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LMAO @ channel 7 weather!!!

Discussion pertaining to Detroit, Ann Arbor, Port Huron, and SW Ontario
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MWmetalhead
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LMAO @ channel 7 weather!!!

Post by MWmetalhead » Fri Jul 20, 2018 7:58 pm

Some of us know that a mid-level influence off a cold Lake Huron combined with abnormally dry soil and a weak upper level jet stream makes it difficult for diurnal shower & storm activity to sustain itself over a widespread area in SE Michigan. As systems move in from the west or southwest, they seem to weaken or dissipate completely. If they happen to form overhead, they'll dump loads of rain over a localized area before dissipating rapidly.

So, on the 5:30 news today, channel 7 - as usual - did its chicken little routine about big, bad storms moving into the area.

Fast forward to the 7:00p news, and meteorologist Kevin Jeanes had to admit in sheepish fashion that the big, bad storms moving this way, the same ones he predicted were going to pound the area during the early evening hours, had completely fizzled! :rollin :rollin

For some reason, i thoroughly enjoyed that!

To be fair- the guy from AccuWeather who handles the PM drive forecasts for 950 WWJ got it completely wrong, too. I quote: "Everyone is going to see some rain this evening..." Yeah, right. What a dummy.

These guys are so damn clueless sometimes.


Radio's downfall has been under-investing in its core competency and becoming distracted by delusions of grandeur by thinking development of a half-assed national digital strategy will somehow put it on par with the Facebooks and Googles of the world.

NS8401
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Re: LMAO @ channel 7 weather!!!

Post by NS8401 » Fri Jul 20, 2018 8:48 pm

MWmetalhead wrote:
Fri Jul 20, 2018 7:58 pm
Some of us know that a mid-level influence off a cold Lake Huron combined with abnormally dry soil and a weak upper level jet stream makes it difficult for diurnal shower & storm activity to sustain itself over a widespread area in SE Michigan. As systems move in from the west or southwest, they seem to weaken or dissipate completely. If they happen to form overhead, they'll dump loads of rain over a localized area before dissipating rapidly.

So, on the 5:30 news today, channel 7 - as usual - did its chicken little routine about big, bad storms moving into the area.

Fast forward to the 7:00p news, and meteorologist Kevin Jeanes had to admit in sheepish fashion that the big, bad storms moving this way, the same ones he predicted were going to pound the area during the early evening hours, had completely fizzled! :rollin :rollin

For some reason, i thoroughly enjoyed that!

To be fair- the guy from AccuWeather who handles the PM drive forecasts for 950 WWJ got it completely wrong, too. I quote: "Everyone is going to see some rain this evening..." Yeah, right. What a dummy.

These guys are so damn clueless sometimes.
It was raining pretty good till it hit Lenawee county so as dark as it got here in Dundee it looked like we would get dumped on. But of course it suddenly and spectacularly fell apart. In fairness NWS had us in a marginal risk for severe weather.

As of 838 here’s the official line on the rest of tonight:
The high sub 900mb moist axis was pinched off well to the south of the state this afternoon, which
kept the higher instability reservoir and strong/severe convection well to the south of the area.
The loss of diurnal heating has all but diminished what little surface based cape was able to
develop late this afternoon. The ongoing showers and isolated thunderstorms now rotating across sw
lower mi/nrn in will weaken a bit with the loss in diurnal heating. These showers are however tied
to a mid level vorticity axis rotating around the upper low and narrow plume of higher mid level
moisture. So at least some scattered showers will lift into the area during the course of the night.
Cooling mid levels with the approach of the upper low will still warrant a chance of a thunderstorm
tonight, albeit a low one. The lack of sufficient instability has ended any severe wx potential for
the night. An earlier forecast update was already issued to remove the lakeshore flood advisory. Noadditional updates appear warranted.
So it looks more like the instability landed farther south than originally thought more than any of your reasons above... literally everybody had a forecast for rain today and the flow is out of the west southwest, it’ll come from the northeast after the low moves out on Sunday evening so unfortunately Lake Huron wasn’t involved today unless you live in Alpena. It’s just a lack of instability. It’ll pick up later tonight as the low moves overhead.



fuzzpower
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Re: LMAO @ channel 7 weather!!!

Post by fuzzpower » Fri Jul 20, 2018 9:13 pm

I was in London and it briefly poured in the afternoon, but virtually nothing SW of there on the way home. They cancelled the severe warning.

WJR mentioned storms but not that bad.



