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2018 Election Results Thread

The classic Political Potpourri forum is back by popular demand! ~SEPARATE REGISTRATION IS NO LONGER NEEDED; ALL REGISTERED BUZZBOARD USERS ARE WELCOME TO POST!~ Be forwarned -- this forum is NOT for the intellectually weak or those of you with thin skins. Don't come crying to me if you become the subject of ridicule. **Board Administrator reserves the right to revoke posting privileges based on my sole discretion**
bmw
Posts: 657
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 1:02 am

Re: 2018 Election Results Thread

Post by bmw » Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:31 pm

People are underestimating how big of a deal it was for republicans to gain seats in the Senate. This will have to big impacts:

-1 - it will be much easier for Trump to get conservatives onto the Supreme Court if any seats open up over the next 2 years.

-2 - With only 1/3 of the Senate up every 2 years, it will be extremely difficult for democrats to take back the Senate in 2020. There are likely only about 10 competitive seats going into 2020 - 5 held by each party. Dems would have to almost run the table to take back the Senate. Had they held Republicans to 51 or 52, their path to taking back the Senate in 2020 would have been at least viable.



User avatar
TC Talks
Posts: 1473
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2005 2:41 am

Re: 2018 Election Results Thread

Post by TC Talks » Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:22 pm

Any thoughts on how bad a position Republicans are in with the house and in state races? Lick your wounds but it still was an excellent night for Democrats.

The Senate win wasn't an earth shaking win.


(C) 2018 TC Talks. Assembled in U.S.A.

NS8401
Posts: 6174
Joined: Fri Mar 05, 2010 9:06 pm

Re: 2018 Election Results Thread

Post by NS8401 » Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:29 pm

TC Talks wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:22 pm
Any thoughts on how bad a position Republicans are in with the house and in state races? Lick your wounds but it still was an excellent night for Democrats.

The Senate win wasn't an earth shaking win.
It wasn’t even that surprising... it’ll take years for the Democrats to have the Senate...



Mike
Posts: 20
Joined: Sun Apr 10, 2011 11:00 pm

Re: 2018 Election Results Thread

Post by Mike » Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:20 am

NS8401 wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:11 pm
Of course here we just had proposal 2 so we will see how those districts shape up when they redraw them, which I think would happen in 2019.
Ah...no.

https://www.mlive.com/expo/news/erry-20 ... sal-2.html

"What happens next

Proposal 2 is set to become part of the Michigan Constitution 45 days after the election, or Dec. 14.

That said, the amendment will only be put to the test after the 2020 census is complete, at which point new lines will need to be drawn ahead of the 2022 elections.

According to Voters Not Politicians, the application process to serve on the commission will be open from Jan. 1-June 1 in 2020. Michigan residents interested in applying will be able to get the application online, but the Secretary of State's office will also be tasked with mailing out a number of applications to registered voters who qualify via a randomized process.

Voters Not Politicians' timeline states the final 13 commission members will be selected by Sept. 1 of that year, and that the commission would first convene in Oct. 2020. The commission would be tasked with adopting a final set of district maps by November 2021."


Having to deal with the gerrymandered districts one more time in 2020 may be frustrating, but all things considered the timeline only makes sense. It'd be a mad scramble to get everything all set up in time to re-draw them before the census that same year, and then having to turn around and re-draw again after it would be further maddening.



NS8401
Posts: 6174
Joined: Fri Mar 05, 2010 9:06 pm

Re: 2018 Election Results Thread

Post by NS8401 » Thu Nov 08, 2018 1:08 am

Mike wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:20 am
NS8401 wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:11 pm
Of course here we just had proposal 2 so we will see how those districts shape up when they redraw them, which I think would happen in 2019.
Ah...no.

https://www.mlive.com/expo/news/erry-20 ... sal-2.html

"What happens next

Proposal 2 is set to become part of the Michigan Constitution 45 days after the election, or Dec. 14.

That said, the amendment will only be put to the test after the 2020 census is complete, at which point new lines will need to be drawn ahead of the 2022 elections.

According to Voters Not Politicians, the application process to serve on the commission will be open from Jan. 1-June 1 in 2020. Michigan residents interested in applying will be able to get the application online, but the Secretary of State's office will also be tasked with mailing out a number of applications to registered voters who qualify via a randomized process.

Voters Not Politicians' timeline states the final 13 commission members will be selected by Sept. 1 of that year, and that the commission would first convene in Oct. 2020. The commission would be tasked with adopting a final set of district maps by November 2021."


