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Election day Predictions

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Deleted User 8570

Re: Election day Predictions

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:52 pm

Bryce wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:29 pm
Not sure how much to read into this, but:

My poling place had two precincts. One encompasses many of the apartment complexes in the area an leans heavily Democrat. The other leans heavily Republican. There were long lines for the Democrat precinct and no wait whatsoever to cast a ballot in the other.

Might not be a good sign for the Republicans this election.
Anecdotal evidence and polling as well as early voting results had young people possibly showing up at a 40% clip which is double their usual and would be the most in decades... Early voting was up about 8 million from 2014 and ended up at 36 million which is about halfway between 2014 and 2016's early totals.

Went to vote and all 3 precincts are in one fire station. At my precinct I was in the mid 400's at about 1pm.

My final prediction is
Governor: Whitmer
Senator: Stabenow
AG: Coin Flip but I voted for Nessel
SOS: Benson
Both Stevens and Slotkin win
Dems win in Arizona, Nevada, West Virginia, Indiana, Florida and Montana
Not gonna even try to forecast Missouri
GOP gets North Dakota and Texas
Tennessee has been waffling back and forth in the polls all week but Blackburn would be the favorite still

Senate: 51-49 or 52-48 GOP
House: 230-205 Democrats

Arizona, Indiana, Florida and Missouri are unlikely to be called quickly.

Scott Walker is swept out to sea in Wisconsin, Bruce Rauner loses in Illinois, Abrams narrowly loses in Georgia, Cordray wins in Ohio and Gillum wins in Florida. Nevada also elects a Democrat for Governor.

Thats about all the major ones I can think of.

The polls are modeled after the 2014 midterms by the way so if young people or minorities spike in turnout then the polls will have been underdone and the Democrats will reap the benefits of that. Also the prognosticators are being much more conservative this time because of the shocker in 2016 with The Donald...



MasterB
Posts: 1398
Joined: Sun Apr 23, 2006 2:59 pm
Location: Kalamazoo

Re: Election day Predictions

Post by MasterB » Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:30 pm

MWmetalhead wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:01 pm
I hope Leonard wins. I thought he was a terrific House Speaker.

Many of Nessel's own staff could not stand her; much of her campaign staff quit. That's all I need to know.

The SoS race will be an interesting one to watch, as will the Supreme Court race.

BTW, I'm proud to say that I did *not* vote for Julie McDonald for Sixth Circuit Court in Oakland County. I opted for one of the write-in candidates. It was a tough choice between Michael J. Blau and Maryann Bruder, but I opted for Mr. Blau. He seems to have a stronger desire for the seat.

For the other open seat on the Sixth Circuit bench, both listed candidates (Daniel Christ and Jake Cunningham) are well qualified and would likely serve the county well. I understand this seat handles Family Court cases. What Mr. Cunningham has accomplished at a relatively young age impresses me, so I went with him.

Almost forgot to mention - when I voted an hour ago, my precinct was pretty empty. I was first in line for the next available voting booth. Only four or five people were in line behind me. The gentleman who inserts the ballots into the machine confided that there was a brief machine malfunction earlier in the day. Prior to being handed my ballot, I was told there was heavy traffic there earlier in the day and that I "timed it right."

In terms of my votes by party - for partisan races, I voted for three Democrats total; the rest of my votes went to Republicans. I did notice that no incumbents were running for reelection for the MSU Board of Trustees. :hat
Dana Nessel only started ad's last week other than a 527 ad about 2 weeks ago. SoS I voted for Benson. MSU Trustees decided in Feb or March not to run wish that dude that made the statement that the NCAA wasn't going to investigate MSU was up this year I think 2020 is when he is up for reelection. I was surprised you couldn't vote ticket that you had to go down the whole ballot didn't matter to me I was going to do down ballot since Benson was a Dem.


