No one really knows what today's results will look like

[Matt]

By nature, people tend to follow patterns. In no place is this more clear than in presidential elections, post-FDR. Truman (mostly) had two terms, and then Eisenhower had two terms. After Eisenhower, you had two terms for the Democrats. The trend of giving two terms per party has held true with two exceptions: Reagan and Clinton. What did those two men have in common? They connected with Americans and were gifted orators. I'd argue that Reagan was the truly disruptive of the pattern, because his election robbed the Democrats of the second term. Also, the Democrats should have taken over after his term, but they ran a truly terrible candidate.

Starting with the Clinton presidency, we've seen 3 consecutive two term presidencies, and each time the incumbent president has faced an "ok, Bob/John/Mitt, we'll let you run this time" candidate. Joe Biden is much more of a Dole/Kerry/Romney than a Reagan/Clinton. However, one cannot completely disregard the polling (though I think re-elections in recent history have more of a first election model turnout than a midterm turnout) and the general disdain many on the left have for Trump.

You can also not ignore the fact that there is a great enthusiasm among Trump supporters to get out and vote today (or anytime earlier). This thing would have likely been a strong Trump win without Covid. A lot of people have stated that Biden is a more a likable candidate than Hillary, and while this may be true, Hillary was the first woman at the top of a ticket. Don't underestimate the pull of that for some people that wanted to see a woman president four years ago. Also, there are many on the right that were squeamish about Trump's personality that are actually pleased with his record, even if we're not fans of his demeanor.

History is in the process of being made today - we'll have the oldest president ever elected, even if it is the same guy breaking his own record from 2016. Will we have history made in that an opposition political retread finally knocks off an incumbent? It all depends on turnout, and my gut tells me that the enthusiasm is there on both sides.

In closing, we are going to have a winner at some point, hopefully tonight. The winning side needs to be gracious in victory. While some may see this as a plea to not pile on in the event of a Biden win, I'm making a pledge here that if Trump wins, I will be relieved, and I will not rub his win in anyone's face. I would ask my fellow righties to take a similar pledge. At some point, we have to stop this team escalation bullshit...

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By nature, people tend to follow patterns. In no place is this more clear than in presidential elections, post-FDR. Truman (mostly) had two terms, and then Eisenhower had two terms. After Eisenhower, you had two terms for the Democrats. The trend of giving two terms per party has held true with two exceptions: Reagan and Clinton. What did those two men have in common? They connected with Americans and were gifted orators. I'd argue that Reagan was the truly disruptive of the pattern, because his election robbed the Democrats of the second term. Also, the Democrats should have taken over after his term, but they ran a truly terrible candidate.

Starting with the Clinton presidency, we've seen 3 consecutive two term presidencies, and each time the incumbent president has faced an "ok, Bob/John/Mitt, we'll let you run this time" candidate. Joe Biden is much more of a Dole/Kerry/Romney than a Reagan/Clinton. However, one cannot completely disregard the polling (though I think re-elections in recent history have more of a first election model turnout than a midterm turnout) and the general disdain many on the left have for Trump.

You can also not ignore the fact that there is a great enthusiasm among Trump supporters to get out and vote today (or anytime earlier). This thing would have likely been a strong Trump win without Covid. A lot of people have stated that Biden is a more a likable candidate than Hillary, and while this may be true, Hillary was the first woman at the top of a ticket. Don't underestimate the pull of that for some people that wanted to see a woman president four years ago. Also, there are many on the right that were squeamish about Trump's personality that are actually pleased with his record, even if we're not fans of his demeanor.

History is in the process of being made today - we'll have the oldest president ever elected, even if it is the same guy breaking his own record from 2016. Will we have history made in that an opposition political retread finally knocks off an incumbent? It all depends on turnout, and my gut tells me that the enthusiasm is there on both sides.

In closing, we are going to have a winner at some point, hopefully tonight. The winning side needs to be gracious in victory. While some may see this as a plea to not pile on in the event of a Biden win, I'm making a pledge here that if Trump wins, I will be relieved, and I will not rub his win in anyone's face. I would ask my fellow righties to take a similar pledge. At some point, we have to stop this team escalation bullshit...