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MWmetalhead
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Re: LMAO @ channel 7 weather!!!

Post by MWmetalhead » Sat Jul 21, 2018 2:47 am

So it looks more like the instability landed farther south than originally thought more than any of your reasons above... literally everybody had a forecast for rain today and the flow is out of the west southwest, it’ll come from the northeast after the low moves out on Sunday evening so unfortunately Lake Huron wasn’t involved today unless you live in Alpena. It’s just a lack of instability. It’ll pick up later tonight as the low moves overhead.
We'll have to agree to disagree. A massive, cold body of water like Lake Huron is a key reason disturbances weaken or veer southward as they approach the area from the west.

As for the "it'll pick up later tonight" comment, I am only seeing widely scattered showers on radar right now, mostly near the Ohio line.


Radio's downfall has been under-investing in its core competency and becoming distracted by delusions of grandeur by thinking development of a half-assed national digital strategy will somehow put it on par with the Facebooks and Googles of the world.

NS8401
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Re: LMAO @ channel 7 weather!!!

Post by NS8401 » Sat Jul 21, 2018 3:59 am

MWmetalhead wrote:
Sat Jul 21, 2018 2:47 am
So it looks more like the instability landed farther south than originally thought more than any of your reasons above... literally everybody had a forecast for rain today and the flow is out of the west southwest, it’ll come from the northeast after the low moves out on Sunday evening so unfortunately Lake Huron wasn’t involved today unless you live in Alpena. It’s just a lack of instability. It’ll pick up later tonight as the low moves overhead.
We'll have to agree to disagree. A massive, cold body of water like Lake Huron is a key reason disturbances weaken or veer southward as they approach the area from the west.

As for the "it'll pick up later tonight" comment, I am only seeing widely scattered showers on radar right now, mostly near the Ohio line.
Your Lake Huron theory makes little sense when showers appear to form and intensify from interactions with it and those moving by it (not directly effected by it) fizzle... if they had to go over the lake and fizzled because it was cold I could see it but that’s not the situation. Plus it’s july and the lake is no longer that cold, especially given how warm it’s been so any temperature mitigation disappeared a couple of months ago.

Where did you get the idea the lake caused that much veering and disintegration this far away from it? The storms always turning at Lake Michigan is a jet stream thing... it ends up sitting that way a lot and the storms just follow it. Much of the time they follow it into Indiana and Kentucky... Huron is a little far North for that sort of effect. Not to mention how bad the thumb gets whacked with rain and storms all the time.

Luckily for me it picked up considerably where was...on and off for about 2 hours... not too bad but not enough to dent rain needs. Next shot is a 70% chance after 8am.



radiodoc
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Re: LMAO @ channel 7 weather!!!

Post by radiodoc » Sat Jul 21, 2018 4:19 am

I think it’s interesting that MW, who (as far as I know) isn’t a meteorologist, understands the weather better than the talent on the air here. I believe the only weatherman in town who gets the effect of Lake Huron is a Rich Luterman. Storms almost always fissile out when they hit metro Detroit because of the cooling of the lakes. And, now, Huron is colder than usual- so even stronger cells like the one that prompted the warnings on Monday became far less significant when they moved East.



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MWmetalhead
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Re: LMAO @ channel 7 weather!!!

Post by MWmetalhead » Sat Jul 21, 2018 7:33 am

Thank you, radiodoc, for the support. :hat

NS8401 - look at the University of Nebraska's drought monitor index, see where the driest areas in Michigan are, and then tell me I'm still wrong.
if they had to go over the lake and fizzled because it was cold I could see it but that’s not the situation. Plus it’s july and the lake is no longer that cold, especially given how warm it’s been so any temperature mitigation disappeared a couple of months ago.
The cells do not have to be directly over the water for there to a marine-layer influence. Craig James (former chief met. at WOOD TV in Grand Rapids) used to talk all the time about how lines of t-storms would initiate 30 to 40 miles inland from Lake Michigan on days when surface CAPE readings and other storm parameters were favorable for the general region. Why? Because Lake Michigan acted as a destabilization inhibitor. The same is also true of Lake Huron, albeit in a somewhat different manner.

If the storms were able to move faster (i.e. supported by a decent jet stream), the marine layer influence over Metro Detroit would be weaker. But over the past week to ten days, precip cells have been moving very slowly, almost meandering at times.

