Let's talk about Sweden

[bmw]

I am suggesting that the US lacks a proper education system like Sweden has and that we need Shelter in Place for our ignorant and entitled citizens.

Grand Rapids (1 million people) has 1 death.

You'll get no argument from me that our education system doesn't suck. But again - are these so-called "ignorant and entitled citizens" actually obeying the shelter-in-place order? If northbound traffic on US-23 last weekend and this weekend where I live is any indication, I would say that the answer is largely "no." So we're back to, make the good guy suffer while the bad guy is still behaving like an idiot.

[TC Talks]

Now we're playing victim? BTW, how do you think Trump is doing? None of his promises are coming through.


We have regulations for all of the health risks you posted. The morbidity rate of COVID is tracking to be higher than any of these items.

[bmw]

The experts who are doing the computer modeling and trying to make various projections regarding the curve almost unanimously agree that the actual infection rate is probably 10x higher than the reported cases (the median range I'm seeing is that of only 9-12% of actual cases are being reported). Assuming that most of those are mild cases and that most of the ones resulting in death are at least being tested post-mortem and still being counted, that brings the actual mortality rate down to well under 1 percent - possibly as low as only double or triple that of the seasonal flu as opposed to 20x to 30x.

As to how Trump is doing - I think he's doing the best he can with the hand he's been dealt. I'm not even remotely convinced that somebody else in the White House would have done a better job.

[Rate This]

If it saves people... which cannot be rebuilt, reimagined or fixed after they are gone than yes. The economy will live on and all of those things above will happen. Have some humanity for once.

Being accused of having no humanity is becoming rather tiresome. I think I've made my position quite clear - that I think some of what we're doing as a society will cause more damage to humanity as a whole in the long-term than will this virus. You can disagree with that assertion all you want, but don't call me inhumane just because my opinion of what would be best for humanity is different from yours.

Now that said, I presume you're in favor of the following:

1 - Banning all cell phones until we can get 100% of the population to stop texting while driving
2 - Banning all medications that have a possible side effect of "death."
3 - Banning tobacco (second-hand smoke kills)
4 - Banning alcohol (drunken boyfriends kill women)
6 - Banning all guns (guns kill lots of people)
7 - Banning knives (knives are used to kill people)
8 - Banning any other item or activity that carries a risk of killing somebody other than one's self.

Got it.

We have put in place processes that greatly encourage businesses to furlough workers... did you miss that part? It was big news and it runs through July. The economic damage isn’t going to be nearly as bad as it would have been otherwise.

I’m not in favor of permanent bans of anything. But temporary restrictions for the good of the larger group I can deal with. Do you require a definition of temporary? You don’t seem to get what it means. Give it till the end of the month or so and things will reopen as conditions permit. Most people are dealing with it for the good of the group as a whole. I guess you can be too much of an individualist and that seems to be where you’re coming from.

[zzand]

BMW, simple advice. Live your life your way. Please be mindful that while doing so you don't put others at risk. You talk as though you have this whole thing figured out and you are right and the rest of the world is by and large wrong. I say go for it. I said elsewhere and will say again, I applaud your standing up for your thoughts and beliefs, but instead of trying, with no success I might add, to bring people into your way of thinking, just do your thing. Then you can rightfully say I was right and you all were wrong.

[TC Talks]

Here's Sweden then...
https://youtu.be/0wpkFZUougc

And...two days ago

Sweden has a relatively high case fatality rate: as of April 8, 7.68% of the Swedes who have tested positive for COVID-19 have died of the virus. Neighboring countries, like Norway and Denmark, have case fatality rates of 1.46% and 3.85% respectively. (The U.S. case fatality rate is 3.21%.) While Sweden’s elevated case fatality rate could be a result of its low testing rates compared to its neighbors, experts say Sweden’s laissez-faire approach could also be to blame.

[bmw]

Nice try, TC. You want to talk about fatality rate? Considering that we don't know with any degree of accuracy whatsoever the actual infection rate is, let's compare the actual death rate as a per-capital ratio of the entire population. Using yesterday's numbers:

1 in 3,100 Italy (19,470)
1 in 3,400 Belgium (3,346)
1 in 3,500 Spain (13,353)
1 in 4,850 France (13,814)
1 in 6,550 Netherlands (2,643)
1 in 6,750 UK (9,875)
1 in 7,200 Michigan (1,392)
1 in 10,300 Switzerland (831)
1 in 11,500 Sweden (887)
1 in 15,300 Ireland (320)
1 in 21,900 Portugal(470)
1 in 26,300 Austria (337)
1 in 31,000 Germany (2,673)
1 in 74,500 Turkey (1,101)
1 in 92,500 Israel (96)
1 in 94,700 Poland (401)

I put Michigan in there for comparison. The first number is the fatality rate within the entire population, the number in () is the raw death toll. So even looking at just raw death rates, Sweden is smack-dab in the middle of the pack and is still doing more than twice as well as Italy, Spain, and France. Sweden is even doing better than Michigan - one of the most locked-down states in the country.

