I'm going to defend the Chargers' time out
Posted: Tue Jan 11, 2022 12:17 pm
After going back and re-watching the last few minutes of the game, I have concluded that the timeout was the correct call. Let me explain.
First, a screenshot of the exact moment in time when it was called:
So let's look at the situation. 3rd and 4, just outside of field goal range. The play clock is down to 5 seconds, and the game clock is now just under 40 seconds. Raiders are lined up and ready to run a play. Defense isn't quite set. Raiders are certainly going to run a play here. By calling the timeout, you give them time to re-think the decision to run a play. Because that 39-second mark timing of the timeout was intentional. After the time out, Raiders can take 1 knee and the game is over. You also, by calling that time out, force them to think about what happens if they run a play and don't convert. Anywhere between 4th and 1 and 4th and 4 is super long field goal range, and Chargers probably call their last timeout if the clock is running. Now you have 32 seconds left and you're in no-man's land. There's no way they would attempt a field goal at that range. They may punt or they make take a knee, and in either scenario, you're moving on to the playoffs.
Now, LA got unlucky in that the Raiders decided to go for it any way and then converted, but at that exact moment in time, I believe the time out was the correct call. If anything, I would argue that LA made 2 wrong calls - both by going for it and then by attempting the field goal. They made them both so it is moot, but I don't believe the analytics supported either move.
First, a screenshot of the exact moment in time when it was called:
So let's look at the situation. 3rd and 4, just outside of field goal range. The play clock is down to 5 seconds, and the game clock is now just under 40 seconds. Raiders are lined up and ready to run a play. Defense isn't quite set. Raiders are certainly going to run a play here. By calling the timeout, you give them time to re-think the decision to run a play. Because that 39-second mark timing of the timeout was intentional. After the time out, Raiders can take 1 knee and the game is over. You also, by calling that time out, force them to think about what happens if they run a play and don't convert. Anywhere between 4th and 1 and 4th and 4 is super long field goal range, and Chargers probably call their last timeout if the clock is running. Now you have 32 seconds left and you're in no-man's land. There's no way they would attempt a field goal at that range. They may punt or they make take a knee, and in either scenario, you're moving on to the playoffs.
Now, LA got unlucky in that the Raiders decided to go for it any way and then converted, but at that exact moment in time, I believe the time out was the correct call. If anything, I would argue that LA made 2 wrong calls - both by going for it and then by attempting the field goal. They made them both so it is moot, but I don't believe the analytics supported either move.