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Election day Predictions

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bmw
Posts: 6725
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 1:02 am

Re: Election day Predictions

Post by bmw » Mon Nov 05, 2018 8:36 pm

Well I just put down $488 of real money on PredictIt, spread between 10 races.



Deleted User 8570

Re: Election day Predictions

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Mon Nov 05, 2018 10:22 pm

bmw wrote:
Mon Nov 05, 2018 8:36 pm
Well I just put down $488 of real money on PredictIt, spread between 10 races.
Which 10 and how’d you bet so we can see how you did? You are the current reining prognosticator...



bmw
Posts: 6725
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 1:02 am

Re: Election day Predictions

Post by bmw » Mon Nov 05, 2018 11:40 pm

On PredictIt you buy shares - each share pays $1.00 to the winner and nothing to the loser. Shares are priced between 1 cent and 99 cents. So if you buy a share at 50 cents and are correct, you double your money.

I played things fairly safe as follows:

Senate:
$133.98 for 174 shares of Texas going republican (77 cents per share)
$81 for 100 shares of Tennessee going republican (81 cents per share)
$63.75 for 75 shares of North Dakota going republican (85 cents per share)
$25 for 50 shares of Arizona going republican (50 cents per share)
$30.50 for 50 shares of Missouri going republican (61 cents per share)

Races I avoided - Florida, Nevada, Montana, and Indiana. If I had to bet, I'd go D, D, D, R respectively. But I'll never put my money on a democrat winning. Just can't do it.

Additional Senate buys:
50 shares each of Senate balance of power being 52 R or 53 R, 17 cents each (so $17 to win $50 if exact R total is 52 or 53)

Hitting all of the above would pay $499 on a $351 investment. And with the way I played this, I virtually break-even as long as nothing stupid happens in Texas, North Dakota, or Tennessee (as those recover $349 of the $351).

House:
Picked republicans in the following races:
OH 12
KY 6
NM 2
VA 2
WA 8
CA 25
Altogether about $137 invested in these races. Shares mostly range between 35 and 70 cents. Would close to double if I hit everything.

I wish I would have bet here in 2016. I would have cleaned house.



Matt
Posts: 9850
Joined: Mon Dec 06, 2004 12:18 pm
Location: Where Ben Zonia couldn't cut it

Re: Election day Predictions

Post by Matt » Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:37 am

Mega Hertz wrote:
Sun Nov 04, 2018 8:46 am
As for the actual election, I hate doing these because it sets up expectations and that never ends well for me.

In this house, we will be casting votes for Slotkin and Whitmer.

Nationally, I believe Republicans will hold in the Senate and the Democrats will make gains in the house. They may even get a majority, but knowing the Democrats, they'll be stupid enough to help do Republicans' bidding. Changes will not be as drastic as they like to think. Odds are we will keep the status quo. Lovely.
What's wrong with the status quo? Do you really hate economic growth?


What's more pathetic: harassing an old man who is paying to do a radio show or supporting a grifter like Trump?

Deleted User 8570

Re: Election day Predictions

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:45 am

Matt wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:37 am
Mega Hertz wrote:
Sun Nov 04, 2018 8:46 am
As for the actual election, I hate doing these because it sets up expectations and that never ends well for me.

In this house, we will be casting votes for Slotkin and Whitmer.

Nationally, I believe Republicans will hold in the Senate and the Democrats will make gains in the house. They may even get a majority, but knowing the Democrats, they'll be stupid enough to help do Republicans' bidding. Changes will not be as drastic as they like to think. Odds are we will keep the status quo. Lovely.
What's wrong with the status quo? Do you really hate economic growth?
Built on stimulus at an inappropriate time and using a tax cut that’ll flame out and come back to 1-2% growth in about a year or so? Yes... that kind of stinks... you cannot sustain 3-4% growth in an economy as developed as ours... sorry it just isn’t sustainable and the tax cut blew a hole in the budget which will be greatly exacerbated by the next recession in 1-2 years... this is a 9 and a half year old recovery... it’s closing in on the end of that run



Matt
Posts: 9850
Joined: Mon Dec 06, 2004 12:18 pm
Location: Where Ben Zonia couldn't cut it

Re: Election day Predictions

Post by Matt » Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:48 am

BMW, who wins between Bishop-Slotkin and Epstein-Stephens?


What's more pathetic: harassing an old man who is paying to do a radio show or supporting a grifter like Trump?

Deleted User 8570

Re: Election day Predictions

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:51 am

Matt wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:48 am
BMW, who wins between Bishop-Slotkin and Epstein-Stephens?
Not that you asked me but RCP had Slotkin and Stephens up when I looked around midnight...



Matt
Posts: 9850
Joined: Mon Dec 06, 2004 12:18 pm
Location: Where Ben Zonia couldn't cut it

Re: Election day Predictions

Post by Matt » Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:54 am

NS8401 wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:51 am
Matt wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:48 am
BMW, who wins between Bishop-Slotkin and Epstein-Stephens?
Not that you asked me but RCP had Slotkin and Stephens up when I looked around midnight...
I think Bishop holds on, but Stephens probably wins. At least she'll get to move out of her mom's basement...


What's more pathetic: harassing an old man who is paying to do a radio show or supporting a grifter like Trump?

