Biden and Warren have really fallen off fast! Going into Iowa, Biden was seen as a frontrunner. After finishing 4th in Iowa and 5th in New Hampshire, he is nearly toast. Warren was also seen as a top three candidate. She did place third in Iowa, but finished 4th in New Hampshire (behind Amy Klobuchar!)
Bloomberg is spending a lot of money on ads. WTCM just aired a Bloomberg ad and it seems like almost every other YouTube ad is a Bloomberg ad
Acceptable registrations in the queue through March 30 at 9:00a ET have now been activated. Enjoy! -M.W.
Terms of Use have been amended effective October 6, 2019. Make sure you are aware of the new rules! Please visit this thread for details: https://www.mibuzzboard.com/phpBB3/view ... 16&t=48619
Terms of Use have been amended effective October 6, 2019. Make sure you are aware of the new rules! Please visit this thread for details: https://www.mibuzzboard.com/phpBB3/view ... 16&t=48619
Democrat Primary predictions
Re: Democrat Primary predictions
Have money will travel up in the polls...ftballfan wrote: ↑Wed Feb 19, 2020 9:40 amBiden and Warren have really fallen off fast! Going into Iowa, Biden was seen as a frontrunner. After finishing 4th in Iowa and 5th in New Hampshire, he is nearly toast. Warren was also seen as a top three candidate. She did place third in Iowa, but finished 4th in New Hampshire (behind Amy Klobuchar!)
Bloomberg is spending a lot of money on ads. WTCM just aired a Bloomberg ad and it seems like almost every other YouTube ad is a Bloomberg ad
Re: Democrat Primary predictions
For the first time I took some time to read the Democrat delegate allocation rules. It sounds complicated, but is actually quite simple when you boil it down to:
-roughly 1/3 of a state's delegates are proportionally allocated to every candidate who receives at least 15% of the vote state-wide;
-the other 2/3 are proportionally allocated based on the same 15% rule, but in each congressional district.
As such, you might crack 15% in a few district but not 15% state-wide, so you would get those delegates from the district allocation but zero for the state. And you might get 15% state-wide but miss the cut in several districts, thus missing out on delegates from those particular districts.
That makes it extremely difficult to predict whether Bernie can get a majority or not as there are candidates polling right around that 15% mark in a lot of states.
-roughly 1/3 of a state's delegates are proportionally allocated to every candidate who receives at least 15% of the vote state-wide;
-the other 2/3 are proportionally allocated based on the same 15% rule, but in each congressional district.
As such, you might crack 15% in a few district but not 15% state-wide, so you would get those delegates from the district allocation but zero for the state. And you might get 15% state-wide but miss the cut in several districts, thus missing out on delegates from those particular districts.
That makes it extremely difficult to predict whether Bernie can get a majority or not as there are candidates polling right around that 15% mark in a lot of states.
Re: Democrat Primary predictions
Are the delegates free agents once someone drops out? Biden, Klobuchar, Buttigieg, and Chief Warren are almost out of money. I could see Chief Warren's delegates going to Bernie, but the others would probably support Bloomberg.bmw wrote: ↑Sun Feb 23, 2020 3:30 pmFor the first time I took some time to read the Democrat delegate allocation rules. It sounds complicated, but is actually quite simple when you boil it down to:
-roughly 1/3 of a state's delegates are proportionally allocated to every candidate who receives at least 15% of the vote state-wide;
-the other 2/3 are proportionally allocated based on the same 15% rule, but in each congressional district.
As such, you might crack 15% in a few district but not 15% state-wide, so you would get those delegates from the district allocation but zero for the state. And you might get 15% state-wide but miss the cut in several districts, thus missing out on delegates from those particular districts.
That makes it extremely difficult to predict whether Bernie can get a majority or not as there are candidates polling right around that 15% mark in a lot of states.
Voting for Trump is dumber than playing Russian Roulette with fully loaded chambers.
Re: Democrat Primary predictions
Am I the only one getting a sense of irony from these rules being developed in response to complaints from the Bernie crowd and now it might not get him where he otherwise would be under the old system?bmw wrote: ↑Sun Feb 23, 2020 3:30 pmFor the first time I took some time to read the Democrat delegate allocation rules. It sounds complicated, but is actually quite simple when you boil it down to:
-roughly 1/3 of a state's delegates are proportionally allocated to every candidate who receives at least 15% of the vote state-wide;
-the other 2/3 are proportionally allocated based on the same 15% rule, but in each congressional district.
As such, you might crack 15% in a few district but not 15% state-wide, so you would get those delegates from the district allocation but zero for the state. And you might get 15% state-wide but miss the cut in several districts, thus missing out on delegates from those particular districts.
