2020 Presidential Polls

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For what it is worth, PredictIt has Kelly favored over McSally by nearly a 2:1 margin, but Trump is favored in the general election by nearly the same margin.

Arizona will NOT turn blue in the Presidential election this year. You can take that one to the bank.

I'm admittedly less confident in the Senate race.

The margin there was 3.55% last time around. I'm betting its at least less than that in 2020.

[Bryce]

I saw a Zagby poll showing a Trump approval rating of 24 percent among black voters.

If Trump even gets 20 percent of the black vote, there is little chance a Democrat can win.

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I saw a Zagby poll showing a Trump approval rating of 24 percent among black voters.

If Trump even gets 20 percent of the black vote, there is little chance a Democrat can win.

Zogby is another pollster like Rasmussen... maybe worse... I'd get a dump truck of salt if I were you... but in theory yes but if that happened he'd probably be getting 60% nationally... not too likely.

[Bryce]

you seem to like to bad-mouth the Rasmussen poll a lot. But if you look at the 2016 presidential election they called it closer than any other polling service out there.

[bmw]

I haven't heard him bad-mouth any of the far-left leaning polls, such as Politico or Reuters which consistently put Trump's disapproval margin between 11 and 15 points.

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I haven't heard him bad-mouth any of the far-left leaning polls, such as Politico or Reuters which consistently put Trump's disapproval margin between 11 and 15 points.

I wouldn’t call either of those “far left”... center left if you really want to but they are essentially center more than anything. Politico isn’t exactly Vox or Huffington Post... those ARE far left. Reuter’s is just a news service like the AP... Rasmussen and Zogby are into advocacy and their samples over sample Republicans on a consistent basis. There are some Democratic polls that also don’t pass muster. That said I WILL post any polls that come up on the RCP list regardless of my opinion of them. Someone dishonest wouldn’t bend over backwards to report the numbers honestly. They would just exclude them.

[Bryce]

I haven't heard him bad-mouth any of the far-left leaning polls, such as Politico or Reuters which consistently put Trump's disapproval margin between 11 and 15 points.

I wouldn’t call either of those “far left”... center left if you really want to but they are essentially center more than anything. Politico isn’t exactly Vox or Huffington Post... those ARE far left. Reuter’s is just a news service like the AP... Rasmussen and Zogby are into advocacy and their samples over sample Republicans on a consistent basis. There are some Democratic polls that also don’t pass muster. That said I WILL post any polls that come up on the RCP list regardless of my opinion of them. Someone dishonest wouldn’t bend over backwards to report the numbers honestly. They would just exclude them.

if you look at the 2016 presidential election they (Rassmussen) called it closer than any other polling service out there.

As a matter of fact, they got the popular vote almost spot on.

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I haven't heard him bad-mouth any of the far-left leaning polls, such as Politico or Reuters which consistently put Trump's disapproval margin between 11 and 15 points.

I wouldn’t call either of those “far left”... center left if you really want to but they are essentially center more than anything. Politico isn’t exactly Vox or Huffington Post... those ARE far left. Reuter’s is just a news service like the AP... Rasmussen and Zogby are into advocacy and their samples over sample Republicans on a consistent basis. There are some Democratic polls that also don’t pass muster. That said I WILL post any polls that come up on the RCP list regardless of my opinion of them. Someone dishonest wouldn’t bend over backwards to report the numbers honestly. They would just exclude them.

if you look at the 2016 presidential election they (Rassmussen) called it closer than any other polling service out there.

As a matter of fact, they got the popular vote almost spot on.

So they predicted a Clinton win in the popular vote by about 3 million?

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February 23

CBS News / YouGov
General Election:
Sanders 47 Trump 44
Biden 47 Trump 45
Warren 46 Trump 45
Buttigieg 44 Trump 44
Trump 45 Klobuchar 44
Trump 45 Bloomberg 42

University of Wisconsin / Wisconsin State Journal
Michigan:
Sanders 48 Trump 41
Buttigieg 47 Trump 41
Biden 47 Trump 43
Warren 46 Trump 43
Klobuchar 44 Trump 41

Wisconsin:
Sanders 46 Trump 44
Biden 45 Trump 43
Warren 46 Trump 44
Klobuchar 44 Trump 43
Trump 45 Buttigieg 43

Pennsylvania:
Sanders 47 Trump 45
Biden 46 Trump 45
Warren 45 Trump 45
Buttigieg 44 Trump 44
Klobuchar 43 Trump 43

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February 24

Roanoke College
Virginia:
Sanders 49 Trump 40
Buttigieg 47 Trump 40
Bloomberg 46 Trump 40
Biden 48 Trump 40
Klobuchar 46 Trump 39
Warren 48 Trump 41

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Busy week for me and for polls so here's trying to catch up:

February 27

Morning Call
Pennsylvania:
Sanders 49 Trump 46
Biden 47 Trump 47
Trump 48 Bloomberg 45
Trump 46 Buttigieg 45
Warren 47 Trump 47
Trump 45 Klobuchar 44

Marquette University
Wisconsin:
Sanders 48 Trump 46
Trump 46 Biden 46
Trump 45 Bloomberg 44
Trump 45 Buttigieg 45
Trump 47 Warren 44
Trump 46 Klobuchar 46

UNH
New Hampshire:
Sanders 46 Biden 46
Trump 46 Biden 44
Trump 47 Bloomberg 33 (Thats what it says)
Buttigieg 48 Trump 42

That UNH poll looks a little wonky...

February 28
FOX News
General Election:
Sanders 49 Trump 42
Biden 49 Trump 41
Bloomberg 48 Trump 40
Buttigieg 45 Trump 42
Warren 46 Trump 43
Klobuchar 44 Trump 43

Yahoo News / YouGov
General Election:
Sanders 48 Trump 42

CNN
Texas:
Trump 48 Sanders 46
Biden 48 Trump 47
Trump 47 Bloomberg 46
Trump 48 Buttigieg 47
Trump 47 Warren 47
Trump 48 Klobuchar 45

California:
Sanders 59 Trump 36
Biden 60 Trump 35
Bloomberg 55 Trump 35
Warren 56 Trump 37
Klobuchar 55 Trump 35

[The Sage]

Hey fellas,

Long time etc...

So what's the problem here with Trump?

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Hey fellas,

Long time etc...

So what's the problem here with Trump?

Where would you like to start there Sage?

[The Sage]

These polls are not what I am lead to believe. He's a shoe-in according to everyone here...

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These polls are not what I am lead to believe. He's a shoe-in according to everyone here...

Ah the folks on the Trump train will not exit until the thing inevitably derails... even FOX News is finding him in deep trouble to Bernie...