Go Pistons, Let's Go Redwings.

bmw
Posts: 6725
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 1:02 am

Re: Election day Predictions

Post by bmw » Tue Nov 06, 2018 9:34 pm

I'm biting my fingernails over Cruz in TX. I put the most money on that race and it is way too close for comfort.

Though for what it is worth, the market still has this 75% chance for Cruz.



bmw
Posts: 6725
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 1:02 am

Re: Election day Predictions

Post by bmw » Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:01 pm

My betting results if anybody is curious:

$133.98 for 174 shares of Texas going republican (77 cents per share)
$81 for 100 shares of Tennessee going republican (81 cents per share)
$63.75 for 75 shares of North Dakota going republican (85 cents per share)

$25 for 50 shares of Arizona going republican (50 cents per share)
$30.50 for 50 shares of Missouri going republican (61 cents per share)
$17.00 for 50 shares of Senate (R) total at 52
$17.00 for 50 shares of Senate (R) total at 53

OH 12
KY 6

NM 2
VA 2
WA 8
CA 25


I did bail on all but CA25 before the shares were worthless (recovered like $8 altogether) and I had the guts to hold all others. NM2 and AZ Senate still to be determined but looking good. If they both hold I'll end up having made a little over $100 after fees.



bmw
Posts: 6725
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 1:02 am

Re: Election day Predictions

Post by bmw » Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:19 pm

And my report card for my predictions is as follows: Was wrong on the House. Absolutely NAILED the Senate. Also was within 1 point on both Michigan races. I had my doubts on the House in week or so leading up to the election but never formally changed my prediction in here.

-Stabbenow by 8
Stabbenow by 7

-Whitmer by 10
Whitmer by 9

-Cruz (R) in Texas by 7
Cruz by 3

-Blackburn (R) in Tennessee by 8
Blackburn by 11

-Rosen (D) in Nevada by 2
Rosen by 5

-Tester (D) in Montana by 4
Tester by 3

-Hawley (R) in Missouri by 3
Hawley by 6

-Braun (R) in Indiana by less than 1
Braun by 7

-Florida by 1 point either way. I have no gut feeling on this race
Scott by 0.4

Republicans 53 or 54 in the Senate
Likely 54, could be 53 depending on AZ

Republicans hold House 218-217
Democrats take House, likely around 228 seats



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MWmetalhead
Site Admin
Posts: 11873
Joined: Sun Oct 31, 2004 11:23 am

Re: Election day Predictions

Post by MWmetalhead » Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:24 pm

As usual, you did terrific as a whole with your predictions! Nicely done!



Deleted User 8570

Re: Election day Predictions

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:27 pm

bmw wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:19 pm
And my report card for my predictions is as follows: Was wrong on the House. Absolutely NAILED the Senate. Also was within 1 point on both Michigan races. I had my doubts on the House in week or so leading up to the election but never formally changed my prediction in here.

-Stabbenow by 8
Stabbenow by 7

-Whitmer by 10
Whitmer by 9

-Cruz (R) in Texas by 7
Cruz by 3

-Blackburn (R) in Tennessee by 8
Blackburn by 11

-Rosen (D) in Nevada by 2
Rosen by 5

-Tester (D) in Montana by 4
Tester by 3

-Hawley (R) in Missouri by 3
Hawley by 6

-Braun (R) in Indiana by less than 1
Braun by 7

-Florida by 1 point either way. I have no gut feeling on this race
Scott by 0.4

Republicans 53 or 54 in the Senate
Likely 54, could be 53 depending on AZ

Republicans hold House 218-217
Democrats take House, likely around 228 seats

Now on to 2020... but you are 2-0.. nice job...



bmw
Posts: 6725
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 1:02 am

Re: Election day Predictions

Post by bmw » Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:45 pm

Having looked at the Senate seats up in 2020, I think republicans holding the Senate is a virtual lock. Republicans would have to REALLY screw things up between now and then for the Senate to be in danger of changing hands. If you want my super-duper early Senate predictions, I'll say Republicans take back Alabama from Doug Jones, Democrats take Colorado from Cory Gardner and Maine from Susan Collins. Republicans will control Senate with 53 seats.

