Bernie could be 46!

[Deleted User 12047]

Watching the debate last night, and reading about how turnout will determine the election, most of us should get comfortable with President Sanders and a continued Republican Senate. With the support of millions of young Americans disillusioned by the "American Ideal" after a lifetime of wars and a dramatic recession that cut directly into their current and future earning potential, Sanders will bring out young voters in droves. It will also bring out older voters who are afraid based on how Donald Trump will characterize Sanders' ideas and plans.

And make no mistake - the scenario where Sanders wins the popular vote but loses in the Electoral College will not be taken lightly by his voters and supporters. They already feel the game is rigged against them. That scenario has the potential of causing much more disruption and "revolution" than Sanders' presidency.

Discuss...

[Deleted User 15265]

Radio Sucks, I agree with what you're saying and as much as I hate to see Bernie win thats all the Democrats have to stop Trump, the USA could become the USSA The United Socialist States of America.

[Deleted User 12047]

Radio Sucks, I agree with what you're saying and as much as I hate to see Bernie win thats all the Democrats have to stop Trump, the USA could become the USSA The United Socialist States of America.

Won't happen due to the 54 or so old white men (and a few women) who will be sitting in the Senate after Bernie's inauguration.

[Deleted User 15265]

I guess the big question is who will be Bernie's running mate because if he wins against Trump and is inaugurated Bernie could have a heart attack and we would be stuck with his vice presidential pick.

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I guess the big question is who will be Bernie's running mate because if he wins against Trump and is inaugurated Bernie could have a heart attack and we would be stuck with his vice presidential pick.

For that matter Trump isn’t exactly the picture of health and we could easily be stuck with Pence...

[bmw]

Bernie's base is smaller than Trump's base. Trump has a solid base of 35% of the entire American population. Bernie has a solid base of 25-30% of Democrat voters - or about 15% of the entire American population. Trump has 90% of his party behind him. There's no evidence, at least not yet, that Bernie can pull off anywhere near that number of his party (which, Buttigieg is correct when he says that Bernie isn't really a Democrat).

I firmly believe that as long as the economy remains at least relatively strong leading up to November, Trump would EASILY beat Bernie in the general election. The core of Bernie's economic platform is one of radical change and restructuring of our economy - that is not a platform that appeals to a majority of people unless things are going really bad, which they aren't.

[km1125]

Bernie's base is smaller than Trump's base. Trump has a solid base of 35% of the entire American population. Bernie has a solid base of 25-30% of Democrat voters - or about 15% of the entire American population. Trump has 90% of his party behind him. There's no evidence, at least not yet, that Bernie can pull off anywhere near that number of his party (which, Buttigieg is correct when he says that Bernie isn't really a Democrat).

I firmly believe that as long as the economy remains at least relatively strong leading up to November, Trump would EASILY beat Bernie in the general election. The core of Bernie's economic platform is one of radical change and restructuring of our economy - that is not a platform that appeals to a majority of people unless things are going really bad, which they aren't.

^^^^THIS.

Right now, 75% of the DEMOCRATS aren't even voting for Bernie. They may never vote for Trump, but most of them won't be inspired to get to the polls to rally behind someone only because the "party" said so. Some will, but not enough to make a difference.

[Deleted User 12047]

In February 2016, Donald Trump was polling right about where Bernie Sanders is polling today, about 32% of primary voters. So at the same point in the process, about 70% of Republican voters were not going to vote for Trump. It's way to early to make these sort of predictions.

Also, for those of you who live in the Fox News Media Biodome, don't discount the ABT vote and the impact of Bloomberg's billions to motivate it.

[audiophile]

Doubt BWM at your own peril...

I learned my lesson.

[Deleted User 14896]

Myself, I just don't see Sanders getting elected because of how much he wants to get in everyone's wallet. Not just the millionaires and billionaires. You heard Buttigieg. What was it, anyone over $26,000 is going to see a tax hike under Sanders. That may not be the right figure. But who in this country don't make at least $30,000 a year.

Once Donald starts throwing out how much Sander's plans are going to cost, I think America will drop Bernie like Third Period French. I'm not saying he don't have good ideas. Me myself I would pay more for every kid in America to have free health care. But way too many people have a "Don't touch my wallet" attitude.

[Deleted User 12047]

Doubt BWM at your own peril...

I learned my lesson.

