Languages

[Matt]

If we take Beemers logic to its conclusion then John Kerry and Mitt Romney were shoe-ins for their respective races and it was case closed in March. As I recall they both lost.

Do you think I can get him to buy my stash of Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson September Heisman shirts?

Don't forget Joe Milton!

Milton was a Practice Heisman.

[bmw]

...

You're leaving the one most important number out of your analysis. Biden's approval rating. It sits at 41 percent (RCP average).

Trump's approval rating was around 45-46% right before the 2020 election when he lost. Biden's hasn't cracked 45 since 2021. And it has been on a shockingly STABLE very slow decline for the past 12 months.

I said this months ago in here - Biden's approval rating is not going to recover. Ever. At his age, Biden doesn't have what it takes to get it to go back up. It is hopelessly stuck in the low 40s.

If Trump couldn't get re-elected with a 45 percent approval rating, there's no way Biden is going to get it done at 41.

[Rate This]

...

You're leaving the one most important number out of your analysis. Biden's approval rating. It sits at 41 percent (RCP average).

Trump's approval rating was around 45-46% right before the 2020 election when he lost. Biden's hasn't cracked 45 since 2021. And it has been on a shockingly STABLE very slow decline for the past 12 months.

I said this months ago in here - Biden's approval rating is not going to recover. Ever. At his age, Biden doesn't have what it takes to get it to go back up. It is hopelessly stuck in the low 40s.

If Trump couldn't get re-elected with a 45 percent approval rating, there's no way Biden is going to get it done at 41.

But he’s running against Trump who couldn’t get re-elected in the first place…. And it’s not like Trump is suddenly more popular with some untapped subset of people after being completely underwater the entire time he’s been out there. He’s not winning new converts or something. And making an age quip? Dude they are 3 years apart… anything about “at his age” automatically applies to Trump. Under normal circumstances his 41% would be a problem… but Trump scares the hell out of enough people to have them hit the Biden button just to not get Trump. Approval or not be damned. They also haven’t campaigned yet so the idea that his approval is locked at 41 or lower permanently is premature. They’ve focused on governing rather than his approval rating. Holding rallies all the time while you’re president in non-election years the way Trump did isn’t normal.

Instead of a neutral analyst you’ve become someone who wants the statistics to prove his desired outcome. You go do that… it worked well in 2022.

[tapeisrolling]

Before I believe a 'poll' I would like to know the METHOD used to get the numbers. Phone calling? Standing outside a diner? or bumper stickers. So few people have land lines to call and most cell owners don't answer unless they know who's calling.
Years ago I watched a Political Science professor show how just the phrasing of the question can totally change the response. This may be why so many polls are wrong on voting day.
So what were the questions and who did they ask via what media, Phone, text, Faceplant, in-person or tea leaves?

[teetoppz28]

...

You're leaving the one most important number out of your analysis. Biden's approval rating. It sits at 41 percent (RCP average).

Trump's approval rating was around 45-46% right before the 2020 election when he lost. Biden's hasn't cracked 45 since 2021. And it has been on a shockingly STABLE very slow decline for the past 12 months.

I said this months ago in here - Biden's approval rating is not going to recover. Ever. At his age, Biden doesn't have what it takes to get it to go back up. It is hopelessly stuck in the low 40s.

If Trump couldn't get re-elected with a 45 percent approval rating, there's no way Biden is going to get it done at 41.

You win the internet today.

[bmw]

You win the internet today.

I almost added the (no pun intended) disclaimer and worded it "At his age, Biden doesn't have what it takes to get it back up" but I thought nah, I'll keep it clean. Then you come along

[Round Six]

Before I believe a 'poll' I would like to know the METHOD used to get the numbers. Phone calling? Standing outside a diner? or bumper stickers. So few people have land lines to call and most cell owners don't answer unless they know who's calling.
Years ago I watched a Political Science professor show how just the phrasing of the question can totally change the response. This may be why so many polls are wrong on voting day.
So what were the questions and who did they ask via what media, Phone, text, Faceplant, in-person or tea leaves?

I believe at one time Rate This gave a good synopsis of the nuts and bolts of poll taking. Perhaps he'll do it again.

[zzand]

What seems to get lost is about Forty percent of Republican voters want someone other than trump. So his base is solid but that base is not enough to win. He isn't doing overly well with undecided, independent or that 40 percent and without the majority of them he can't win against his equally senile opponent.

[Rate This]

What seems to get lost is about Forty percent of Republican voters want someone other than trump. So his base is solid but that base is not enough to win. He isn't doing overly well with undecided, independent or that 40 percent and without the majority of them he can't win against his equally senile opponent.

That’s my general point. I agree 100% with this assessment.

[Rate This]

Yesterday in Trumps latest rally gaffe:

Trump: Shortly after we win the presidency, I will have the horrible war between Russia and Ukraine settled. I know them both very well and we will restore peace through strength. Get that war settled. It's a bad war. And Putin has so little respect for Obama that he's starting to throw around the nuclear word [unintelligible].

Of course with Obama at 60% approval if he wasn’t term limited he would wipe the floor with Trump.

And his North Carolina rally featured several:
https://www.meidastouch.com/news/donald ... telligible

[Round Six]

What seems to get lost is about Forty percent of Republican voters want someone other than trump. So his base is solid but that base is not enough to win. He isn't doing overly well with undecided, independent or that 40 percent and without the majority of them he can't win against his equally senile opponent.

That’s my general point. I agree 100% with this assessment.

I too agree with zzand. Forty percent of Republican voters would like someone other than Trump. But if it ends up Joe vs. The Donald, which will they choose?

I'm thinking most of that 40 percent are going to grumble under their breath as they vote for Trump. Very few of that 40 percent are going to vote for Biden or a third party instead. And none of them are going to sit it out.

[Rate This]

What seems to get lost is about Forty percent of Republican voters want someone other than trump. So his base is solid but that base is not enough to win. He isn't doing overly well with undecided, independent or that 40 percent and without the majority of them he can't win against his equally senile opponent.

That’s my general point. I agree 100% with this assessment.

I too agree with zzand. Forty percent of Republican voters would like someone other than Trump. But if it ends up Joe vs. The Donald, which will they choose?

I'm thinking most of that 40 percent are going to grumble under their breath as they vote for Trump. Very few of that 40 percent are going to vote for Biden or a third party instead. And none of them are going to sit it out.

Many of the people in that 40% are hard no on Trump actually… the exit polls have consistently shown that.

[Round Six]

Many of the people in that 40% are hard no on Trump actually… the exit polls have consistently shown that.

Okay fine. Sure it's a hard No UNTIL the they draw the curtain. So who they going to vote for? In the booth they gotta make a choice. I'm thinking it won't be no Eeny, meeny, miny, moe. Won't be no coin toss. And it won't be Joe.

[zzand]

In my case it will be third party

[Honeyman]

In my case it will be third party

Prepare to get blasted for voicing your democratic right to vote for whoever you think is best qualified for the job.