I have to say Trump is currently the favorite for President. Democrats will overplay their hand in the House and that will play right to Trump's base. I also think the democratic field and party platform right now is in complete disarray. Who do they have in their bullpen? The 6 people with greater than 10 percent chance (per PI) of being nominated are:

Kamala Harris
Bernie Sanders
Joe Biden
Elizabeth Warren
Cory Booker
Amy Klobuchar

Bernie is past his prime and I don't think will energize the youth vote. Same goes for Biden. Harris and Warren are way too far to the left to win in a general election. Booker and Klobuchar are a little more moderate, but Klobuchar has virtually no name recognition (even I couldn't tell you off the top of my head without looking it up what position she holds). The democrats just plain don't have any young rising stars.

The House is anybody's guess at this point. Not even going to try to venture a guess there.



Mike
Posts: 151
Joined: Sun Apr 10, 2011 11:00 pm

Re: Election day Predictions

Post by Mike » Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:48 pm

bmw wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:01 pm
NM2 and AZ Senate still to be determined but looking good.
Ix-nay on the former. Sorry!



ftballfan
Posts: 875
Joined: Thu Sep 17, 2009 6:38 pm

Re: Election day Predictions

Post by ftballfan » Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:00 pm

bmw wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:45 pm
Having looked at the Senate seats up in 2020, I think republicans holding the Senate is a virtual lock. Republicans would have to REALLY screw things up between now and then for the Senate to be in danger of changing hands. If you want my super-duper early Senate predictions, I'll say Republicans take back Alabama from Doug Jones, Democrats take Colorado from Cory Gardner and Maine from Susan Collins. Republicans will control Senate with 53 seats.

I have to say Trump is currently the favorite for President. Democrats will overplay their hand in the House and that will play right to Trump's base. I also think the democratic field and party platform right now is in complete disarray. Who do they have in their bullpen? The 6 people with greater than 10 percent chance (per PI) of being nominated are:

Kamala Harris
Bernie Sanders
Joe Biden
Elizabeth Warren
Cory Booker
Amy Klobuchar

Bernie is past his prime and I don't think will energize the youth vote. Same goes for Biden. Harris and Warren are way too far to the left to win in a general election. Booker and Klobuchar are a little more moderate, but Klobuchar has virtually no name recognition (even I couldn't tell you off the top of my head without looking it up what position she holds). The democrats just plain don't have any young rising stars.

The House is anybody's guess at this point. Not even going to try to venture a guess there.
Sanders and Biden are both older than Trump, so those are non-starters right away. I agree with you on Harris and Warren being too far left. Some people really like Beto O'Rourke as a potential candidate, but his name recognition might be worse than Klobuchar's.



Deleted User 8570

Re: Election day Predictions

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:10 pm

bmw wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:45 pm
Having looked at the Senate seats up in 2020, I think republicans holding the Senate is a virtual lock. Republicans would have to REALLY screw things up between now and then for the Senate to be in danger of changing hands. If you want my super-duper early Senate predictions, I'll say Republicans take back Alabama from Doug Jones, Democrats take Colorado from Cory Gardner and Maine from Susan Collins. Republicans will control Senate with 53 seats.

I have to say Trump is currently the favorite for President. Democrats will overplay their hand in the House and that will play right to Trump's base. I also think the democratic field and party platform right now is in complete disarray. Who do they have in their bullpen? The 6 people with greater than 10 percent chance (per PI) of being nominated are:

Kamala Harris
Bernie Sanders
Joe Biden
Elizabeth Warren
Cory Booker
Amy Klobuchar

Bernie is past his prime and I don't think will energize the youth vote. Same goes for Biden. Harris and Warren are way too far to the left to win in a general election. Booker and Klobuchar are a little more moderate, but Klobuchar has virtually no name recognition (even I couldn't tell you off the top of my head without looking it up what position she holds). The democrats just plain don't have any young rising stars.