Deleted User 8570

Re: Election day Predictions

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Tue Nov 06, 2018 5:02 am

Matt wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:54 am
NS8401 wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:51 am
Matt wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:48 am
BMW, who wins between Bishop-Slotkin and Epstein-Stephens?
Not that you asked me but RCP had Slotkin and Stephens up when I looked around midnight...
I think Bishop holds on, but Stephens probably wins. At least she'll get to move out of her mom's basement...
Now you and I both know that the basement thing wasn’t quite true... just a wee bit of an exaggeration...



Mega Hertz
Posts: 4265
Joined: Fri Jun 15, 2012 10:09 pm
Location: Brighton

Re: Election day Predictions

Post by Mega Hertz » Tue Nov 06, 2018 6:40 am

Matt wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:37 am
Mega Hertz wrote:
Sun Nov 04, 2018 8:46 am
As for the actual election, I hate doing these because it sets up expectations and that never ends well for me.

In this house, we will be casting votes for Slotkin and Whitmer.

Nationally, I believe Republicans will hold in the Senate and the Democrats will make gains in the house. They may even get a majority, but knowing the Democrats, they'll be stupid enough to help do Republicans' bidding. Changes will not be as drastic as they like to think. Odds are we will keep the status quo. Lovely.
What's wrong with the status quo? Do you really hate economic growth?
Nope. And I haven't hated it in the past nine or so years it's been growing, either.


"Internet is no more like radio than intravenous feeding is like fine dining."
-TurkeyTop

Matt
Posts: 9850
Joined: Mon Dec 06, 2004 12:18 pm
Location: Where Ben Zonia couldn't cut it

Re: Election day Predictions

Post by Matt » Tue Nov 06, 2018 7:52 am

NS8401 wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 5:02 am
Matt wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:54 am
NS8401 wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:51 am
Matt wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:48 am
BMW, who wins between Bishop-Slotkin and Epstein-Stephens?
Not that you asked me but RCP had Slotkin and Stephens up when I looked around midnight...
I think Bishop holds on, but Stephens probably wins. At least she'll get to move out of her mom's basement...
Now you and I both know that the basement thing wasn’t quite true... just a wee bit of an exaggeration...
Kind of like Stephens' claim that she saved the auto industry?

My predictions:

Whitmer, Benson, and Leonard win. All 3 proposals pass.

Stabenow wins by low double digits.

Republicans keep the Senate in Washington and Lansing, but lose the House in both, albeit narrowly.


What's more pathetic: harassing an old man who is paying to do a radio show or supporting a grifter like Trump?

bmw
Posts: 6725
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 1:02 am

Re: Election day Predictions

Post by bmw » Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:55 am

Matt wrote:
Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:48 am
BMW, who wins between Bishop-Slotkin and Epstein-Stephens?
I haven't followed either of these races and there's not enough polling data for me to make any predictions, though they do both seem to slightly lead dem.



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Bryce
Posts: 7141
Joined: Thu Jan 03, 2008 12:04 pm

Re: Election day Predictions

Post by Bryce » Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:46 am

I am predicting that the State House stays in the hands of the Republican's by a very narrow margin. Leonard becomes the new Attorney General. Whitmere wins. James looses by five points.

Those are the only outcomes I'm rather sure of.


New York and Chicago were all in with respect to their sanctuary status — until they were hit with the challenge of actually providing sanctuary. In other words, typical liberal hypocrisy.

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MWmetalhead
Site Admin
Posts: 11873
Joined: Sun Oct 31, 2004 11:23 am

Re: Election day Predictions

Post by MWmetalhead » Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:01 pm

I hope Leonard wins. I thought he was a terrific House Speaker.

Many of Nessel's own staff could not stand her; much of her campaign staff quit. That's all I need to know.

The SoS race will be an interesting one to watch, as will the Supreme Court race.

BTW, I'm proud to say that I did *not* vote for Julie McDonald for Sixth Circuit Court in Oakland County. I opted for one of the write-in candidates. It was a tough choice between Michael J. Blau and Maryann Bruder, but I opted for Mr. Blau. He seems to have a stronger desire for the seat.

For the other open seat on the Sixth Circuit bench, both listed candidates (Daniel Christ and Jake Cunningham) are well qualified and would likely serve the county well. I understand this seat handles Family Court cases. What Mr. Cunningham has accomplished at a relatively young age impresses me, so I went with him.

Almost forgot to mention - when I voted an hour ago, my precinct was pretty empty. I was first in line for the next available voting booth. Only four or five people were in line behind me. The gentleman who inserts the ballots into the machine confided that there was a brief machine malfunction earlier in the day. Prior to being handed my ballot, I was told there was heavy traffic there earlier in the day and that I "timed it right."

In terms of my votes by party - for partisan races, I voted for three Democrats total; the rest of my votes went to Republicans. I did notice that no incumbents were running for reelection for the MSU Board of Trustees. :hat



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Bryce
Posts: 7141
Joined: Thu Jan 03, 2008 12:04 pm

Re: Election day Predictions

Post by Bryce » Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:29 pm

Not sure how much to read into this, but:

My poling place had two precincts. One encompasses many of the apartment complexes in the area an leans heavily Democrat. The other leans heavily Republican. There were long lines for the Democrat precinct and no wait whatsoever to cast a ballot in the other.

Might not be a good sign for the Republicans this election.


New York and Chicago were all in with respect to their sanctuary status — until they were hit with the challenge of actually providing sanctuary. In other words, typical liberal hypocrisy.

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