Most of Lake Huron is only in the low to mid 60's right now at the surface. As you get below the surface, water temps get much colder.

https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/gl ... pe=N&hr=21


Radio's downfall has been under-investing in its core competency and becoming distracted by delusions of grandeur by thinking development of a half-assed national digital strategy will somehow put it on par with the Facebooks and Googles of the world.

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Re: LMAO @ channel 7 weather!!!

Post by MWmetalhead » Sat Jul 21, 2018 9:46 am

Big spiral rain band moving from south to north this morning.

What happens?

Western part of it maintained its strength, and even intensified a bit. Eastern part of it is weakening and might even develop some holes. Western Oakland County is getting a nice soaking rain. Parts of eastern Oakland County might see little more than a sprinkle. Ditto for Macomb.

I've had less than a quarter inch of rain at my house in three weeks' time; there were multiple days in the upper 80's to mid 90's during that stretch. The big storms that blew up in the heat & oppressive humidity last weekend missed me by less than two miles on not one, not two, but three (!!!) separate occasions.


Radio's downfall has been under-investing in its core competency and becoming distracted by delusions of grandeur by thinking development of a half-assed national digital strategy will somehow put it on par with the Facebooks and Googles of the world.

organman95
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Re: LMAO @ channel 7 weather!!!

Post by organman95 » Sat Jul 21, 2018 10:14 am

MWmetalhead wrote:
Fri Jul 20, 2018 7:58 pm
Some of us know that a mid-level influence off a cold Lake Huron combined with abnormally dry soil and a weak upper level jet stream makes it difficult for diurnal shower & storm activity to sustain itself over a widespread area in SE Michigan. As systems move in from the west or southwest, they seem to weaken or dissipate completely. If they happen to form overhead, they'll dump loads of rain over a localized area before dissipating rapidly.

So, on the 5:30 news today, channel 7 - as usual - did its chicken little routine about big, bad storms moving into the area.

Fast forward to the 7:00p news, and meteorologist Kevin Jeanes had to admit in sheepish fashion that the big, bad storms moving this way, the same ones he predicted were going to pound the area during the early evening hours, had completely fizzled! :rollin :rollin

For some reason, i thoroughly enjoyed that!

To be fair- the guy from AccuWeather who handles the PM drive forecasts for 950 WWJ got it completely wrong, too. I quote: "Everyone is going to see some rain this evening..." Yeah, right. What a dummy.

These guys are so damn clueless sometimes.
Kinda like "Blizzard Bill" Spencer back in the 80s/early 90s at 9&10... "Cheboygan is going to get hit big tonight with a blizzard rolling through, 10-16 inches in most areas!" And there would be a light snow, maybe 3 inches over the course of 12 hours. LOL



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Re: LMAO @ channel 7 weather!!!

Post by NS8401 » Sat Jul 21, 2018 12:16 pm

MWmetalhead wrote:
Sat Jul 21, 2018 9:46 am
Big spiral rain band moving from south to north this morning.

What happens?

Western part of it maintained its strength, and even intensified a bit. Eastern part of it is weakening and might even develop some holes. Western Oakland County is getting a nice soaking rain. Parts of eastern Oakland County might see little more than a sprinkle. Ditto for Macomb.

I've had less than a quarter inch of rain at my house in three weeks' time; there were multiple days in the upper 80's to mid 90's during that stretch. The big storms that blew up in the heat & oppressive humidity last weekend missed me by less than two miles on not one, not two, but three (!!!) separate occasions.
I’ve live in the area my whole life and Macomb County is like a foreign country... never have been there...

That said if you’re that Far East it’s gonna be a bigger effect... I’ve always been on the west side of things... it fizzles but not totally over here so I’m used to that scenario...



bmw
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Re: LMAO @ channel 7 weather!!!

Post by bmw » Sat Jul 21, 2018 1:00 pm

MWmetalhead wrote:
Sat Jul 21, 2018 9:46 am
Big spiral rain band moving from south to north this morning.

What happens?

Western part of it maintained its strength, and even intensified a bit. Eastern part of it is weakening and might even develop some holes. Western Oakland County is getting a nice soaking rain. Parts of eastern Oakland County might see little more than a sprinkle. Ditto for Macomb.

