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I'm going to defend the Chargers' time out

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bmw
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I'm going to defend the Chargers' time out

Post by bmw » Tue Jan 11, 2022 12:17 pm

After going back and re-watching the last few minutes of the game, I have concluded that the timeout was the correct call. Let me explain.

First, a screenshot of the exact moment in time when it was called:

Image

So let's look at the situation. 3rd and 4, just outside of field goal range. The play clock is down to 5 seconds, and the game clock is now just under 40 seconds. Raiders are lined up and ready to run a play. Defense isn't quite set. Raiders are certainly going to run a play here. By calling the timeout, you give them time to re-think the decision to run a play. Because that 39-second mark timing of the timeout was intentional. After the time out, Raiders can take 1 knee and the game is over. You also, by calling that time out, force them to think about what happens if they run a play and don't convert. Anywhere between 4th and 1 and 4th and 4 is super long field goal range, and Chargers probably call their last timeout if the clock is running. Now you have 32 seconds left and you're in no-man's land. There's no way they would attempt a field goal at that range. They may punt or they make take a knee, and in either scenario, you're moving on to the playoffs.

Now, LA got unlucky in that the Raiders decided to go for it any way and then converted, but at that exact moment in time, I believe the time out was the correct call. If anything, I would argue that LA made 2 wrong calls - both by going for it and then by attempting the field goal. They made them both so it is moot, but I don't believe the analytics supported either move.



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FakeAndyStuart
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Re: I'm going to defend the Chargers' time out

Post by FakeAndyStuart » Tue Jan 11, 2022 4:27 pm

A non-political discussion. Lovely.

I don't know enough about football to say the LA defense wasn't set. Raiders were six plays into the drive, having reasonable (but not great success) running the ball and stellar success passing. Raiders didn't need to run a play to kick a FG - Carlson had been lights out 40+ yards (18-20 for the season) so if LA were not able to stop them, they needed time to get back down the field to match the FG.

I think that time out might have been the LA coach saying, in NFL code - "Hey guys, we're all tired why don't we end it here, save our bodies for next week and end it here? We won't have to play each other next week, I'm good with the Bills or Bengals or Chiefs or whatever... whadda ya think?'

And LV's response - "Bad call the week after John Madden dies.. Just win, baby."

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MWmetalhead
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Re: I'm going to defend the Chargers' time out

Post by MWmetalhead » Tue Jan 11, 2022 4:43 pm

My view on this matter has evolved; the larger error by the Chargers' staff was personnel. Only one linebacker was put out there after the timeout.

This Sporting News article explains the situation nicely:

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/new ... vlwnjdy29u


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FakeAndyStuart
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Re: I'm going to defend the Chargers' time out

Post by FakeAndyStuart » Tue Jan 11, 2022 4:52 pm

Great article MW, thanks. I think the mistake was the field goal in OT. They had converted 3 fourth downs (4th and 10) in their last drive and another one in OT (4th and 9) on their own 26. Why from the LV 23 on 4th and 6 they didn't go for it? Use more time... Staley took the "safe" way there, and that I think led to their defeat.



bmw
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Re: I'm going to defend the Chargers' time out

Post by bmw » Tue Jan 11, 2022 4:55 pm

FakeAndyStuart wrote:
Tue Jan 11, 2022 4:27 pm
Raiders didn't need to run a play to kick a FG - Carlson had been lights out 40+ yards (18-20 for the season) so if LA were not able to stop them, they needed time to get back down the field to match the FG.
But the timeout forced the issue. They still had one left even after the one they called.. IF the Raiders don't convert that 3rd and 4, the Chargers can call their last timeout with roughly 33 seconds left on the game clock. Raiders are then in a real tough spot as they're looking at a 54 to 58 yard field goal attempt and 4th down. At that point they can't take a knee because it is an immediate turnover on downs. And they can't risk missing a long field goal and giving the Chargers even better field position than if they take a knee (probably close to the 45 yard line). I think they would have had to punt the ball due to the risk of giving the Chargers the ball with a half minute left at fairly close to mid-field.

Translation: Raiders are willing to risk a long field goal if it is the last play of the game. Perhaps not so much if there's a half minute left. And had the Chargers not called any timeouts, the Raiders could have controlled the clock easily down to the last play. At the end of the day, the Chargers simply were unable to stop them on 3rd and 4. Had they stopped them and my scenario played out, that timeout looks genius.



Mega Hertz
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Re: I'm going to defend the Chargers' time out

Post by Mega Hertz » Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:34 pm

I see bmw's point. Someone peaking into Dan Campbell's playbook 😂


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Honeyman
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Re: I'm going to defend the Chargers' time out

Post by Honeyman » Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:43 pm

If you've watched the Chargers all year, you would know that Staley is an awful game management coach. Multiple times foregoing sure field goals to try, and usually fail, on fourth downs. He went for it FROM HIS OWN 18 in this game, failed, and it led the Raiders to an easy fg. Think that made a difference?

This team was leading the AFC West after 5 or 6 games, shit the bed, and didn't make the playoffs, despite having the best QB in the game outside of GB or KC. Staley is a fucking dope


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