Having to deal with the gerrymandered districts one more time in 2020 may be frustrating, but all things considered the timeline only makes sense. It'd be a mad scramble to get everything all set up in time to re-draw them before the census that same year, and then having to turn around and re-draw again after it would be further maddening.
Interesting... given Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and North Carolina’s redrawing of districts In rapid fashion I would have thought they’d be ready and raring to get this underway... once you draw them you really should only have to adjust for population moves every 10 years so an adjustment after 2 years should be fairly simple... you don’t exactly have to tear the map up every census...



Mike
Posts: 20
Joined: Sun Apr 10, 2011 11:00 pm

Re: 2018 Election Results Thread

Post by Mike » Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:04 am

NS8401 wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 1:08 am
Interesting... given Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and North Carolina’s redrawing of districts In rapid fashion I would have thought they’d be ready and raring to get this underway... once you draw them you really should only have to adjust for population moves every 10 years so an adjustment after 2 years should be fairly simple... you don’t exactly have to tear the map up every census...
Those all involved court cases though, not the case here.

And it looks like the results of those have been something of a wash so far...Pennsylvania's new map has stuck, North Carolina had an order come down at the end of August that was then rescinded due to being too close to Tuesday's elections, and Wisconsin had their case referred back to lower courts by SCOTUS.

On that note, you can now add Maryland to the pile. They've been ordered to re-draw two House districts before the 2020 election: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/ ... ing-973245



ftballfan
Posts: 514
Joined: Thu Sep 17, 2009 6:38 pm

Re: 2018 Election Results Thread

Post by ftballfan » Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:02 pm

Mike wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:20 am
NS8401 wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:11 pm
Of course here we just had proposal 2 so we will see how those districts shape up when they redraw them, which I think would happen in 2019.
Ah...no.

https://www.mlive.com/expo/news/erry-20 ... sal-2.html

"What happens next

Proposal 2 is set to become part of the Michigan Constitution 45 days after the election, or Dec. 14.

That said, the amendment will only be put to the test after the 2020 census is complete, at which point new lines will need to be drawn ahead of the 2022 elections.

According to Voters Not Politicians, the application process to serve on the commission will be open from Jan. 1-June 1 in 2020. Michigan residents interested in applying will be able to get the application online, but the Secretary of State's office will also be tasked with mailing out a number of applications to registered voters who qualify via a randomized process.

Voters Not Politicians' timeline states the final 13 commission members will be selected by Sept. 1 of that year, and that the commission would first convene in Oct. 2020. The commission would be tasked with adopting a final set of district maps by November 2021."


Having to deal with the gerrymandered districts one more time in 2020 may be frustrating, but all things considered the timeline only makes sense. It'd be a mad scramble to get everything all set up in time to re-draw them before the census that same year, and then having to turn around and re-draw again after it would be further maddening.
It will be very interesting to see how the districts change, especially considering MI will probably lose one US House seat.



NS8401
Posts: 6174
Joined: Fri Mar 05, 2010 9:06 pm

Re: 2018 Election Results Thread

Post by NS8401 » Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:11 pm

ftballfan wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:02 pm
Mike wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:20 am
NS8401 wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:11 pm
Of course here we just had proposal 2 so we will see how those districts shape up when they redraw them, which I think would happen in 2019.
Ah...no.

https://www.mlive.com/expo/news/erry-20 ... sal-2.html

"What happens next

Proposal 2 is set to become part of the Michigan Constitution 45 days after the election, or Dec. 14.

That said, the amendment will only be put to the test after the 2020 census is complete, at which point new lines will need to be drawn ahead of the 2022 elections.

According to Voters Not Politicians, the application process to serve on the commission will be open from Jan. 1-June 1 in 2020. Michigan residents interested in applying will be able to get the application online, but the Secretary of State's office will also be tasked with mailing out a number of applications to registered voters who qualify via a randomized process.

Voters Not Politicians' timeline states the final 13 commission members will be selected by Sept. 1 of that year, and that the commission would first convene in Oct. 2020. The commission would be tasked with adopting a final set of district maps by November 2021."


Having to deal with the gerrymandered districts one more time in 2020 may be frustrating, but all things considered the timeline only makes sense. It'd be a mad scramble to get everything all set up in time to re-draw them before the census that same year, and then having to turn around and re-draw again after it would be further maddening.
It will be very interesting to see how the districts change, especially considering MI will probably lose one US House seat.
It will end up a bluer delegation and possibly majority blue. I wouldn’t be surprised if Democrats have both the state House and senate after 2020 as well considering the GOP margins are a mere 6 right now...



