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The Economic Data Thread 2.0

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Deleted User 8570

Re: The Economic Data Thread 2.0

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Thu Jan 05, 2017 2:14 pm

Bryce wrote:Pretty easy to cherry pick positive numbers in a narrow time frame.

Fact is, Obama will leave office with an average GDP during his time in office at about 1.6 percent. Even the Carter economy beat those numbers by quite a bit.

I don't think you could find too many people.that would tell you the Carter economy was very good.

The following from above should.not.be.discounted:
Some manufacturers reported a bounce in their clients' willingness to spend after the November election, as uncertainty about the result had lifted. Several surveys of business confidence have also shown that executives are hopeful for fewer regulations and lower taxes under the new administration
Ok first I'm not cherry picking anything so don't even try barking up that tree. I'm literally reporting all of the major economic data that's coming out. Secondly there have been largely positive numbers since we left the recession in 2009. The hole was so big that it took years to recover. Third I will continue to report these results objectively indefinitely as long as the Buzzboard is alive and well. Fourth if the economy starts growing at 4 or 5% the fed will panic and raise rates faster than it planned in an effort to cool it off so we don't get high inflation and an eventual recession from overheating. Fifth the first part of the statement you selected is nothing more than pent up demand. The second part is related to the overheating comment above. If they start doing more because of tax and regulatory relaxation expect Yellen and company to step in and check it if it gets out of hand.

Finally I have a few pieces of data today. We'll start with the ADP Private Sector Payrolls Report for December which showed a gain of 153,000 jobs which is slightly below the full 2016 monthly average:
WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. companies reported a modest gain of 153,000 jobs last month, all in service industries such as retail and health care. The report provided the latest evidence of the economy's transition away from manufacturing and other blue-collar work.

Payroll provider ADP said Thursday that hotels and restaurants added 18,000 jobs in December, while higher-paying professional and business services, such as engineering, added 24,000. Manufacturers lost 9,000 jobs and construction firms shed 2,000.

Hiring has been steady this year, but most of it has been in both higher- and lower-paying service jobs. Factories, by contrast, have cut workers as a strong dollar and weak overseas growth have hammered exports of U.S. goods.

The mining industry, which includes oil and gas drilling, also lost jobs last year amid low energy prices. Those trends pose challenges for President-elect Donald Trump's plans to boost job growth in those sectors.

The report also points to a modest slowdown in hiring. Businesses added a robust 215,000 jobs in November. Hiring averaged 174,000 jobs a month in 2016, according to ADP, down from an average of 209,000 in 2015. Most economists expect job gains to slow a bit more in 2017 because businesses have a smaller pool of unemployed people to hire from.

The economy picked up in the July-September quarter, expanding at a solid 3.5 percent annual rate, but growth is expected to be sluggish for all of 2016. Still, consumer confidence has jumped since the election, particularly among Republican voters, and the stock market is near record highs.

Businesses are also confident enough in future consumer demand to hold onto their workers. Applications for unemployment benefits, a proxy for layoffs, fell to just 235,000 last week, nearly the lowest level since 1973.

The ADP data cover only private businesses and often diverge from official figures. Economists forecast that the government's jobs report, to be released Friday, will show a gain of 173,000, according to data provider FactSet.

That report may also show that the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.7 percent in December, up from 4.6 percent the previous month, economists expect. Still, that is a low rate that suggests employers may have to offer higher pay to attract and keep workers. That could deliver broader pay gains for more Americans.
Last edited by Deleted User 8570 on Thu Jan 05, 2017 2:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Deleted User 8570

Re: The Economic Data Thread 2.0

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Thu Jan 05, 2017 2:20 pm

The second piece of data today is the weekly jobless claims report. Claims were down a seasonally adjusted 28,000 to 235,000. That's barely above the 233,000 in late November that marked the lowest level since 1973. The 4 week moving average which is less volatile fell 5,750 to 256,750. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits has fallen 5% in the last year to 2.1 million.
WASHINGTON (AP) — The number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits dropped significantly last week, a sign of a robust job market.

THE NUMBERS: Weekly requests for jobless aid fell 28,000 to a seasonally adjusted 235,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. That is barely above the 233,000 jobless claims achieved in late November, the lowest weekly total since 1973. The less volatile four-week moving average for claims fell 5,750 to 256,750.

