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Baseball Reference's Take on the 2021 Tigers
Posted: Mon Mar 29, 2021 7:15 pm
by Bobbert
The baseballreference.com website always projects player performance before each season begins. Now that the Tigers' Opening Day roster is set, I applied what BR projected for each Tiger and came up with:
65-97 record
726 runs, 179 home runs, 701 RBIs
I would add five wins to the season, based on A.J. Hinch's hiring. I'm sure there are lots of other ways to look at the numbers.
Here are the numbers (hope they are not too hard to read). I used the Tigers' 2019 at bats to project the hitting (5549). Baddoo has no major league experience, so there was no BR projection.
Pitcher Wins Losses
Matthew Boyd 8 12
Julio Teheran 6 8
Jose Urena 4 8
Tarik Skubal 5 7
Casey Mize 5 7
Bryan Garcia 3 3
Buck Farmer 4 4
Jose Cisnero 4 5
Michael Fulmer 4 7
Gregory Soto 2 4
Daniel Norris 4 7
Derek Holland 4 6
Tyler Alexander 4 6
57 84
65 97
Hitter AB R HR RBI
Wilson Ramos 416 46 14 62
Grayson Greiner 265 32 8 33
Miguel Cabrera 501 56 16 69
Jonathan Schoop 447 63 21 61
Willi Castro 359 52 13 53
Jeimer Candelario 452 62 15 54
Niko Goodrum 435 57 15 53
Harold Castro 286 32 6 33
Robbie Grossman 439 59 11 51
JaCoby Jones 340 48 12 36
Nomar Mazara 405 57 15 60
Victor Reyes 480 67 10 45
Akil Baddoo
4825 631 156 610
5549 726 179 701
Re: Baseball Reference's Take on the 2021 Tigers
Posted: Mon Mar 29, 2021 8:25 pm
by Rate This
Bobbert wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 7:15 pm
The baseballreference.com website always projects player performance before each season begins. Now that the Tigers' Opening Day roster is set, I applied what BR projected for each Tiger and came up with:
65-97 record
726 runs, 179 home runs, 701 RBIs
I would add five wins to the season, based on A.J. Hinch's hiring. I'm sure there are lots of other ways to look at the numbers.
Here are the numbers (hope they are not too hard to read). I used the Tigers' 2019 at bats to project the hitting (5549). Baddoo has no major league experience, so there was no BR projection.
Pitcher Wins Losses
Matthew Boyd 8 12
Julio Teheran 6 8
Jose Urena 4 8
Tarik Skubal 5 7
Casey Mize 5 7
Bryan Garcia 3 3
Buck Farmer 4 4
Jose Cisnero 4 5
Michael Fulmer 4 7
Gregory Soto 2 4
Daniel Norris 4 7
Derek Holland 4 6
Tyler Alexander 4 6
57 84
65 97
Hitter AB R HR RBI
Wilson Ramos 416 46 14 62
Grayson Greiner 265 32 8 33
Miguel Cabrera 501 56 16 69
Jonathan Schoop 447 63 21 61
Willi Castro 359 52 13 53
Jeimer Candelario 452 62 15 54
Niko Goodrum 435 57 15 53
Harold Castro 286 32 6 33
Robbie Grossman 439 59 11 51
JaCoby Jones 340 48 12 36
Nomar Mazara 405 57 15 60
Victor Reyes 480 67 10 45
Akil Baddoo
4825 631 156 610
5549 726 179 701
So you’re betting around 69-92?
Re: Baseball Reference's Take on the 2021 Tigers
Posted: Mon Mar 29, 2021 9:52 pm
by Matt
Re: Baseball Reference's Take on the 2021 Tigers
Posted: Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:31 am
by moldyoldie
It would be more telling to see the projections of the Tigers heading into the 2006 season, for example, when they caught "lightning in a bottle".
Re: Baseball Reference's Take on the 2021 Tigers
Posted: Tue Mar 30, 2021 1:34 pm
by MotorCityRadioFreak
Hinch is an excellent manager, and I think people will be surprised that the Tigers will finish around .500. Cabrera will hit 20 HR's plus. Fulmer is coming out of the pen, so I doubt he gets 11 decisions. Don't sleep on Teheran and Mize. I believe both finish with more wins than losses.
Re: Baseball Reference's Take on the 2021 Tigers
Posted: Tue Mar 30, 2021 3:24 pm
by Bobbert
Rate This wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 8:25 pm
Bobbert wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 7:15 pm
The baseballreference.com website always projects player performance before each season begins. Now that the Tigers' Opening Day roster is set, I applied what BR projected for each Tiger and came up with:
65-97 record
726 runs, 179 home runs, 701 RBIs
I would add five wins to the season, based on A.J. Hinch's hiring. I'm sure there are lots of other ways to look at the numbers.
