Election predictions thread

[Deleted User 14896]

Donald tried and convicted of treason and money laundering in March.

I'm not prepared to predict the winner of the election. However, I predict that if Joe wins, he takes the high road and pardons Trump of all high crimes and misdemeanors.

[TC Talks]

Donald tried and convicted of treason and money laundering in March.

I'm not prepared to predict the winner of the election. However, I predict that if Joe wins, he takes the high road and pardons Trump of all high crimes and misdemeanors.

Most of Trump's problems are with the state of New York. Biden won't get involved with the state prosecution.

[TC Talks]

Yep, and you would win roughly 12 to 1 on your money ($1200 for a $100 purchase)

Thanks....I'll give it a shot.

These guys pay off, huh? Some on-line sites are sketchy.

They are owned and run by a major university in New Zealand. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PredictIt

I've never personally cashed out (I still have like $2400 in my account) but there are Disquss comments sections in every market (some of them VERY active) and nobody has once complained that I've ever seen about not getting paid.

That will be the Republicans next plan in the state of Michigan; merge community college with gambling. I'm surprised they haven't made gas pumps slot machines as a way to pay for the roads.

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

TCT - your map is plausible with one exception - Indiana. It is the reddest of red states - in fact, it is even a heavier red favorite (95) than California is blue (94).

EDIT - oh, and Arkansas. It is one of only 2 red states rated at 98.

I missed Indiana. I agree with that. AR wouldn't make much difference but I believe it will be blue.

Are you confusing Arkansas and Iowa? There's not a chance Arkansas goes blue....

Arkansas hasn't gone blue since 96, and that was only because it was Bill's home state.
Must think it's the 90s. He just misses AOL instant messenger. I think we all do.

[Matt]

My gut says two things - 1) Trump is going to win, and 2) No matter what happens, the country is going to be ok.

Having said that, I'm going against my gut and predicting a modest Biden win. I think we'll have a good idea tonight. This won't be a 2000 redo.

[Rate This]

My gut says two things - 1) Trump is going to win, and 2) No matter what happens, the country is going to be ok.

Having said that, I'm going against my gut and predicting a modest Biden win. I think we'll have a good idea tonight. This won't be a 2000 redo.

Florida and North Carolina may be your early tells. Everybody else has such a crush of absentee ballots to go through and they have to wait till the polls close that we will probably know something by Thursday or Friday. We won’t know enough tonight to declare a winner whether Trump goes out there at 10pm and declares victory anyways or not.

[audiophile]

I don't do election predictions because BMW is better at it than I am.

...But I think TCT is dreaming on AR.

[Rate This]

Biden wins 351-169 In the Electoral college with Ohio’s 18 a coin flip. Biden wins Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, Nebraska 2, Maine 2 and Florida. Trump wins Iowa and Texas.

[bmw]

351-169 In the Electoral college with Ohio’s 18 a coin flip. Biden wins Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, Nebraska 2, Maine 2 and Florida. Trump wins Iowa and Texas.

For what it's worth, your prediction falls within the favored "Dems by 150 to 209" in the electoral college.

btw - I'm moving Georgia from the long shot column to pipe dream column based on recent polling. Everything else you project is viable and is probably pretty close to what the final results look like in a moderate Biden blow-out scenario.

[Rate This]

351-169 In the Electoral college with Ohio’s 18 a coin flip. Biden wins Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, Nebraska 2, Maine 2 and Florida. Trump wins Iowa and Texas.

For what it's worth, your prediction falls within the favored "Dems by 150 to 209" in the electoral college.

btw - I'm moving Georgia from the long shot column to pipe dream column based on recent polling. Everything else you project is viable and is probably pretty close to what the final results look like in a moderate Biden blow-out scenario.

Georgia is the longest of long shots but the polling is all over the place.

Here’s my senate:
Democrats win the Senate back 54-46. They pick up seats in Arizona, Colorado, Maine, Iowa, Georgia, Montana and North Carolina.


Democrats hold the house and gain 10-15 seats.

Locally Slotkin and Stevens are re-elected as is Peters. Biden wins Michigan in a walk.

[km1125]

The scariest thing about a Biden/Harris win is that folks will promote it as an endorsement of their policies and agenda rather than what folks have been saying for the last year - that it is a rebuke of Trump's personality and persona.

[Rate This]

The scariest thing about a Biden/Harris win is that folks will promote it as an endorsement of their policies and agenda rather than what folks have been saying for the last year - that it is a rebuke of Trump's personality and persona.

While there is some of that... it’s not THAT big of an effect. The Democrats have won the popular vote in every election going back to 1992 with the exception of 2004. So it’s no secret what the Democrats stand for and it doesn’t scare enough people obviously.

[Matt]

The scariest thing about a Biden/Harris win is that folks will promote it as an endorsement of their policies and agenda rather than what folks have been saying for the last year - that it is a rebuke of Trump's personality and persona.

While there is some of that... it’s not THAT big of an effect. The Democrats have won the popular vote in every election going back to 1992 with the exception of 2004. So it’s no secret what the Democrats stand for and it doesn’t scare enough people obviously.

This is some cherry picking nonsense. Obama got over 50% both times, and Bush did in 2004. The other 4 elections have been popular votes less than 50% of the electorate. Pluralites gained by running up the score in California and New York are not representative of the country at large.

[Rate This]

The scariest thing about a Biden/Harris win is that folks will promote it as an endorsement of their policies and agenda rather than what folks have been saying for the last year - that it is a rebuke of Trump's personality and persona.

While there is some of that... it’s not THAT big of an effect. The Democrats have won the popular vote in every election going back to 1992 with the exception of 2004. So it’s no secret what the Democrats stand for and it doesn’t scare enough people obviously.

This is some cherry picking nonsense. Obama got over 50% both times, and Bush did in 2004. The other 4 elections have been popular votes less than 50% of the electorate. Pluralites gained by running up the score in California and New York are not representative of the country at large.

That it wasn’t above 50% is irrelevant. If the other side had better ideas they would be more popular and they would win more. That’s all there is to it. If you need a crutch to save you from certain defeat over and over again then you probably have a messaging or ideas problem. When the Democrats ideas are polled they come up broadly popular. As in well over 50%. The Republicans are very good at demonizing them. The Democrats flat out suck at combating that. They basically roll over like wallflowers.

[Honeyman]

Biden -180 at Bovada
https://www.bovada.lv/sports/politics

Biden now -205 at Bovada. Lotta money comin' in on him.