During the past 12 months, the number of people receiving benefits has tumbled 5 percent to 2.1 million.

THE TAKEAWAY: This historically low level of applications for unemployment benefits suggests that employers are holding onto workers and likely looking to add jobs. Weekly claims have stayed below the critical threshold of 300,000 for 96 straight weeks, the longest streak since 1970.

KEY DRIVERS: Employers see the economy as continuing its seven-year expansion into 2017. The stock market ended last year on a relatively strong note, while there are signs of greater consumer confidence among Republicans following Donald Trump's presidential victory.

Employers are expected to add roughly 175,000 jobs in the government's December jobs report, which will be released Friday. This would mark a net monthly gain as the overall economy has added 2.25 million jobs over the past year.



Deleted User 8570

Re: The Economic Data Thread 2.0

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Thu Jan 05, 2017 2:29 pm

Lastly the service sector grew for the 83rd month in a row in December. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM)'s index was at 57.2 in December unchanged from November. Any reading above 50 indicates growth. Both November and Decembers readings are the highest since October 2015 for the index. New orders rose to a 16 month high of 61.6, the survey includes 15 service industries with 11 reporting increasing business activity and 4 reporting falling activity in December.
WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. services companies grew again in December during the holiday season, maintaining the high pace reached in the previous month.

The Institute for Supply Management, a trade organization of purchasing managers, said Thursday that its services index came in at 57.2 in December, matching the November figure. It was the strongest reading since October 2015. Anything above 50 signals growth.

The services industry has now grown for 83 straight months. The strength in December reflected in part a strong gain in new orders which rose to a 16-month high of 61.6.

Andrew Hunter, an economist at Capital Economics, said the jump in orders was a hopeful sign that activity in services, where most Americans work, will remain strong in coming months.

Rob Martin, an economist at Barclays Research, said that the report was "consistent with ongoing solid activity in the non-manufacturing sector."

The survey said that 11 industries, led by entertainment and recreation and retail trade, reported increased business activity in December. Four industries, including educational services and public administration, reported decreased activity during the month.



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Bryce
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Re: The Economic Data Thread 2.0

Post by Bryce » Thu Jan 05, 2017 2:30 pm

NS8401 wrote:
Bryce wrote:Pretty easy to cherry pick positive numbers in a narrow time frame.

Fact is, Obama will leave office with an average GDP during his time in office at about 1.6 percent. Even the Carter economy beat those numbers by quite a bit.

I don't think you could find too many people.that would tell you the Carter economy was very good.

The following from above should.not.be.discounted:
Some manufacturers reported a bounce in their clients' willingness to spend after the November election, as uncertainty about the result had lifted. Several surveys of business confidence have also shown that executives are hopeful for fewer regulations and lower taxes under the new administration
Ok first I'm not cherry picking anything so don't even try barking up that tree. I'm literally reporting all of the major economic data that's coming out. Secondly there have been largely positive numbers since we left the recession in 2009. The hole was so big that it took years to recover. Third I will continue to report these results objectively indefinitely as long as the Buzzboard is alive and well.]
My response was directed at the Glare person's comments.


New York and Chicago were all in with respect to their sanctuary status — until they were hit with the challenge of actually providing sanctuary. In other words, typical liberal hypocrisy.

Deleted User 8570

Re: The Economic Data Thread 2.0

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Thu Jan 05, 2017 2:34 pm

Bryce wrote:
NS8401 wrote:
Bryce wrote:Pretty easy to cherry pick positive numbers in a narrow time frame.

Fact is, Obama will leave office with an average GDP during his time in office at about 1.6 percent. Even the Carter economy beat those numbers by quite a bit.

I don't think you could find too many people.that would tell you the Carter economy was very good.

The following from above should.not.be.discounted:
Some manufacturers reported a bounce in their clients' willingness to spend after the November election, as uncertainty about the result had lifted. Several surveys of business confidence have also shown that executives are hopeful for fewer regulations and lower taxes under the new administration
Ok first I'm not cherry picking anything so don't even try barking up that tree. I'm literally reporting all of the major economic data that's coming out. Secondly there have been largely positive numbers since we left the recession in 2009. The hole was so big that it took years to recover. Third I will continue to report these results objectively indefinitely as long as the Buzzboard is alive and well.]
My response was directed at the Glare person's comments.
Oh well anyways take it as an FYI. At this point I have no dog in the fight other than hard numbers.



