2024 General Election Polling Thread

[zzand]

One has to wonder Honeyman, how much will he hurt Trump, if at all?

[Honeyman]

One has to wonder Honeyman, how much will he hurt Trump, if at all?

Hard to say....he's not helping, that's for sure.

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One has to wonder Honeyman, how much will he hurt Trump, if at all?

I really hope there is an effect from that and an underlying one we aren’t catching. No candidates position in a race can possibly be this impervious to everybody else imploding around him and bad news and the other side being wildly enthusiastic and registrations being way up. It makes no damn sense.

[bmw]

You can add another one to the list. Quinnipiac. https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3909

Trump +6 in Georgia
Trump +2 in NC

Trump even leads in both states on the topic of "Preserving democracy in the United States." What are your thoughts on that one, Matt?

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You can add another one to the list. Quinnipiac. https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3909

Trump +6 in Georgia
Trump +2 in NC

Trump even leads in both states on the topic of "Preserving democracy in the United States." What are your thoughts on that one, Matt?

That rather strains credulity potentially to its breaking point. It sounds like they oversampled Republicans. In fact in Georgia I’m almost certain they did. It’s 6% more Republican than either Democrats or independents. It should likely be a 2 or 3% difference.

I’m supposed to believe that 18-34 year olds in North Carolina are going 57-39 for Trump and 49-44 in Georgia. WTF. I can smell the bullshit there through my screen. There’s your problem. These samples are fucked up in some way. There is no way in hell he’s winning young people by 18 anywhere. Ok maybe Idaho or some place that’ll be red until the end of the world.

I am also supposed to believe that Robinson is simultaneously down double digits BUT the voters want him staying in by double digits.

[TC Talks]

Actually, Trump has been doing well with Evangelistic Christians. I follow "Christian Nightmares" on IG and I can tell you that there are MANY misguided Christian Youth singing Trump songs and generally promoting him to other Evangelical youth. NC and Georgia would be ripe for this kind of ignorance. Young rural men also are the one's I see driving their rusty pick up with the Trump flags.

He has always done well with ignorant rural youth.

[Rate This]

Actually, Trump has been doing well with Evangelistic Christians. I follow "Christian Nightmares" on IG and I can tell you that there are MANY misguided Christian Youth singing Trump songs and generally promoting him to other Evangelical youth. NC and Georgia would be ripe for this kind of ignorance. Young rural men also are the one's I see driving their rusty pick up with the Trump flags.

He has always done well with ignorant rural youth.

Yeah but 18 points (!)? Both states have their rural areas but Atlanta and the research triangle aren’t the size of Omer either.

[TC Talks]

Actually, Trump has been doing well with Evangelistic Christians. I follow "Christian Nightmares" on IG and I can tell you that there are MANY misguided Christian Youth singing Trump songs and generally promoting him to other Evangelical youth. NC and Georgia would be ripe for this kind of ignorance. Young rural men also are the one's I see driving their rusty pick up with the Trump flags.

He has always done well with ignorant rural youth.

Yeah but 18 points (!)? Both states have their rural areas but Atlanta and the research triangle aren’t the size of Omer either.

Most youth aren't "Likely Voters". I suspect they can't get them to respond, thus you have AltasIntell type measuring.

[Rate This]

Actually, Trump has been doing well with Evangelistic Christians. I follow "Christian Nightmares" on IG and I can tell you that there are MANY misguided Christian Youth singing Trump songs and generally promoting him to other Evangelical youth. NC and Georgia would be ripe for this kind of ignorance. Young rural men also are the one's I see driving their rusty pick up with the Trump flags.

He has always done well with ignorant rural youth.

Yeah but 18 points (!)? Both states have their rural areas but Atlanta and the research triangle aren’t the size of Omer either.

Most youth aren't "Likely Voters". I suspect they can't get them to respond, thus you have AltasIntell type measuring.

And that’s one of the things that makes me question some of the poll results we are seeing. Something feels weird about many of them. Either they are overweighting the Trump supporters (not to be confused with the many who are overweight) or they are getting an inordinate number of Trump leaners to respond.

[TC Talks]

There is a persuasive tool called bandwagon. If Republican based polls can create the impression that Trump is leading, it can have an impact.

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October 1

Beemer States Today:
Michigan (Trump)
Wisconsin (Harris)
Pennsylvania (Trump)
North Carolina (Trump)
Georgia (Trump)
Arizona (Trump)
Nevada (Trump)

Remington Research
Michigan:
Harris 49
Trump 47

Michigan Senate:
Slotkin 50
Rogers 43

Wisconsin:
Trump 48
Harris 48

Pennsylvania:
Trump 48
Harris 47

Nevada:
Trump 49
Harris 48

Washington Post
North Carolina:
Trump 50
Harris 48

Emerson
North Carolina:
Trump 49
Harris 48

Pennsylvania:
Trump 48
Harris 48

Arizona:
Trump 50
Harris 47

Quinnipiac
North Carolina:
Trump 49
Harris 48

Georgia:
Trump 50
Harris 45

Insider Advantage
North Carolina:
Trump 50
Harris 49

Georgia:
Trump 48
Harris 48

Arizona:
Trump 49
Harris 48

Nevada:
Trump 49
Harris 48

Fabrizio / Anzalone
Pennsylvania:
Harris 50
Trump 47

Alaska Survey Research
Alaska:
Trump 52
Harris 43

USC
California:
Harris 58
Trump 36

PPP
Florida:
Trump 50
Harris 46

Texas:
Trump 51
Harris 46

Embold Research
Rhode Island:
Harris 52
Trump 38

New York Post
National:
Harris 51
Trump 47

Morning Consult
National:
Harris 51
Trump 46

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

September 30

Beemer Swing State Today:
North Carolina (Trump)

East Carolina University
North Carolina:
Trump 49
Harris 47

Beemer... this is currently an outlier. But it is a legit pollster. So lets see if we get a bunch more like this = a trend.

Three points is the margin of error for most polls which means the lions' share of polling means fuck all.

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September 30

Beemer Swing State Today:
North Carolina (Trump)

East Carolina University
North Carolina:
Trump 49
Harris 47

Beemer... this is currently an outlier. But it is a legit pollster. So lets see if we get a bunch more like this = a trend.

Three points is the margin of error for most polls which means the lions' share of polling means fuck all.

This is true…. But it does indicate if a race is sitting on a knifes edge or not.

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Odds and EV Predictions…

538:
Harris 55%
Trump 45%

PredictIt:
Harris 55
Trump 48

Virtual Tout:
Harris 302 EV’s
Trump 236 EV’s

Electoral-vote.com:
Harris 276 EV’s
Trump 262 EV’s

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

Silver vs Lichtman, who will be right? Getting worried with Predict It tightening up and the Sun Belt going south. At this point, I just want this whole thing done and over with.