I fully support the Trump immigration proposal

[Turkeytop]

The National Emergency thing almost certainly wouldn’t pass muster.

I disagree. See here: https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/2808
and here: https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/33/2293

Basically, if a wall can be deemed "essential to the national defense" then it would pass muster. Remember, Courts typically give the President very broad powers in areas of national defense.

If he plays the National Emergency card, the wall will never be built. Clearly there is no emergency and everyone, including Trump, knows it.

Trump has, at best, two more years in office. Two years from now, there wouldn't yet be shovels in the ground.

The next President, Dem, or Rep would immediately rescind the emergency order.

[Deleted User 4520]

It was sad when Trump couldn't get the wall done when republicans controlled both the house and senate. Now it's an uphill battle. Democrats in the past have been for a wall of sorts but now only object because they hate Trump. How is this serving the American people? These people work for US, and as far as I'm concerned they are not doing their jobs and should be fired. You know damn well if we weren't doing our jobs we'd get our asses fired.

[Deleted User 8570]

NS - I have to again point out that Democrats are behaving like they control everything, when in reality all they control is the House. Republicans control the Senate and the executive branch. And with their solid 5-4 majority on the Supreme Court, any challenge to a declaration of national emergency has a high chance of being shot down.

Part of negotiating is knowing how much leverage you have, and right now, democrats don't have nearly as much as they're acting like they have. This is what happens when you've been completely out of power for two years and then you get a shred of it back - suddenly you think you run everything.

Bottom line is that Trump has the upper-hand in the negotiations, and I predict that he has made his final offer. I'm not sure I agree with MW's idea of announcing to the dems that they have 2 weeks or else a national emergency will be declared - doing so would almost certainly close the door to any possible negotiations and dems would immediately lawyer up and shift their focus to challenging a national emergency. That, and Trump has always said he's not one to set deadlines - he acts when he believes the time is right to act. I say let this play out and see if public opinion shifts at all over the next week or if any dems show signs of cracking (Pelosi isn't the end-all, be-all of the democrat party, btw)

Trump does not have the upper hand... not at all. The Democrats have public opinion against the wall on their side. They have trump under water around 60-40 approval wise. A majority don’t support the wall. A 60-30 majority blame Trump for the shutdown (ok that one was on Trump for being a terrible strategist and owning it preemptively for no good reason). The Democrats are supposing (probably correctly) that if they sit and wait Trump out the mounting pressure on him to reopen the government that the public feels he is holding hostage will be too great and he will crack and capitulate to them. Their base will kill them if they do anything to allow a wall same as Trumps base without one. If he decides to go the national emergency route they figure given that a 60-40 majority don’t want the wall built he will do more political harm than good to himself and they’d be happy with that too. He’d get his wall and then be crushed in 2020 worse than he probably already will. There isn’t much Trump can do to win in this game... if the public doesn’t suddenly blame the Democrats or love the wall then he is screwed. End of story. They had their golden opportunity before January 3rd... the GOP blew it.

As for the Senate... you realize it has a small state bias that presently causes Republican states to be vastly overrepresented relative to population vis a vis the blue states right? So 30% or so of the population is essentially running 3/4 of the government... Trump was elected by a minority... the GOP represents a minority of the people with a majority in the senate and the Supreme Court is majority GOP due to some good fortune on their part and a little sausage making from McConnell...

With basically everything against you guys you’d think there would be some sort of pivot or hitting the brakes before the cliff or something... but towards the edge you go...

[MWmetalhead]

The Democrats will overplay their hand, just like they did on Justice Kavanaugh and just like they did on Obamacare reform.

The Democrats are supposing (probably correctly) that if they sit and wait Trump out the mounting pressure on him to reopen the government that the public feels he is holding hostage will be too great and he will crack and capitulate to them.

Idiotic thinking on their part, He won't capitulate; he'll declare a national emergency. Then, the Dems will get NOTHING that they want with regard to the Dreamers, family reunification procedures, etc.

If he decides to go the national emergency route they figure given that a 60-40 majority don’t want the wall built he will do more political harm than good to himself and they’d be happy with that too.

I disagree that the mere action of declaring an emergency to get the wall built will tick of swing voters like you are projecting. This is a flashpoint issue with liberals (who would never vote to reelect Trump in a million years anyway) and with conservatives (who by & large want the wall!).

He’d get his wall and then be crushed in 2020 worse than he probably already will. There isn’t much Trump can do to win in this game... if the public doesn’t suddenly blame the Democrats or love the wall then he is screwed. End of story. They had their golden opportunity before January 3rd... the GOP blew it.

