2020 Presidential Polls

[Bryce]

I'll add this in...

President Donald Trump is almost certain to win reelection in 2020, according to a political science professor whose “Primary Model” has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996.

“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Stony Brook Professor Helmut Norpoth told Mediaite Tuesday. He noted that his model, which he introduced in 1996, would have correctly predicted the outcome of all but two presidential elections in the last 108 years: “This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced.”

https://www.mediaite.com/news/trump-has ... professor/

[Rate This]

I'll add this in...

President Donald Trump is almost certain to win reelection in 2020, according to a political science professor whose “Primary Model” has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996.

“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Stony Brook Professor Helmut Norpoth told Mediaite Tuesday. He noted that his model, which he introduced in 1996, would have correctly predicted the outcome of all but two presidential elections in the last 108 years: “This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced.”

https://www.mediaite.com/news/trump-has ... professor/

Apparently he is anything but transparent about his model which makes me more than a tad suspicious...

[Rate This]

July 10

Data For Progress
General Election:
Biden 52 Trump 42

University of Auburn Montgomery
Alabama:
Trump 55 Biden 41

[Rate This]

July 12

CBS News / YouGov
Texas:
Trump 46 Biden 45

Florida:
Biden 48 Trump 42

Arizona:
Biden 46 Trump 46

University of Texas at Tyler / Dallas Morning News
Texas:
Biden 48 Trump 43

OANN / Gravis Marketing
Georgia:
Trump 48 Biden 45

John Zogby Strategies / EMI Research Solutions
Biden 49 Trump 42

[Rate This]

June 13

GQR Research
Nebraska CD-02:
Biden 51 Trump 44

St. Louis University / YouGov
Missouri:
Trump 50 Biden 43

RMG
General Election:
Biden 46 Trump 39

Redfield And Wilton Strategies
General Election:
Biden 48 Trump 39

PPP
Montana:
Trump 51 Biden 42

[audiophile]

Based on the number of Trump signs, I'd say it better than the polls indicate.

[Rate This]

Based on the number of Trump signs, I'd say it better than the polls indicate.

Aren’t you in a rural area?

[audiophile]

The governor says I'm not.

[Rate This]

The governor says I'm not.

What I’m saying is that if you are in a Republican area then I really don’t much care how many signs you see. In a competitive or Democratic leaning area it would be different. I was out in the hinterlands between Howell and Grand Rapids (Stay entirely South OT Lansing on the back roads) Trump signs everywhere but that’s not shocking or indicative of statewide support.

[Bryce]

I predict that this election, more than any other in recent history is going to be about getting your base out to vote and who is motivated enough to go to a polling place. Especially if the Covid-19 problem sticks with us through November. Polls on registered voters won't be close to being accurate. Do a poll on dedicated voters and you might be closer to the truth.

If you have a Trump sign in your yard, most likely, you're a dedicated voter. How many Biden signs are we seeing anywhere?

[Matt]

I predict that this election, more than any other in recent history is going to be about getting your base out to vote and who is motivated enough to go to a polling place. Especially if the Covid-19 problem sticks with us through November. Polls on registered voters won't be close to being accurate. Do a poll on dedicated voters and you might be closer to the truth.

If you have a Trump sign in your yard, most likely, you're a dedicated voter. How many Biden signs are we seeing anywhere?

I've seen 3 Biden signs in Northern Michigan and 2 in Ann Arbor.

[Rate This]

I predict that this election, more than any other in recent history is going to be about getting your base out to vote and who is motivated enough to go to a polling place. Especially if the Covid-19 problem sticks with us through November. Polls on registered voters won't be close to being accurate. Do a poll on dedicated voters and you might be closer to the truth.

If you have a Trump sign in your yard, most likely, you're a dedicated voter. How many Biden signs are we seeing anywhere?

Likely voter polls seem to narrow the gap by a point or maybe 2. It doesn’t seem to make THAT much of a difference and we are seeing more likely voter polls now...

[Rate This]

I predict that this election, more than any other in recent history is going to be about getting your base out to vote and who is motivated enough to go to a polling place. Especially if the Covid-19 problem sticks with us through November. Polls on registered voters won't be close to being accurate. Do a poll on dedicated voters and you might be closer to the truth.

If you have a Trump sign in your yard, most likely, you're a dedicated voter. How many Biden signs are we seeing anywhere?

Likely voter polls seem to narrow the gap by a point or maybe 2. It doesn’t seem to make THAT much of a difference and we are seeing more likely voter polls now...

The Trump signs have been out for awhile (he started running the day he was sworn in)... I imagine when Biden picks a running mate and gets those signs printed they’ll be popping up more. You can also have a small but dedicated base that 80% of them want and have a sign to put out front.

[Rate This]

July 14

Daily Kos / Civiqs
Montana:
Trump 49 Biden 45

Gravis Marketing
Florida:
Biden 53 Trump 43

OANN / Gravis Marketing
Texas:
Trump 46 Biden 44

[Lester The Nightfly]

Based on the number of Trump signs, I'd say it better than the polls indicate.

Ever notice when you're looking for, or have just purchased a new car that you see a large amount of commercials for that item or that there are a whole bunch of them on the road? Same thing with your Trump signs. It doesn't mean a thing.