2020 Presidential Polls

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This is all bunk if Russia butts in, again.

Numbers shnumbers.

Putin horning in will toss every poll the night before the election right into the ash can.

It happened last time. It’ll happen again.

Nothing was ever done on a grand yet detailed scale to prevent Putin’s expensive cyber warrior team. And now they’ve had four years to get even better.

It didn’t throw off any numbers. I’ve already explained it to you and don’t feel like doing it again. Go back and reread the thread.

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April 7

IBD/TIPP
Biden 47 Trump 41
Sanders 43 Trump 42

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April 8

Economist/YouGov
Biden 48 Trump 42
Sanders 48 Trump 42

Quinnipiac
Biden 49 Trump 41

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March 9

Monmouth
General Election:
Biden 48 Trump 44

CNN
General Election:
Biden 53 Trump 42

March 10

FOX News
General Election:
Biden 42 Trump 42

Between this and their wonky Trump Corona approval numbers I think the FOX poll is an outlier.

[Matt]

March 28

Fox News
General Election:
Biden 49 Trump 40

Even a Conservative outlet that does decent polling is showing him as a big underdog. I think we may be seeing some people give him a little credit for his handling of the virus but not changing their minds about whether he should be there or not.

What were the HilLIEery/T Rump numbers March 2016?

Here, I'll save you the time"

A CNN/ORC poll released Wednesday showed Clinton ahead of Trump nationwide, 54 to 41 percent, a result that's roughly in line with other recent polls. A Suffolk/USA Today poll from the end of last month found Clinton up 11 points, 50 to 39 percent. And a CBS News poll from mid-April showed Clinton ahead of Trump, 50 to 40 percent.

Your point being? We have years of experience with the guy and he barely won the electoral college last time. She won by 2.1% or 2.8 million votes in the popular vote. So she had an erosion of support from March to November 2016. That’s not relevant this time around with a more likable and popular candidate in the form of Biden. So far he hasn’t had some magical bounce in the polls from all of this virus stuff either. Not even from FOX... but unless he can chip away at these 7-10 point leads he will lose.

Fox doesn't use a "conservative" polling firm, and the firm they use does not have a stellar record, but you've never let facts get in the way of your narrative, so why start now? I'm always suspect of RV polls as opposed to LV polls. If Biden is your candidate (looking less likely every day that he'll be of sound mind), Trump will eat him alive. Biden has a big temper, just wait until he starts arguing with furniture.

Hmmmm....

Rate This has gone from quoting a Fox News poll to saying the recent poll is an outlier. I wonder what changed...

Oh wait, no I don't. It's a case of confirmation bias on his part.

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March 28

Fox News
General Election:
Biden 49 Trump 40

Even a Conservative outlet that does decent polling is showing him as a big underdog. I think we may be seeing some people give him a little credit for his handling of the virus but not changing their minds about whether he should be there or not.

What were the HilLIEery/T Rump numbers March 2016?

Here, I'll save you the time"

A CNN/ORC poll released Wednesday showed Clinton ahead of Trump nationwide, 54 to 41 percent, a result that's roughly in line with other recent polls. A Suffolk/USA Today poll from the end of last month found Clinton up 11 points, 50 to 39 percent. And a CBS News poll from mid-April showed Clinton ahead of Trump, 50 to 40 percent.

Your point being? We have years of experience with the guy and he barely won the electoral college last time. She won by 2.1% or 2.8 million votes in the popular vote. So she had an erosion of support from March to November 2016. That’s not relevant this time around with a more likable and popular candidate in the form of Biden. So far he hasn’t had some magical bounce in the polls from all of this virus stuff either. Not even from FOX... but unless he can chip away at these 7-10 point leads he will lose.

Fox doesn't use a "conservative" polling firm, and the firm they use does not have a stellar record, but you've never let facts get in the way of your narrative, so why start now? I'm always suspect of RV polls as opposed to LV polls. If Biden is your candidate (looking less likely every day that he'll be of sound mind), Trump will eat him alive. Biden has a big temper, just wait until he starts arguing with furniture.

Hmmmm....

Rate This has gone from quoting a Fox News poll to saying the recent poll is an outlier. I wonder what changed...

Oh wait, no I don't. It's a case of confirmation bias on his part.

It’s an outlier because it’s way out of line with all of the other recent data. That’s just statistical language. It can vary poll to poll. The previous poll was in line with most everybody else’s as their others have been. Either they got a wonky sample or they are on the cutting edge. Time will tell. But it’s not confirmation bias. It’s me narrating as it comes in.

[Matt]

Maybe it's a header poll? Look, I don't think Trump is great, but he's light years better than a mentally diminished Joe Biden. The guy is older today than Trump would be after a second term. The average age of our major candidates is ALMOST higher than the life expectancy for men in this country.

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Maybe it's a header poll? Look, I don't think Trump is great, but he's light years better than a mentally diminished Joe Biden. The guy is older today than Trump would be after a second term. The average age of our major candidates is ALMOST higher than the life expectancy for men in this country.

I don’t really understand how 3 of the last four presidents were born in either 1945 (Trump) or 1946 (Clinton and W. Bush). Their opponents after 2000 were born in 1948 (Gore), 1943 (Kerry), 1936 (McCain), 1947 (Romney), 1947 (Clinton) and now 1942 (Biden). Are we just gonna forgo presidents in 10 years when these folks are all dead or something? Obama is the only person to be nominated born after 1950... he was born in 1961. Just an observation but something has to give here.

[Matt]

Trump is actually 1946 as well. Trump, Bush, and Clinton were all born within 67 days of each other in the "summer" of 1946.

[audiophile]

Baby!!!

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Trump is actually 1946 as well. Trump, Bush, and Clinton were all born within 67 days of each other in the "summer" of 1946.

That’s even worse...

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April 14

VCU
Virginia:
Biden 51 Trump 41

Hartford Courant / Sacred Heart
Connecticut:
Biden 47 Trump 34

OH Predictive Insights
Arizona:
Biden 52 Trump 43

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April 15

Economist / YouGov
General Election:
Biden 48 Trump 43

Civitas / Harper (R)
North Carolina:
Trump 49 Biden 42

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April 16

PPP (D)
North Carolina:
Biden 48 Trump 47

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April 19

NBC News / Wall Street Journal
General Election:
Biden 49 Trump 42

Harvard-Harris
General Election:
Biden 53 Trump 47

Indy Politics / Change Research (D)
Indiana:
Trump 52 Biden 39

St. Pete Polls
Florida:
Biden 48 Trump 48