He can win by making a reasonable proposal (just as he did on Saturday), giving the Dems a chance to cooperate, and then if they refuse to cooperate, concurrently declaring an emergency and reopening the government. Public opinion would be split pretty close to 50/50 under such a scenario. Politically speaking, it'd be a "push."

[bmw]

NS - public opinion on this issue is largely irrelevant to who has the upper hand on this issue, just as I pointed out in here on the Obamacare issue. The public didn't want Obamacare, but democrats narrowly (and by narrowly, I mean by a single vote) had the upper hand, and they got it passed.

Granted, republicans don't have the actual votes right now to get a wall done, but they do hold the executive branch as well as enough support (for the foreseeable future) to prevent any override of Trump's veto of the spending bill.

Trump already said the shutdown might last for years. He's in this for the long haul, and democrats obviously haven't figured that out yet.

[bmw]

If he plays the National Emergency card, the wall will never be built. Clearly there is no emergency and everyone, including Trump, knows it.

I know you're Canadian, but I also assume you know how our media in the states works. If our media wanted to portray the border situation as a national emergency, they could do it, easily. But they have no interest in doing so, and hence, there's no appearance of a national emergency. There's plenty of drugs coming in over the border, and plenty of illegals who came across the border who are committing felonies, and hence, enough personal interest stories to cover 24/7 if the media chose to do so.

[Turkeytop]

So, are you suggesting that the media should aid Trump in whipping up hysteria about a non emergency?

[bmw]

No that is not what I'm suggesting. But some balanced reporting would be nice. They're whipping up hysteria about government workers not getting paid. I'm fine with them covering that aspect of the story, but when you do personal interest story after personal interest story after personal interest story about Joe or Jane Smith who can't pay their mortgage next month due to the shutdown, a few personal interest stories about people affected by illegal immigration would be a fair balance.

[Deleted User 4520]

The media should spin the fact (I'm assuming) these well paid government workers must not have banked any money to last a couple of months in case of an emergency. Wonder if there is too much money mismanagement here to the point that they are living paycheck to paycheck where they don't have anything leftover to save. If so, some of this is on them.

personal interest story about Joe or Jane Smith who can't pay their mortgage next month due to the shutdown, a few personal interest stories about people affected by illegal immigration would be a fair balance.

[bmw]

Not to mention that people working for the private sector deal with company closings, shutdowns, and layoffs all the time. Yet I don't see the media covering any stories of the hundreds to thousands of average private sector factory workers or small business owners who ends up out of a job every single day. And those people aren't eventually getting paid, either, like the government workers will. All this sympathy for government workers and nobody else.

What is it about government work that is so sacred anyways? Why should collecting a paycheck from the government be guaranteed? My view is if you apply for and get a government job, you do so knowing the risks involved with working for government, such as shutdowns. Government jobs should have risks just like any private sector job.

[Lester The Nightfly]

Not to mention that people working for the private sector deal with company closings, shutdowns, and layoffs all the time. Yet I don't see the media covering any stories of the hundreds to thousands of average private sector factory workers or small business owners who ends up out of a job every single day. And those people aren't eventually getting paid, either, like the government workers will. All this sympathy for government workers and nobody else.

But..but... I was lead to believe Trump had the whole unemployment thing fixed.

[screen glare]

Donald Trump is mentally ill. That is why every aspect of his life including his presidency and now the entire country is in constant upheaval and chaos.

Up is down. Down is up. You can’t count on anything being conducted or operating in a normal fashion. Throughout his presidency we endure insults, erratic cockamamie behaviors, never ending lies, knee jerk reaction edicts, an endless coming and going of staff in the white house and Pentagon, craven policies that harm children, threats to NATO, engaging in hours of secret talks with Putin, denial of environmental science, etc. etc. etc. - all on daily display.

Does anyone else get the feeling that something surprising is going to happen that will put a sudden stop to this Trumped up show before a worldwide audience - in an unexpected, historic, and dramatic moment? Kind of like a passenger pulling the emergency brake on a dangerous run away train - because all the other passengers are screaming helplessly - in fear of their lives and the lives of their families.

Maybe it’s just exhaustion from all the Trump madness. Maybe it’s his shutting down the government that feels like the last straw before an epic point of no return. Whatever it is - it’s pervasive. It’s draining. It’s unprecedented. It’s fear inducing. And it’s sick.

[Turkeytop]

I spend about five months of my year in the U.S. should I be fearful because there is no wall?

[Deleted User 8570]

I spend about five months of my year in the U.S. should I be fearful because there is no wall?

Solution: just jump off a bridge... it’s all over but the shouting here... spare the illegals the pleasure of killing you slowly with their bare brown hands...