Here are the numbers (hope they are not too hard to read). I used the Tigers' 2019 at bats to project the hitting (5549). Baddoo has no major league experience, so there was no BR projection.
Pitcher Wins Losses
Matthew Boyd 8 12
Julio Teheran 6 8
Jose Urena 4 8
Tarik Skubal 5 7
Casey Mize 5 7
Bryan Garcia 3 3
Buck Farmer 4 4
Jose Cisnero 4 5
Michael Fulmer 4 7
Gregory Soto 2 4
Daniel Norris 4 7
Derek Holland 4 6
Tyler Alexander 4 6
57 84
65 97
Hitter AB R HR RBI
Wilson Ramos 416 46 14 62
Grayson Greiner 265 32 8 33
Miguel Cabrera 501 56 16 69
Jonathan Schoop 447 63 21 61
Willi Castro 359 52 13 53
Jeimer Candelario 452 62 15 54
Niko Goodrum 435 57 15 53
Harold Castro 286 32 6 33
Robbie Grossman 439 59 11 51
JaCoby Jones 340 48 12 36
Nomar Mazara 405 57 15 60
Victor Reyes 480 67 10 45
Akil Baddoo
4825 631 156 610
5549 726 179 701
So you’re betting around 69-92?
Yeah, about 70 wins, which is a reasonable improvement on the 47 wins in 2019 and the 64-win pace in the shortened 2020 season. If several of their young pitchers can establish themselves, it will be a successful year.
Re: Baseball Reference's Take on the 2021 Tigers
Posted: Tue Mar 30, 2021 3:41 pm
by Bobbert
moldyoldie wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:31 am
It would be more telling to see the projections of the Tigers heading into the 2006 season, for example, when they caught "lightning in a bottle".
That's an interesting analogy. That 2006 team had a better crew of veterans—Rodriguez, Ordonez, Rogers. The 2005 team looked like it was laying the foundation for something better with a .500 record in late July. Then it collapsed to 71-91, which cost Trammell his job.
I checked Newspapers.com to see what the Free Press sportswriters predicted for 2006:
Mitch Albom: 79-83
John Lowe: 82-80
John Paul Morosi: 84-78
Michael Rosenberg: 79-83
Drew Sharp: 77-85
Morosi was the only one who said they'd contend for the division, writing, "This team was on the fringe of the wild-card race as recently as July. Imagine what it could do if Pudge, Magglio and Guillen remain healthy. And at this time last year, Jason Johnson and Wil Ledezma were in the rotation, Instead of Kenny Rogers and Justin Verlander. So, yes, this is a better club - though it may not show in baseball's toughest division."
Re: Baseball Reference's Take on the 2021 Tigers
Posted: Tue Mar 30, 2021 7:43 pm
by MasterB
I hope the Tigers have a good season but I think it isn't going to be a good season for them just my opinion. I hope I eat crow on that they have a good season.
Re: Baseball Reference's Take on the 2021 Tigers
Posted: Tue Mar 30, 2021 8:57 pm
by originalzzmfmjock
Anything close to sniffing the .500 mark, say 76-86 or better will be a good season for this years team. Actually anything north of 70 for this team would be a big improvement.
Re: Baseball Reference's Take on the 2021 Tigers
Posted: Wed Mar 31, 2021 12:41 am
by moldyoldie
Bobbert wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 3:41 pm
moldyoldie wrote: ↑Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:31 am
It would be more telling to see the projections of the Tigers heading into the 2006 season, for example, when they caught "lightning in a bottle".
I checked Newspapers.com to see what the Free Press sportswriters predicted for 2006:
Mitch Albom: 79-83
John Lowe: 82-80
John Paul Morosi: 84-78
Michael Rosenberg: 79-83
Drew Sharp: 77-85
Morosi was the only one who said they'd contend for the division, writing, "This team was on the fringe of the wild-card race as recently as July. Imagine what it could do if Pudge, Magglio and Guillen remain healthy. And at this time last year, Jason Johnson and Wil Ledezma were in the rotation, Instead of Kenny Rogers and Justin Verlander. So, yes, this is a better club - though it may not show in baseball's toughest division."