The House is anybody's guess at this point. Not even going to try to venture a guess there.
Iowa, Georgia and North Carolina will also probably be at least competitive in the Senate for 2020. Beto O’Rourke could be one but I still say a midwestern candidate is the ticket. A progressive will be crushed.



Matt
Posts: 9850
Joined: Mon Dec 06, 2004 12:18 pm
Location: Where Ben Zonia couldn't cut it

Re: Election day Predictions

Post by Matt » Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:40 pm

bmw wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:45 pm
Having looked at the Senate seats up in 2020, I think republicans holding the Senate is a virtual lock. Republicans would have to REALLY screw things up between now and then for the Senate to be in danger of changing hands. If you want my super-duper early Senate predictions, I'll say Republicans take back Alabama from Doug Jones, Democrats take Colorado from Cory Gardner and Maine from Susan Collins. Republicans will control Senate with 53 seats.

I have to say Trump is currently the favorite for President. Democrats will overplay their hand in the House and that will play right to Trump's base. I also think the democratic field and party platform right now is in complete disarray. Who do they have in their bullpen? The 6 people with greater than 10 percent chance (per PI) of being nominated are:

Kamala Harris
Bernie Sanders
Joe Biden
Elizabeth Warren
Cory Booker
Amy Klobuchar

Bernie is past his prime and I don't think will energize the youth vote. Same goes for Biden. Harris and Warren are way too far to the left to win in a general election. Booker and Klobuchar are a little more moderate, but Klobuchar has virtually no name recognition (even I couldn't tell you off the top of my head without looking it up what position she holds). The democrats just plain don't have any young rising stars.

The House is anybody's guess at this point. Not even going to try to venture a guess there.
You really think Fauxchahontas and Spartacus (HRC: "They all look alike") have a chance???


What's more pathetic: harassing an old man who is paying to do a radio show or supporting a grifter like Trump?

Deleted User 8570

Re: Election day Predictions

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:59 pm

Matt wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 4:40 pm
bmw wrote:
Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:45 pm
Having looked at the Senate seats up in 2020, I think republicans holding the Senate is a virtual lock. Republicans would have to REALLY screw things up between now and then for the Senate to be in danger of changing hands. If you want my super-duper early Senate predictions, I'll say Republicans take back Alabama from Doug Jones, Democrats take Colorado from Cory Gardner and Maine from Susan Collins. Republicans will control Senate with 53 seats.

I have to say Trump is currently the favorite for President. Democrats will overplay their hand in the House and that will play right to Trump's base. I also think the democratic field and party platform right now is in complete disarray. Who do they have in their bullpen? The 6 people with greater than 10 percent chance (per PI) of being nominated are:

Kamala Harris
Bernie Sanders
Joe Biden
Elizabeth Warren
Cory Booker
Amy Klobuchar

Bernie is past his prime and I don't think will energize the youth vote. Same goes for Biden. Harris and Warren are way too far to the left to win in a general election. Booker and Klobuchar are a little more moderate, but Klobuchar has virtually no name recognition (even I couldn't tell you off the top of my head without looking it up what position she holds). The democrats just plain don't have any young rising stars.

The House is anybody's guess at this point. Not even going to try to venture a guess there.
You really think Fauxchahontas and Spartacus (HRC: "They all look alike") have a chance???
Booker yes... Warren... nah...



Matt
Posts: 9850
Joined: Mon Dec 06, 2004 12:18 pm
Location: Where Ben Zonia couldn't cut it

Re: Election day Predictions

Post by Matt » Thu Nov 08, 2018 7:33 pm

Spartacus is a joke. On that list, only Klobuchar would concern me.


What's more pathetic: harassing an old man who is paying to do a radio show or supporting a grifter like Trump?

Deleted User 8570

Re: Election day Predictions

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Thu Nov 08, 2018 7:39 pm

Matt wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 7:33 pm
Spartacus is a joke. On that list, only Klobuchar would concern me.
How about Sherrod Brown?



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