That makes it extremely difficult to predict whether Bernie can get a majority or not as there are candidates polling right around that 15% mark in a lot of states.
Re: Democrat Primary predictions
That....is complicated. Once a candidate withdraws, he/she can choose to release his/her already accumulated delegates from their pledge. In 37 states, those delegates are bound to nothing more than the following DNC rules:
No delegate at any level of the delegate selection process shall be mandated by law or Party rule to vote contrary to that person’s presidential choice as expressed at the time the delegate is elected.
Delegates elected to the national convention pledged to a presidential candidate shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them.
Basically what that means is that these particular delegates can vote for whoever they want to vote for. They're technically supposed to exercise "good conscience" in reflecting the will of the people of their state, but there's really no "teeth" to enforce such a vague provision.
The other 13 states have specific statutes dealing with this. Of those states, some basically have rules that simply formally release a delegate from any obligation if a candidate withdraws, regardless of whether or not said candidate formally releases his/her delegates. There are a few notable exceptions, however:
-Georgia - these delegates are converted to super delegates and thus can only vote on 2nd and subsequent ballots
-Minnesota - "The results of the presidential nomination primary must bind the election of delegates in each party."
Minnesota is an interesting case because Amy Klobuchar is leading there and will almost certainly withdraw before the convention. And their state law seems to suggest that delegates cannot be released, even by withdraw, because they "must" be bound by the results of the primary.
I could see the DNC really screwing this up and having it all come down to Minnesota's vague statute. Now THAT would be entertaining to watch.
Re: Democrat Primary predictions
I've thought of that. What I don't get is why they created such a convoluted system. I get the concept of proportional allocation, but why not just make it something like the top 3 vote-getters in each state split up the delegates proportionally, perhaps with some bonus delegates for winning the state? That would have been so much easier for everybody to understand that this system of 1/3 state + 2/3 CD allocation among candidates who crack the 15% threshold.
Re: Democrat Primary predictions
This from the people that want to do away with the Electoral College....
New York and Chicago were all in with respect to their sanctuary status — until they were hit with the challenge of actually providing sanctuary. In other words, typical liberal hypocrisy.
Re: Democrat Primary predictions
Evidently except in a Democrat primary.
New York and Chicago were all in with respect to their sanctuary status — until they were hit with the challenge of actually providing sanctuary. In other words, typical liberal hypocrisy.
Re: Democrat Primary predictions
Except it was a caucus using flawed technonlogy... Caucuses work quite differently than primaries and you don't count votes per se...
Re: Democrat Primary predictions
How's that prediction working out for you SG? Wrong about Hillary in 2016. Wrong about Biden in 2020.
Hope you're not betting any money on your predictions
Re: Democrat Primary predictions
I would like to point out to my leftist friends, that are fond of saying that the Republican Party is the party of old white men, that the oldest white man to ever be elected President of the United States is now the YOUNGEST white male still in the race.
Sure looks to me that "The Party Of Old White Men" mantle now belong to the Democrats. Not to mention the "Rich White Guy's" mantle.
BTW...
Damn good call on the race to date BMW. You are certainly the "Official Political Analyst" of the Buzzboard in my book. Fox News should book you to be on one of their panels.
Sure looks to me that "The Party Of Old White Men" mantle now belong to the Democrats. Not to mention the "Rich White Guy's" mantle.
BTW...
Damn good call on the race to date BMW. You are certainly the "Official Political Analyst" of the Buzzboard in my book. Fox News should book you to be on one of their panels.
New York and Chicago were all in with respect to their sanctuary status — until they were hit with the challenge of actually providing sanctuary. In other words, typical liberal hypocrisy.
Re: Democrat Primary predictions
78, 77 and 73 sounds like a rounding error in a data set to me... does anybody not born in the 1940’s other than Barack Obama have the ability to get enough attention to get a nomination? Or are we going to have to keep these guys on life support forever?Bryce wrote: ↑Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:03 amI would like to point out to my leftist friends, that are fond of saying that the Republican Party is the party of old white men, that the oldest white man to ever be elected President of the United States is now the YOUNGEST white male still in the race.
Sure looks to me that "The Party Of Old White Men" mantle now belong to the Democrats. Not to mention the "Rich White Guy's" mantle.
BTW...
Damn good call on the race to date BMW. You are certainly the "Official Political Analyst" of the Buzzboard in my book. Fox News should book you to be on one of their panels.
Re: Democrat Primary predictions
Bloomberg has dropped out and endorsed Biden. Biden will almost certainly be the nominee now...