Random political predictions for 2020

[bmw]

Normally I would be ready to make some predictions for November in a Presidential election year, but this has been such a screwed up year that I really don't have many gut feelings on what is going to happen. About the only prediction I'm ready to make right now is that Trump's polling numbers, both in job approval and in head-to-head with Biden are at or near their bottom and will improve in the coming months. How much they will improve is the key.

As to the Coronavirus specifically - we're already on the road to herd immunity and there's no stopping that. I think 10-15% of the US population has already had it and because any future economic shutdowns will be much more limited in scope, compounded by the fact that most people have already become complacent and moved on with their lives - I predict that by the fall, I think upwards of 1/2 of the US population will have had the virus, and thus hopefully be immune. At that point, the spread should slow significantly. I think we reach or nearly reach herd immunity before a vaccine hits the market. And how that plays out politically is anybody's guess.

[Deleted User 15342]

In reference to your last sentence. Do you think if and when a vaccine hits the market that will it be mandatory that everyone must receive it?

[bmw]

I don't think it will be mandatory, with the exception possibly being for young children in order to go to a public school. Also possibly certain industries might require it for their workers such as healthcare....but as far as a broad-brush government mandate, I highly doubt it.

[Rate This]

Normally I would be ready to make some predictions for November in a Presidential election year, but this has been such a screwed up year that I really don't have many gut feelings on what is going to happen. About the only prediction I'm ready to make right now is that Trump's polling numbers, both in job approval and in head-to-head with Biden are at or near their bottom and will improve in the coming months. How much they will improve is the key.

As to the Coronavirus specifically - we're already on the road to herd immunity and there's no stopping that. I think 10-15% of the US population has already had it and because any future economic shutdowns will be much more limited in scope, compounded by the fact that most people have already become complacent and moved on with their lives - I predict that by the fall, I think upwards of 1/2 of the US population will have had the virus, and thus hopefully be immune. At that point, the spread should slow significantly. I think we reach or nearly reach herd immunity before a vaccine hits the market. And how that plays out politically is anybody's guess.

They seem to be getting appreciably worse at every additional bizarre Trump moment. You’re hedging your bets now?

[bmw]

I'm not hedging my bets....I've said in here for quite some time now that I'm not nearly as confident about Turmp's chances in 2020 as I was in 2016 - I don't think I've ever given him better than 55-45 odds. Today I would say it is a literal coin flip, undoubtedly being Biden's to lose at this precise point in time.

[audiophile]

Trump signs are everywhere again.

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Trump signs are everywhere again.

In rural areas sure... but that’s not where the people are...

[audiophile]

I'll put a Pence 2020 sign in your yard.

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I'll put a Pence 2020 sign in your yard.

I was gonna make a display with Trump pence and Biden whoever he picks signs in my yard and put a large ? Between them with a sign that simply said VOTE in large letters.

[audiophile]

Cool idea.

[Deleted User 12047]

I think you are missing the elephant in the room.

Trump trashes the post office.
Trump trashes vote by mail,
Trump encourages challenges the loosening of absentee voter requirements.
Trump trashes the "far left liberals" trying to take over the country with their "totaltatarianism" and mob rule.
Trump loses the popular vote - claims fraud.
Trump challenges the results of the Electoral College - claiming fraud.
The vote goes to the House and...

A few things to note - it's the NEW House (elected in 2020) not the current House.
Are their votes challenged?
It's one vote per state, not one vote per representative, and today it's 27 - 23 Republican in states.

2020's mess of a year is bound to continue thru the election.

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I think you are missing the elephant in the room.

Trump trashes the post office.
Trump trashes vote by mail,
Trump encourages challenges the loosening of absentee voter requirements.
Trump trashes the "far left liberals" trying to take over the country with their "totaltatarianism" and mob rule.
Trump loses the popular vote - claims fraud.
Trump challenges the results of the Electoral College - claiming fraud.
The vote goes to the House and...

A few things to note - it's the NEW House (elected in 2020) not the current House.
Are their votes challenged?
It's one vote per state, not one vote per representative, and today it's 27 - 23 Republican in states.

2020's mess of a year is bound to continue thru the election.

To go to the house a 269-269 tie is required. Absent that and with various officials (many of them Democrats not willing to play along with funny business) in charge of certifying the results sent to Congress it’s unlikely there will be much chicanery like you describe.

Trump can protest until they drag him out of the White House kicking and screaming at Noon on January 20th if he wants but it won’t do much good.

[TC Talks]

Expect Trump to sue 10+ states to drag out the mail in results. He's going to make this a shitshow like his does everything else.

If he continues to campaign with his overtly White Supremacist rhetoric, I can see some Republicans just not voting at all.

[bmw]

Expect Trump to sue 10+ states to drag out the mail in results. He's going to make this a shitshow like his does everything else.

If he continues to campaign with his overtly White Supremacist rhetoric, I can see some Republicans just not voting at all.

Just like how Screen Glare is incapable of responding to any topic without mentioning either NPD or Russia, you seem utterly incapable of responding to anything without mentioning race. Why is that?

[TC Talks]

Because he's a fucking racist. Even his campaign slogan is a nod to White Supremacist groups.

If he attacked the disabled, I would have responded to that. Sorry you're not capable of understanding bias, but a majority of the United States does. Why are you so ignorant about an issue that has long been a liability to our country?

The harder he pushes this issue the lower his support will become.