I've had less than a quarter inch of rain at my house in three weeks' time; there were multiple days in the upper 80's to mid 90's during that stretch. The big storms that blew up in the heat & oppressive humidity last weekend missed me by less than two miles on not one, not two, but three (!!!) separate occasions.
Same thing has been happening up north here in Tawas City. Even this rain that has been spiraling around the state now for 2 days has dropped barely a few drops here, while areas about 5 to 6 miles north and east of here got, according to radar estimates, 3+ inches of rain. Has been the story here all summer. We can't BUY a raindrop around here, while it seems like literally everywhere else, often within just a few miles, has been getting a ton of rain. I remember watching the radar about a week to 10 days ago, there was a large blob of rain with lots of reds and yellows, probably the size of 4 counties, almost perfectly circular in shape, only 2 counties west of here and we were in the dead-center of where it was heading. Looked like we should have EASILY gotten 1 to 2 inches out of it. I watched it fall apart like nothing I've ever seen before and it didn't even get the road wet here.



DAC
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Re: LMAO @ channel 7 weather!!!

Post by DAC » Sat Jul 21, 2018 4:29 pm

We had an Emergency Alert System warning interrupt programming in the Saginaw area on Thursday and never got a drop of rain. Same thing, it all fizzled out.



non-anon bob
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Re: LMAO @ channel 7 weather!!!

Post by non-anon bob » Sun Jul 22, 2018 11:59 am

Both Friday's and Saturday's afternoon storm prediction forecasts were major fizzles, McShizzle! :razz


...and NOW, Ladies & Gentlemen...The Next Poster!
...CKLW, the Motor City...

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MWmetalhead
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Re: LMAO @ channel 7 weather!!!

Post by MWmetalhead » Sun Aug 26, 2018 12:22 pm

Everyone I watched last night and this morning (all channels, local & national) botched today's forecast.

"Becoming mostly sunny by late morning"...My ASS!!!!

Visible satellite shows dense cloud cover across pretty much all of southern MI, northern IN, and northern Ohio as of Noon ET. With very high dew points and a weak wind flow in SE Michigan, I have a tough time picturing the clouds breaking up much until 3:00p or beyond, and even then, we'll probably have filtered sunshine.

Areas up north will see a lot more sun.


Radio's downfall has been under-investing in its core competency and becoming distracted by delusions of grandeur by thinking development of a half-assed national digital strategy will somehow put it on par with the Facebooks and Googles of the world.

NS8401
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Re: LMAO @ channel 7 weather!!!

Post by NS8401 » Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:10 pm

MWmetalhead wrote:
Sun Aug 26, 2018 12:22 pm
Everyone I watched last night and this morning (all channels, local & national) botched today's forecast.

"Becoming mostly sunny by late morning"...My ASS!!!!

Visible satellite shows dense cloud cover across pretty much all of southern MI, northern IN, and northern Ohio as of Noon ET. With very high dew points and a weak wind flow in SE Michigan, I have a tough time picturing the clouds breaking up much until 3:00p or beyond, and even then, we'll probably have filtered sunshine.

Areas up north will see a lot more sun.
Blue sky at the airport at 1230...



radiodoc
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Re: LMAO @ channel 7 weather!!!

Post by radiodoc » Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:48 pm

Sunny at 12:30???....at the airport? Which one? Dallas?

I landed at the airport early afternoon. The landing was bumpy as hell and cloud cover was thick.

It took until about 3:00 before I saw sunshine in Oakland county. Not sure what happened after I left Metro around 1:45.



jsf
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Re: LMAO @ channel 7 weather!!!

Post by jsf » Sun Aug 26, 2018 8:13 pm

I was out at Hines Park Cruise and the sun showed about 2PM.



NS8401
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Re: LMAO @ channel 7 weather!!!

Post by NS8401 » Sun Aug 26, 2018 9:50 pm

radiodoc wrote:
Sun Aug 26, 2018 5:48 pm
Sunny at 12:30???....at the airport? Which one? Dallas?

I landed at the airport early afternoon. The landing was bumpy as hell and cloud cover was thick.

It took until about 3:00 before I saw sunshine in Oakland county. Not sure what happened after I left Metro around 1:45.
I had a H*** patch of blue sky at 1230 at 94 and Middlebelt... was heating up the bus enough to turn the blower on in the front... I had it off with the thick and dreary cloud cover...



sirrealone
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Re: LMAO @ channel 7 weather!!!

Post by sirrealone » Tue Aug 28, 2018 12:48 pm

The thing is that if they predicted something light and then it intensified into a severe storm, everyone here would be crucifying them. Given the choice, the forecasters would probably rather send people inside unnecessarily versus telling people it's going to be fine and then have a bunch of people get hurt if the storm worsens.



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