Sanders should win by double digits. Probably 11-13 points. The bigger story on the Republican side will not be Trump's margin of victory, but whether Bush and Cruz both finish ahead of Rubio, and even more important, if Rubio can even hold on to his 10 percent. It would be a disaster for Rubio if h...

I was not aware of the 10 percent threshold rule - it is not something the media has been talking about. That is particularly interesting since several candidates could finish just over or just under 10 percent. EDIT - I guess I should have read everything in this thread :!: My delegate prediction l...

Democrat Predictions: Bernie Sanders - 55% Hillary Clinton - 44% Republican Predictions: Polls are all over the place for 2nd through 5th place. The only consistency is that Trump has a fairly large lead. It really is a crap shoot between Kasich, Rubio, Cruz, and Bush for 2nd place. I think Kasich ...

I'm suggesting that the results should be analyzed for what they are, not for how they compare to the numerous polls leading up to the actual vote.

The media is making a big mistake if they treat Trump as if he's finished.

Trump still had a very good night at 24%. Not the upper 20's folks were expecting, but still great results in a rural, old-fashioned state for a billionaire from Manhattan who's been wishy-washy on social issues over the years. This is how polling is hurting the political process. Now your performa...

Trump led each of the last 13 consecutive polls taken, including post-debate polls, but still not only lost but lost by a fairly substantial margin.

Maybe Trump's supporters aren't motivated enough to actually get out and vote?

Huckabee and O'Malley are dropping out.

The Trump speech coming up should be interesting.

Cruz is doing quite a bit better than I expected. Looks like if anything hurt Trump it was his lack of a ground game.

Rubio doing slightly better than expected, though I'm not surprised since he's been surging as of late.

Here's my predictions (as of 8:30)

Trump 26
Cruz 23
Rubio 19
Carson 8
Paul 6
Bush 5
Huckabee 4
Kasich 3
Fiorina 2
Christie 2
Santorum 1

I have no problem with putting the public information on it, but using the word "violation" in big red letters on both the envelope and on the document inside? That word is used to imply that people receiving the mailer are violating the law by not voting. While I agree that most people should recog...

What a lousy answer and non-follow up :barf Cruz is such a slimeball... And it was a legitimate question. I'm no fan of Obamacare but the reality is there are millions now who depend on it and whoever the republican candidate is better have an answer for that question in the main debates. I used to...

Cruz stumbled twice in recent days, one of which at an event where he failed to have sympathy or compassion for a guy whose brother was saved from cancer thanks to coverage he got from Obamacare looked incredibly bad... He also completely dodged a question during the debate from I believe it was Br...

Some interesting drop-out predictions (via CNN's Political Predictions Market) Odds candidate will suspend his/her campaign before the New Hampshire primary: 1 percent - Bush, Rubio, Cruz, Christie, Trump 2 percent - Kasich 82 percent - Fiorina 84 percent - Rand Paul 89 percent - Carson 99 percent -...

NS8401 wrote:Trump has a 35-40% ceiling among Republicans...

Where are you coming up with those numbers? A very recent ABC News poll suggests otherwise:

I don't see anybody else beating him. Avoiding the debate last night ended up being yet another unorthodox, yet savvy political move. Most headlines are reading that Rubio and Cruz had mediocre performances at best last night. Trump continues to hold on to a 3 to 7 point lead in Iowa, I don't see th...