire country is a mere coincidence. Moreover, the even bigger problem here is that given the super high vaccination rate, the raw size of the group of people that is unvaccinated is quite small - orders of magnitude smaller than in other counties with big cities across the country. The fact that Covid is supposedly raging at these levels within such a small group of people (when it is raging at much lower levels among larger groups of people) even further exaggerates the already-outlier status of the numbers.



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