I assume you mean poster bmw, who's analysis is very well thought out. My bringing up an alternate theory of the current situation may be me casting doubt, but I certainly respect this poster's position and thoughts.

However, I also feel that many people are falling into the "predict the future from the past" trap. Was 2016 a deep structural change in American politics, or a "one-off" and now things get back to "normal"? Would be interested to hear the poster's opinions on that. And clearly, voter turn out will be the determining factor in this election.

[bmw]

I don't think people are giving enough attention to the fracture developing in the Democrat party this year. Even a lot of left-leaning folks in the media seem uncomfortable with Bernie as President. I think the party is ALREADY in a no-win situation. If Bernie wins the nomination, the Independents and moderate Democrats will break enough for Trump. If anybody else wins the nomination - especially as a result of a brokered convention - Bernie's supporters will stay home.

RS - you ask about 2016 - it was indeed a structural change in American politics. Trump blew up the system, and there's no going back. He has re-shaped the Republican party for at least the next decade.

There are 2 key differences between 2016 and 2020. The first is that Trump has a record to run on. The second is that the Republican party is much more unified behind him than they were 4 years ago. Bernie's following, who would undoubtedly turn out to the polls in very high turnout numbers if Bernie got the nomination, simply isn't as big in size as Trump's, and it never will be. Capitalism is still king, and we're nowhere near a majority supporting Bernie's kind of socialism. I know Bernie polls well against Trump in a head-to-head, but you can mark my words - that will change if and when he gets the nomination (which I still don't think he will but it is certainly possible).

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I don't think people are giving enough attention to the fracture developing in the Democrat party this year. Even a lot of left-leaning folks in the media seem uncomfortable with Bernie as President. I think the party is ALREADY in a no-win situation. If Bernie wins the nomination, the Independents and moderate Democrats will break enough for Trump. If anybody else wins the nomination - especially as a result of a brokered convention - Bernie's supporters will stay home.

RS - you ask about 2016 - it was indeed a structural change in American politics. Trump blew up the system, and there's no going back. He has re-shaped the Republican party for at least the next decade.

There are 2 key differences between 2016 and 2020. The first is that Trump has a record to run on. The second is that the Republican party is much more unified behind him than they were 4 years ago. Bernie's following, who would undoubtedly turn out to the polls in very high turnout numbers if Bernie got the nomination, simply isn't as big in size as Trump's, and it never will be. Capitalism is still king, and we're nowhere near a majority supporting Bernie's kind of socialism. I know Bernie polls well against Trump in a head-to-head, but you can mark my words - that will change if and when he gets the nomination (which I still don't think he will but it is certainly possible).

On the note of fractured parties.. Obama is specifically staying out of the contest until the convention and after because he is the most popular Democrat in the land, foresees a fractured party and is probably the best hope to unite it. Taking sides now would compromise any ability he does have. But I think he might be able to pull it off.

[Deleted User 12047]

Again, a well thought out analysis, and many points I agree with, except one:

If Bernie wins the nomination, the Independents and moderate Democrats will break enough for Trump. If anybody else wins the nomination - especially as a result of a brokered convention - Bernie's supporters will stay home.

You can't discount the "Anybody But Trump" vote. I don't think a truly moderate Democrat - let's use me as an example - would be able to hold their nose and vote to re-elect. This may not be an intellectual decision but an emotional one. African-Americans, especially women, are poised to back even Bloomberg if he gets the nomination, as they will be a large "ABT" vote block. No ABT voter is worried about socialism. Bernie on the ballot will almost guarantee that the Senate will remain McConnell's playground so nothing will get passed.

And let me go WAY out on a limb: No matter who the Democratic nominee is, if Stacey Abrams is the VP candidate, Melania and Barron will be moving back to NYC.

[bmw]

And that's a fair point. All I would counter with is that the anybody-but-Trump crowd, at least based on recent polling and disapproval numbers, is modestly shrinking. However, if enough people make an emotional as opposed to a rational decision and somebody like Bernie Sanders becomes President, then we as a nation are in big trouble - not just because we'd have a quasi-socialist in the White House, but because freedom and liberty can't survive in an environment where people vote with their emotions rather than their common sense.

People can say whatever they want about Trump; one thing they can't say is that he hasn't acted as an effective firewall against a hard turn towards socialism. Just 20 years ago, a candidate with Bernie's beliefs would have been clobbered by any Republican, including Trump, in at least 40 states.