Economic Data Thread

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Since all our resident Trump fans like to crow about the economic successes of the administration let’s see how he’s doing starting from January 1. We already know the overall economy is doing quite well and has been growing since 2009. But this being a presidential election year the economy could be make or break for Trump.

January 2
U.S. jobless claims dip to 222,000 to end 2019 back near a half century low:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-jo ... mic-report

January 3
U.S Manufacturing slump worsens in December as Institute for Supply Management index falls to 10-year low:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-ma ... mic-report

January 7
The H*** service side of the economy sped up at the end of 2019, Institute for supply management finds:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-h ... mic-report

January 8
U.S adds most private sector jobs in 8 months (202,000):
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/priva ... mic-report

January 9
U.S. Jobless claims fall for 4th week In a row to 214,000, back near post-recession lows:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-jo ... mic-report

January 10
Wage growth called ‘incredibly disappointing’ in jobs report:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/yikes ... mic-report

U.S. creates 145,000 jobs in December as hiring slows and wage growth softens:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-cr ... mic-report

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U.S. Budget deficit narrows slightly in December:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-bu ... mic-report

Small business sentiment dips in December:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/small ... mic-report

The Consumer Price Index rises in 2019 at the fastest pace in 8 years, data show, but inflation is still low:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/consu ... mic-report

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Producer Price Index (PPI) shows tepid increase in U.S. wholesale inflation at end of 2019:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ppi-s ... mic-report

Empire State index shows factory activity treading water:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/empir ... mic-report

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Philadelphia Fed manufacturing gauge jumps to highest level in 8 months:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/phila ... mic-report

New jobless claims fall 5th straight week to 204,000 in sign of strong U.S. labor market:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-j ... mic-report

U.S. Retailers cap off strong 2019 with solid increase in December holiday sales: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-re ... mic-report

Home builder confidence slips slightly in January, but USMCA trade deal should be a boon to the industry:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/home- ... mic-report

U.S. industrial output falls 0.3% in December, third drop in past 4 months:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-in ... mic-report

Consumer sentiment index slips to 99.1 in January:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/consu ... mic-report

Job openings drop sharply in November:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/job-o ... mic-report

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Share of union workers in the U.S. falls to a record low in 2019:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/share ... mic-report

Existing home sales rebounded in December even as inventory hit a 20-year low:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/exist ... mic-report

[km1125]

....
Home builder confidence slips slightly in January, but USMCA trade deal should be a boon to the industry:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/home- ... mic-report
...

I know it's anecdotal, but in the ~20 years since I've lived in this area and ~25 years since I've been familiar with it, I have NEVER seen the amount of home building activity taking place just the last couple years. I thought we were all "built out" and there'd only be little pockets of homes going up, but these guys are finding all kinds of plots of land and putting up whole developments and shoe-horning in handfuls of houses where there used to be only one.

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....
Home builder confidence slips slightly in January, but USMCA trade deal should be a boon to the industry:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/home- ... mic-report
...

I know it's anecdotal, but in the ~20 years since I've lived in this area and ~25 years since I've been familiar with it, I have NEVER seen the amount of home building activity taking place just the last couple years. I thought we were all "built out" and there'd only be little pockets of homes going up, but these guys are finding all kinds of plots of land and putting up whole developments and shoe-horning in handfuls of houses where there used to be only one.

My question would be which part of the area are you most in tune with and have the most consistent experience with?