If you were to just look at that data above and I were to tell you that every country (and state) except for one implemented strict restrictions, but one country remained basically fully open and without restriction, would you guess Sweden is that country just based on the above data? Of course not. You'd say it is probably Italy, Belgium, or Spain.

Bottom line is there is no correlation whatsoever between how many people are dying in a country and to what degree that country is locking itself down. It is a shame we don't have a few more countries staying open so that we had a larger sample size.

[Rate This]

Nice try, TC. You want to talk about fatality rate? Considering that we don't know with any degree of accuracy whatsoever the actual infection rate is, let's compare the actual death rate as a per-capital ratio of the entire population. Using yesterday's numbers:

1 in 3,100 Italy (19,470)
1 in 3,400 Belgium (3,346)
1 in 3,500 Spain (13,353)
1 in 4,850 France (13,814)
1 in 6,550 Netherlands (2,643)
1 in 6,750 UK (9,875)
1 in 7,200 Michigan (1,392)
1 in 10,300 Switzerland (831)
1 in 11,500 Sweden (887)
1 in 15,300 Ireland (320)
1 in 21,900 Portugal(470)
1 in 26,300 Austria (337)
1 in 31,000 Germany (2,673)
1 in 74,500 Turkey (1,101)
1 in 92,500 Israel (96)
1 in 94,700 Poland (401)

I put Michigan in there for comparison. The first number is the fatality rate within the entire population, the number in () is the raw death toll. So even looking at just raw death rates, Sweden is smack-dab in the middle of the pack and is still doing more than twice as well as Italy, Spain, and France. Sweden is even doing better than Michigan - one of the most locked-down states in the country.

We aren’t really all that locked down if you think about it. This really relies partially on people not being willing to test that but I’ve been out and about freely the whole time with nobody bothering me.

I do have my doubts that we go from a 3.7% death rate to 0.5% with increased testing. That would be a massive drop.

[bmw]

Sure - it is difficult to enforce the movement of people considering that there are a number of exemptions that do allow people to travel, and obviously as a practical matter the police can't just pull over every car and ask you where you're going.

However, the one aspect that is being enforced is the forced closure of businesses not allowed to be open. Many businesses banned from being open here in Michigan are allowed to be and are STILL open in Sweden - yet, they aren't any worse off than we are, even with all their extra open businesses and extra person-to-person interactions.

[km1125]

I do have my doubts that we go from a 3.7% death rate to 0.5% with increased testing. That would be a massive drop.

Knowing there are a H U G E number of folks out there that even have worrisome symptoms but can't even qualify for testing and there's that whole other group who have very minor symptoms and don't even bother trying to get tested, it's easy to see that percentage go WAY down quickly if we actually tested everyone who has the remote possibility of being infected. I don't know if that gets you all the way from 3.7% to 0.5%, but it would make a big dent.

[bmw]

It is going to be LESS than 0.5% when the dust settles.

This, from just 2 days ago:

Professor Hendrik Streeck, a German virologist that led the study, started their research in the country's outbreak center called Gangelt. With the help of the University of Bonn in Germany, Streeck tested 1,000 people from 400 households in Gangelt for antibodies.

Shockingly, the initial results showed two percent from them were still currently infected with the virus, while 14 percent had shown antibodies to the virus. This means that the community now has nearly 15 percent of immunity from the virus-- which seemed to be the highest percentage of Coronavirus herd immunity in the world.

https://www.techtimes.com/articles/2487 ... vid-19.htm

Let those numbers sink in for a minute. That means that for every person within that sample who currently has the virus, there are 7 who already had the virus and recovered. That alone knocks the mortality rate down to well under 1 percent.

Then, if you look at the 2% who did currently have it, that number is also significantly lower than the 0.3% infection rate all of Germany is reporting.

This also isn't the first study of this kind. There have been several others that have shown similar results.

The actual mortality rate looks to in reality be in a range between 0.05% and 0.5%.

[audiophile]

Very similar to this story: https://mibuzzboard.com/phpBB3/viewtopi ... 24&t=50128

[audiophile]

Herd Immunity In Sweden within weeks?

https://thehill.com/changing-america/we ... 2CUuEirGGs

[bmw]

I believe that when the history books are written, they will say that Sweden got it right while the rest of the world got it wrong.

[Deleted User 13307]

Assuming there are people willing to write the history books impartially.