Matt
Posts: 1192
Joined: Mon Dec 06, 2004 12:18 pm
Location: Ann Arbor

Re: 2018 Election Results Thread

Post by Matt » Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:44 pm

NS8401 wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:11 pm
ftballfan wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:02 pm
Mike wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:20 am
NS8401 wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:11 pm
Of course here we just had proposal 2 so we will see how those districts shape up when they redraw them, which I think would happen in 2019.
Ah...no.

https://www.mlive.com/expo/news/erry-20 ... sal-2.html

"What happens next

Proposal 2 is set to become part of the Michigan Constitution 45 days after the election, or Dec. 14.

That said, the amendment will only be put to the test after the 2020 census is complete, at which point new lines will need to be drawn ahead of the 2022 elections.

According to Voters Not Politicians, the application process to serve on the commission will be open from Jan. 1-June 1 in 2020. Michigan residents interested in applying will be able to get the application online, but the Secretary of State's office will also be tasked with mailing out a number of applications to registered voters who qualify via a randomized process.

Voters Not Politicians' timeline states the final 13 commission members will be selected by Sept. 1 of that year, and that the commission would first convene in Oct. 2020. The commission would be tasked with adopting a final set of district maps by November 2021."


Having to deal with the gerrymandered districts one more time in 2020 may be frustrating, but all things considered the timeline only makes sense. It'd be a mad scramble to get everything all set up in time to re-draw them before the census that same year, and then having to turn around and re-draw again after it would be further maddening.
It will be very interesting to see how the districts change, especially considering MI will probably lose one US House seat.
It will end up a bluer delegation and possibly majority blue. I wouldn’t be surprised if Democrats have both the state House and senate after 2020 as well considering the GOP margins are a mere 6 right now...
I'll bet you a billion dollars the democrats won't have the state senate in 2020. Will you take that bet?



NS8401
Posts: 6174
Joined: Fri Mar 05, 2010 9:06 pm

Re: 2018 Election Results Thread

Post by NS8401 » Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:57 pm

Matt wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:44 pm
NS8401 wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:11 pm
ftballfan wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:02 pm
Mike wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:20 am
NS8401 wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:11 pm
Of course here we just had proposal 2 so we will see how those districts shape up when they redraw them, which I think would happen in 2019.
Ah...no.

https://www.mlive.com/expo/news/erry-20 ... sal-2.html

"What happens next

Proposal 2 is set to become part of the Michigan Constitution 45 days after the election, or Dec. 14.

That said, the amendment will only be put to the test after the 2020 census is complete, at which point new lines will need to be drawn ahead of the 2022 elections.

According to Voters Not Politicians, the application process to serve on the commission will be open from Jan. 1-June 1 in 2020. Michigan residents interested in applying will be able to get the application online, but the Secretary of State's office will also be tasked with mailing out a number of applications to registered voters who qualify via a randomized process.

Voters Not Politicians' timeline states the final 13 commission members will be selected by Sept. 1 of that year, and that the commission would first convene in Oct. 2020. The commission would be tasked with adopting a final set of district maps by November 2021."


Having to deal with the gerrymandered districts one more time in 2020 may be frustrating, but all things considered the timeline only makes sense. It'd be a mad scramble to get everything all set up in time to re-draw them before the census that same year, and then having to turn around and re-draw again after it would be further maddening.
It will be very interesting to see how the districts change, especially considering MI will probably lose one US House seat.
It will end up a bluer delegation and possibly majority blue. I wouldn’t be surprised if Democrats have both the state House and senate after 2020 as well considering the GOP margins are a mere 6 right now...
I'll bet you a billion dollars the democrats won't have the state senate in 2020. Will you take that bet?
Given the blue trend... yes I will. Whenever new districts are drawn at the state level it will be harder for the GOP to have a majority by default as long as a Democrat is governor.



Matt
Posts: 1192
Joined: Mon Dec 06, 2004 12:18 pm
Location: Ann Arbor

Re: 2018 Election Results Thread

Post by Matt » Thu Nov 08, 2018 5:21 pm

NS8401 wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:57 pm
Matt wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:44 pm
NS8401 wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:11 pm
ftballfan wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:02 pm
Mike wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:20 am
NS8401 wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:11 pm
Of course here we just had proposal 2 so we will see how those districts shape up when they redraw them, which I think would happen in 2019.
Ah...no.

https://www.mlive.com/expo/news/erry-20 ... sal-2.html

"What happens next

Proposal 2 is set to become part of the Michigan Constitution 45 days after the election, or Dec. 14.

That said, the amendment will only be put to the test after the 2020 census is complete, at which point new lines will need to be drawn ahead of the 2022 elections.

According to Voters Not Politicians, the application process to serve on the commission will be open from Jan. 1-June 1 in 2020. Michigan residents interested in applying will be able to get the application online, but the Secretary of State's office will also be tasked with mailing out a number of applications to registered voters who qualify via a randomized process.