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New jobless claims rise slightly to 211,000 in mid-January, but still show very few layoffs:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-j ... mic-report

U.S. Manufacturing PMI at 3-month low in January:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-ma ... mic-report

Home price growth gained speed in November as buyers found few homes to buy:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/home- ... mic-report

Consumer confidence running high at the start of 2020, hits biggest peak in 5 months:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/consu ... mic-report

Take away the military and durable goods orders sink 2.5% at the end of 2019:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/durab ... mic-report

The number of buyers who signed contracts on homes plummeted in December despite high demand:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-n ... mic-report

U.S. Trade deficit in goods jumps 8.5%, points to softer 4th quarter GDP:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-tr ... mic-report

New Jobless claims fall slightly to 216,000:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-u ... mic-report

Economy grows 2.1% in 4th quarter as GDP gets boost from sinking trade deficit:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/econo ... mic-report

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U.S. Trade deficit falls for first time in 6 years as China tariffs reduce imports:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-tr ... mic-report

The H*** services side of the U.S. economy grew in January at fastest pace in 6 months:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-h ... mic-report

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U.S. Productivity increases in 2019 at fastest pace in 9 years — but gains might not last:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-pr ... mic-report

New U.S. jobless claims fall 15,000 to 202,000 and return close to 50-year low:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-u ... mic-report

U.S. Adds 225,000 jobs in January as hiring speeds up again — labor market ‘astounding’:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-ad ... mic-report

Consumer credit jumps in December:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/consu ... mic-report

[Bryce]

U.S. Productivity increases in 2019 at fastest pace in 9 years — but gains might not last:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-pr ... mic-report

New U.S. jobless claims fall 15,000 to 202,000 and return close to 50-year low:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-u ... mic-report

U.S. Adds 225,000 jobs in January as hiring speeds up again — labor market ‘astounding’:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-ad ... mic-report

Consumer credit jumps in December:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/consu ... mic-report

And according to Pelosi, it's all because of Obama....

“President Trump did not inherit a mess. He inherited a momentum of job creation,”

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U.S. Productivity increases in 2019 at fastest pace in 9 years — but gains might not last:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-pr ... mic-report

New U.S. jobless claims fall 15,000 to 202,000 and return close to 50-year low:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-u ... mic-report

U.S. Adds 225,000 jobs in January as hiring speeds up again — labor market ‘astounding’:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-ad ... mic-report

Consumer credit jumps in December:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/consu ... mic-report

And according to Pelosi, it's all because of Obama....

“President Trump did not inherit a mess. He inherited a momentum of job creation,”

Well he inherited 7 years 10 months of job creation and economic growth if you want to get technical. Started in March 2009 under Obama and rolled right up to Trump, tax cut gave us a sugar high and now we are back to about where we were, especially in GDP... your dreaded near normal you love to hate on is exactly where we are now... in the meantime the deficit has exploded because tax cuts do not lead to increased revenues. There is no magic fairy dust that causes an inverted result. It works exactly the way logic says it should. Cut taxes and you have less revenue. Increase taxes and you get more revenue.

[Bryce]

in the meantime the deficit has exploded because tax cuts do not lead to increased revenues.

Bullshit.

The U.S. treasury collected the largest amount of revenue ever last year.

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in the meantime the deficit has exploded because tax cuts do not lead to increased revenues.

Bullshit.

The U.S. treasury collected the largest amount of revenue ever last year.

This is from late 2018 but I doubt the story is much different... you have to look at percentage gains and not dollar amounts... treasury actually had 3 years with more revenue gains — double digits no less— under Obama than the small gains under Trump... so you’re not really all that on target if you care to read...

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2 ... ax-cuts-s/

[Bryce]

in the meantime the deficit has exploded because tax cuts do not lead to increased revenues.

Bullshit.

The U.S. treasury collected the largest amount of revenue ever last year.

This is from late 2018 but I doubt the story is much different... you have to look at percentage gains and not dollar amounts... treasury actually had 3 years with more revenue gains — double digits no less— under Obama than the small gains under Trump... so you’re not really all that on target if you care to read...

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2 ... ax-cuts-s/

You said "increased revenues" not percentage. We had tax cuts. Revenues did go up. Your statement was wrong. There were increased revenues.

Cuts are what are needed. The new Trump budget addresses those.

Federal tax revenues rose during the 2019 fiscal year as the economy grew, but spending increased by over $200 billion more, which is why the country ended up running a deficit approaching $1 trillion, according to Congressional Budget Office data released Thursday.