Thanks for looking that up. A healthy veteran team and the likes of young Verlander and Zumaya asserting themselves certainly made a difference. How they could so discombobulate in the World Series was baffling. The entire national press was picking them to win it all as a "team of destiny", that's when I knew they were in trouble.
Re: Baseball Reference's Take on the 2021 Tigers
Posted: Thu Apr 01, 2021 4:36 pm
by MWmetalhead
Snow today was the first sign hell froze over.
The second sign? A Tigers win over the Indians.
Re: Baseball Reference's Take on the 2021 Tigers
Posted: Thu Apr 01, 2021 4:40 pm
by Honeyman
MWmetalhead wrote: ↑Thu Apr 01, 2021 4:36 pm
Snow today was the first sign hell froze over.
The second sign? A Tigers win over the Indians.
WIRE-TO-WIRE!!! Just like 1984!!!
Re: Baseball Reference's Take on the 2021 Tigers
Posted: Thu Apr 01, 2021 8:37 pm
by MotorCityRadioFreak
This team won't contend, but they have a smart manager not named Jim Leyland for the first time since the late 80s. If they could score runs, they would be dangerous. The starters are much better than people think. The back end of the pen does suck though.
Re: Baseball Reference's Take on the 2021 Tigers
Posted: Sat Apr 03, 2021 8:27 am
by MWmetalhead
My prediction: 73 wins.
Even at 20 percent capacity, CoPa can't sell out! Just heard on WWJ tix are still available for today and tomorrow.
Re: Baseball Reference's Take on the 2021 Tigers
Posted: Thu Jul 01, 2021 6:13 pm
by Bobbert
Bobbert wrote: ↑Mon Mar 29, 2021 7:15 pm
The baseballreference.com website always projects player performance before each season begins. Now that the Tigers' Opening Day roster is set, I applied what BR projected for each Tiger and came up with:
65-97 record
726 runs, 179 home runs, 701 RBIs
I would add five wins to the season, based on A.J. Hinch's hiring. I'm sure there are lots of other ways to look at the numbers.
Here are the numbers (hope they are not too hard to read). I used the Tigers' 2019 at bats to project the hitting (5549). Baddoo has no major league experience, so there was no BR projection.
Pitcher Wins Losses
Matthew Boyd 8 12 >> 6-12
Julio Teheran 6 8 >> 2-0
Jose Urena 4 8 >> 4-16
Tarik Skubal 5 7 >> 8-14
Casey Mize 5 7 >> 10-8
Bryan Garcia 3 3 >> 2-2
Buck Farmer 4 4 >> 0-0
Jose Cisnero 4 5 >> 2-8
Michael Fulmer 4 7 >> 8-8
Gregory Soto 2 4 >> 8-2
Daniel Norris 4 7 >> 0-4
Derek Holland 4 6 >> 1-1
Tyler Alexander 4 6 >> 0-1
57 84
65 97
Hitter AB R HR RBI
Wilson Ramos 416 46 14 62 >> (released)
Grayson Greiner 265 32 8 33 >> 76/2/2/10
Miguel Cabrera 501 56 16 69 >> 442/48/14/62
Jonathan Schoop 447 63 21 61 >> 592/76/30/90
Willi Castro 359 52 13 53 >> 458/64/12/54
Jeimer Candelario 452 62 15 54 >> 536/60/8/42
Niko Goodrum 435 57 15 53 >> 388/54/10/34
Harold Castro 286 32 6 33 >> 282/28/2/34
Robbie Grossman 439 59 11 51 >> 570/80/20/72
JaCoby Jones 340 48 12 36 >> (released)
Nomar Mazara 405 57 15 60 >> 298/22/6/32
Victor Reyes 480 67 10 45 >> 166/18/2/8
Akil Baddoo N/A >> 344/48/10/46
4825 631 156 610
5549 726 179 701
At the halfway point, the Tigers are doing better than projected by Baseball Reference (and many other people). They're on pace to finish 72-90. They're hitting home runs at near the expected rate, but are much lower in runs and RBIs (648/172/626).
(Here are the stats I used:
https://www.espn.com/mlb/team/stats/_/name/det)
See the above quote for comparisons of the BR projections to the actual performance. Spencer Turnbull (who projects to an 8-4 record) was not on the Opening Day roster that I used for the original projections.
Overall, I think 72 wins seems reasonable. It's tempting to predict more, based on their play after April, but the limited innings of the young pitchers will probably hurt them.
I think it's evident that Hinch is getting a lot out of the roster, from top to bottom. I'd expect a solid 85 win team in 2022, with championship expectations in 2023, after Greene, Torkelson, and some above average free agents are added to the team.