Voters Not Politicians' timeline states the final 13 commission members will be selected by Sept. 1 of that year, and that the commission would first convene in Oct. 2020. The commission would be tasked with adopting a final set of district maps by November 2021."


Having to deal with the gerrymandered districts one more time in 2020 may be frustrating, but all things considered the timeline only makes sense. It'd be a mad scramble to get everything all set up in time to re-draw them before the census that same year, and then having to turn around and re-draw again after it would be further maddening.
It will be very interesting to see how the districts change, especially considering MI will probably lose one US House seat.
It will end up a bluer delegation and possibly majority blue. I wouldn’t be surprised if Democrats have both the state House and senate after 2020 as well considering the GOP margins are a mere 6 right now...
I'll bet you a billion dollars the democrats won't have the state senate in 2020. Will you take that bet?
Given the blue trend... yes I will. Whenever new districts are drawn at the state level it will be harder for the GOP to have a majority by default as long as a Democrat is governor.
Should we set up monthly payments since you already lost?



NS8401
Posts: 6174
Joined: Fri Mar 05, 2010 9:06 pm

Re: 2018 Election Results Thread

Post by NS8401 » Thu Nov 08, 2018 5:47 pm

Matt wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 5:21 pm
NS8401 wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:57 pm
Matt wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:44 pm
NS8401 wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:11 pm
ftballfan wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:02 pm
Mike wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:20 am
NS8401 wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:11 pm
Of course here we just had proposal 2 so we will see how those districts shape up when they redraw them, which I think would happen in 2019.
Ah...no.

https://www.mlive.com/expo/news/erry-20 ... sal-2.html

"What happens next

Proposal 2 is set to become part of the Michigan Constitution 45 days after the election, or Dec. 14.

That said, the amendment will only be put to the test after the 2020 census is complete, at which point new lines will need to be drawn ahead of the 2022 elections.

According to Voters Not Politicians, the application process to serve on the commission will be open from Jan. 1-June 1 in 2020. Michigan residents interested in applying will be able to get the application online, but the Secretary of State's office will also be tasked with mailing out a number of applications to registered voters who qualify via a randomized process.

Voters Not Politicians' timeline states the final 13 commission members will be selected by Sept. 1 of that year, and that the commission would first convene in Oct. 2020. The commission would be tasked with adopting a final set of district maps by November 2021."


Having to deal with the gerrymandered districts one more time in 2020 may be frustrating, but all things considered the timeline only makes sense. It'd be a mad scramble to get everything all set up in time to re-draw them before the census that same year, and then having to turn around and re-draw again after it would be further maddening.
It will be very interesting to see how the districts change, especially considering MI will probably lose one US House seat.
It will end up a bluer delegation and possibly majority blue. I wouldn’t be surprised if Democrats have both the state House and senate after 2020 as well considering the GOP margins are a mere 6 right now...
I'll bet you a billion dollars the democrats won't have the state senate in 2020. Will you take that bet?
Given the blue trend... yes I will. Whenever new districts are drawn at the state level it will be harder for the GOP to have a majority by default as long as a Democrat is governor.
Should we set up monthly payments since you already lost?
How? Gerrymandering is harder for even the current bare majority state house as long as Whitmer is there. Any kind of goofed up map they try to draw is subject to veto if Whitmer doesn't like it. That is precisely why the election Tuesday was so important around here. And that is the case even if the Proposal 2 created commission doesn't already draw fair districts for state legislators as well as federal ones. The GOP has padded its lead as it were through heavy gerrymandering. That you are down to a pair of 6 seat majorities from a pair of 17's despite this gerrymandering should scare the living daylights out of you.



Matt
Posts: 1192
Joined: Mon Dec 06, 2004 12:18 pm
Location: Ann Arbor

Re: 2018 Election Results Thread

Post by Matt » Thu Nov 08, 2018 5:51 pm

Have you seen Tommy Boy?



NS8401
Posts: 6174
Joined: Fri Mar 05, 2010 9:06 pm

Re: 2018 Election Results Thread

Post by NS8401 » Thu Nov 08, 2018 6:13 pm

Matt wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 5:51 pm
Have you seen Tommy Boy?
No and nor do I care.



Matt
Posts: 1192
Joined: Mon Dec 06, 2004 12:18 pm
Location: Ann Arbor

Re: 2018 Election Results Thread

Post by Matt » Thu Nov 08, 2018 6:36 pm

NS8401 wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 6:13 pm
Matt wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 5:51 pm
Have you seen Tommy Boy?
No and nor do I care.
https://youtu.be/TgvyparsP0c



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