You forgot Carter. I agree with the sentiments though.

[UP906]

Agreed.

[Matt]

Carter was Reagan. Republicans didn't go with a safe choice against him, if that makes sense?

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Carter was Reagan. Republicans didn't go with a safe choice against him, if that makes sense?

They did however go with a retread. I’m strictly thinking along the lines of your 2 terms per party thing.

[Matt]

Reagan was different in that he was an insurgent, not an establishment candidate. I think the equivalent this year would have been Bernie. Also, I understand that Reagan ran an optimistic "Morning in America" campaign. America was "the shining city on the hill". Dole/Kerry/Romney and now Biden are basically "the other guy sucks" candidate. Trump is a wild card because of his personality and demeanor. If he was less of a douchebag, we'd be looking at a 40-45 state win.

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Reagan was different in that he was an insurgent, not an establishment candidate. I think the equivalent this year would have been Bernie. Also, I understand that Reagan ran an optimistic "Morning in America" campaign. America was "the shining city on the hill". Dole/Kerry/Romney and now Biden are basically "the other guy sucks" candidate. Trump is a wild card because of his personality and demeanor. If he was less of a douchebag, we'd be looking at a 40-45 state win.

There’s simply no way with as polarized as the country is that a normal Republican would be winning 40-45 states right now. Maybe 28-30 but that’s probably it. Normal President or not a majority of the country simply doesn’t agree with the Republican part anymore. Part of it is the rapid demographic changes the country has undergone. Those changes have always been baring down on the Republican party and they are stubborn as a mule and won’t adapt. It’s literally destroying the party. So even if they had nominated Mr. Rogers for president it probably wouldn’t have mattered, it may have been a close win but not a chance it would be a blowout.

I will say that Biden’s speeches have a theme of restoring the soul of the nation which isn’t exactly “the other guy sucks”... and I would disagree with the idea that he’s another Bob Dole or John McCain. Mitt Romney and John Kerry were not some sort of “we know we won’t win and so it’s your turn” candidates.

[Matt]

By nature, people tend to follow patterns. In no place is this more clear than in presidential elections, post-FDR. Truman (mostly) had two terms, and then Eisenhower had two terms. After Eisenhower, you had two terms for the Democrats. The trend of giving two terms per party has held true with two exceptions: Reagan and Clinton. What did those two men have in common? They connected with Americans and were gifted orators. I'd argue that Reagan was the truly disruptive of the pattern, because his election robbed the Democrats of the second term. Also, the Democrats should have taken over after his term, but they ran a truly terrible candidate.

Starting with the Clinton presidency, we've seen 3 consecutive two term presidencies, and each time the incumbent president has faced an "ok, Bob/John/Mitt, we'll let you run this time" candidate. Joe Biden is much more of a Dole/Kerry/Romney than a Reagan/Clinton. However, one cannot completely disregard the polling (though I think re-elections in recent history have more of a first election model turnout than a midterm turnout) and the general disdain many on the left have for Trump.

You can also not ignore the fact that there is a great enthusiasm among Trump supporters to get out and vote today (or anytime earlier). This thing would have likely been a strong Trump win without Covid. A lot of people have stated that Biden is a more a likable candidate than Hillary, and while this may be true, Hillary was the first woman at the top of a ticket. Don't underestimate the pull of that for some people that wanted to see a woman president four years ago. Also, there are many on the right that were squeamish about Trump's personality that are actually pleased with his record, even if we're not fans of his demeanor.

History is in the process of being made today - we'll have the oldest president ever elected, even if it is the same guy breaking his own record from 2016. Will we have history made in that an opposition political retread finally knocks off an incumbent? It all depends on turnout, and my gut tells me that the enthusiasm is there on both sides.

In closing, we are going to have a winner at some point, hopefully tonight. The winning side needs to be gracious in victory. While some may see this as a plea to not pile on in the event of a Biden win, I'm making a pledge here that if Trump wins, I will be relieved, and I will not rub his win in anyone's face. I would ask my fellow righties to take a similar pledge. At some point, we have to stop this team escalation bullshit...

Pretty much spot on. I'm not particularly happy with the Biden win personally, but the country will survive.