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Predictions on how and when the shutdown ends

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MWmetalhead
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Re: Predictions on how and when the shutdown ends

Post by MWmetalhead » Sat Jan 26, 2019 9:14 am

Regarding all bark & no bite:
- Trump has failed to hold Saudi Arabia accountable for humanitarian atrocities;
- His (sloppily waged) fight for a legislative replacement to Obamacare failed;
- He's flipped & flopped on Syria;
- The USMCA still has not been voted on by Congress;
- We're still waiting for a national infrastructure proposal;
- We're still waiting for a prescription drugs regulatory reform proposal;
- We're still waiting for a "wall."

The only three major promises Trump has kept: broad income tax reform, commercial regulatory relief and withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal. Only the first of these three items required legislative approval. Thus, the latter two are not exactly a credit to Trump's self-professed negotiating prowess.


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bmw
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Re: Predictions on how and when the shutdown ends

Post by bmw » Sat Jan 26, 2019 10:23 am

That's not entirely fair. Trump has quite a few major accomplishments, many of which were made in the face of serious opposition by liberals. The biggest of which was delivering on his promise to put conservative judges on the Supreme Court.
He could have easily caved on Kavanaugh by withdrawing his nomination, but in the end Trump won that battle despite an immense smear campaign against Kavanaugh. This was a major accomplishment, IMO.

Other notable accomplishments:
-The USCMA Trade agreement between the US, Mexico, and Canada (verdict still out, but I expect this to be ratified this year)
-Withdrawal from the Paris Agreement (libs threw a fit over this one)
-Moved the US Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem (many libs threw a fit over this one despite some supporting the proposed move in the past)
-North Korea summit (long-term verdict still out but for the time being Kim Jong Un seems to have been kept in check)



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MWmetalhead
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Re: Predictions on how and when the shutdown ends

Post by MWmetalhead » Sat Jan 26, 2019 10:50 am

Many of those examples are not indicative of negotiating ability.

-USCMA: hasn't even been voted on by Congress yet. (I do support the deal reached, and I've given Trump credit in the past for that. BUT - it hasn't been codified into law yet.)
-Withdrawal from Paris climate accord: no legislative approval required; no negotiating skill required.
-Movement of U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem: who gives a flying f*ck. This issue wasn't even on the radar for 95%+ of the voting public. This matter also required no new Congressional approval (it was permitted by an existing law that dates back to 1995). No negotiating skill required.
- North Korea summit: Served to de-escalate tensions after Trump had a hand in escalating tensions.
- Kavanaugh: His nomination was approved by a GOP-led Senate. Was a much more troublesome process than it should've been. I don't give Trump credit for the outcome here. Kavanaugh's passionate defense & testimony before the Senate is single-handedly responsible.

Trump is such a GREAT negotiator that his first several choices for running mate all turned him down. :lol

Great negotiators don't have subordinates and bevvies of lawyers do their bidding.


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Re: Predictions on how and when the shutdown ends

Post by bmw » Sat Jan 26, 2019 11:00 am

It was more of a response to the "all bark no bite" comment. He did some largely unpopular things that he had promised to do, and did so in spite of united opposition from the left and even some moderates.



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Re: Predictions on how and when the shutdown ends

Post by MWmetalhead » Sat Jan 26, 2019 11:10 am

Fair enough. Indeed, he's kept some of campaign promises and delivered on those items successfully. BUT - the hurdle for being able to deliver on most of those items was not particularly high.

He kept citing his negotiating prowess during the campaign. I've yet to see substantial evidence that it's a strong asset in terms of policy making through the legislative process. Yes, he got tax reform done - but Republicans controlled both chambers. Not exactly a tough challenge.


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Re: Predictions on how and when the shutdown ends

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Sat Jan 26, 2019 5:56 pm

MWmetalhead wrote:
Sat Jan 26, 2019 11:10 am
Fair enough. Indeed, he's kept some of campaign promises and delivered on those items successfully. BUT - the hurdle for being able to deliver on most of those items was not particularly high.

He kept citing his negotiating prowess during the campaign. I've yet to see substantial evidence that it's a strong asset in terms of policy making through the legislative process. Yes, he got tax reform done - but Republicans controlled both chambers. Not exactly a tough challenge.
It’s also a hugely unpopular accomplishment... so the only major thing he did nobody likes...



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Re: Predictions on how and when the shutdown ends

Post by Turkeytop » Sat Jan 26, 2019 7:16 pm

He's doing not too bad.

Repeal Obamacare O

Build the wall. O

Trade war. X

Tax cuts for the rich. X

Longest shutdown ever X

Belated State of Union. x



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Re: Predictions on how and when the shutdown ends

Post by MWmetalhead » Sun Jan 27, 2019 8:06 am

It’s also a hugely unpopular accomplishment... so the only major thing he did nobody likes...
I don't hear too many people complaining about having more money in their pockets.

Most people who disapprove of it do so because they wanted an even larger tax cut.

Last poll I saw showed 39% approving and 46% disapproving. Not exactly "hugely unpopular," but certainly not a political success story, either.


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Re: Predictions on how and when the shutdown ends

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Sun Jan 27, 2019 12:48 pm

MWmetalhead wrote:
Sun Jan 27, 2019 8:06 am
It’s also a hugely unpopular accomplishment... so the only major thing he did nobody likes...
I don't hear too many people complaining about having more money in their pockets.

Most people who disapprove of it do so because they wanted an even larger tax cut.

Last poll I saw showed 39% approving and 46% disapproving. Not exactly "hugely unpopular," but certainly not a political success story, either.
The amount of “more money in my pocket” is negligible... I might get 10-15 more dollars... I’m not sold that it’s worth overheating the economy over... GDP forecasts for later this year are already returning to... wait for it... around 2%... thought the tax cut was supposed to magically cure this supposed ailment?

Now if I made a million a year instead of 47,000 I would probably be saving some real money but as it stands this tax cut (plus the elimination of deductions on property tax above $10,000) doesn’t seem to do much for me in the pocketbook and will hurt those folks in high tax blue states where that $10,000 property tax is a real consideration.

The overarching fact is that a tax cut during an expansion like this rather than as a stimulus out of a recession is a completely inappropriate use of the tool.



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