Deleted User 8570

Re: The Economic Data Thread 2.0

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Fri Jan 06, 2017 12:52 pm

Online sales were up this past holiday season.
NEW YORK (AP) — Online sales during the recently concluded holiday season rose to $91.7 billion, topping 2015's tally by 11 percent.

That's according to Adobe, which says over $1 billion in sales were generated on 57 of the 61 days between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31.

Mobile sales — those made on smartphones and tablets — rose 23 percent to $28.43 billion.

Adobe says it measures 80 percent of all online transactions from the top 100 U.S. retailers.

Separately, ComScore says its data shows a 12 percent increase in desktop online holiday sales, to $63.1 billion. Cyber Monday — the Monday after Thanksgiving — ranked as the year's heaviest spending day, with desktop buying exceeding $2 billion for the third straight year.



Deleted User 8570

Re: The Economic Data Thread 2.0

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Fri Jan 06, 2017 1:20 pm

Factory orders were down in November while a proxy for plans to invest in business rose:
WASHINGTON (AP) — Orders to U.S. factories fell for the first time in five months in November, but much of the weakness reflected a swing in the volatile category of commercial aircraft. A key category that tracks business investment spending posted an increase.

Factory orders dropped 2.4 percent after a 2.8 percent rise in October, the Commerce Department reported Friday. It was the first decline since June but the weakness was led by a 73.8 percent plunge in demand for commercial aircraft following a 94.5 percent surge in October.

A key category that serves as a proxy for business investment spending increased 0.9 percent after a 0.5 percent rise in October. This category has lagged for much of this year as a result of big cutbacks in the oil and gas industry.

Orders for durable goods, items expected to last at least three years, fell 4.5 percent, only a slight revision from a preliminary report showing a drop of 4.6 percent. Orders for nondurable goods such as chemicals, paper and clothing, were down 0.2 percent following a 0.6 percent increase in October.

The 0.9 percent increase in business investment, while still modest, was the third best showing this year, and it marked the first back-to-back gains since July and August.

The increases could be a sign that businesses are beginning to invest again after more than a year of cutbacks that have weighed on the economy. Through the first 11 months of 2016, business investment is down 3.8 percent compared to 2015. The big drop in oil and gas prices earlier in 2016 has been a key culprit, trigging cutbacks in orders by drilling companies for steel pipe and drilling equipment.

Manufacturers have also struggled with a stronger dollar and weak economies overseas, which have harmed exports. The dollar's rise in value makes exports more expensive and imports cheaper.



Deleted User 8570

Re: The Economic Data Thread 2.0

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Fri Jan 06, 2017 1:26 pm

The trade deficit for November was $45.2 Billion, highest in 9 months...
WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. trade deficit in November rose to the highest level in nine months as imports of oil and other foreign goods increased, while American exports fell for a second month.

The trade deficit jumped 6.8 percent to $45.2 billion, the largest imbalance since February, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Exports edged down 0.2 percent to $122.4 billion, reflecting lower overseas sales of American-made airplanes, autos and farm products. Imports rose 1.1 percent to $231.1 billion, led by a 7.6 percent jump in oil.

President-elect Donald Trump made America's large trade deficits a central part of his campaign. He promised to impose high tariffs on countries such as China and Mexico unless they reformed what Trump charged were unfair trading practices that have cost millions of American jobs.

A lower deficit adds to the overall economy because it means American companies are selling more to foreign countries than Americans are purchases from abroad. The deficit is the difference between exports and imports.

In November, imports rose to the highest level since June 2015, and economists predicted further increases as the U.S. economy picks up momentum.

Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said the drop in exports in November was not surprising given that the value of the dollar has risen to a 14-year high against other currencies. A stronger dollar makes America products more expensive on foreign markets. Guatieri predicted the trade deficit would be a drag on growth going forward.

"Trade will weigh on economic growth this year but other sectors will more than pick up the slack," he said in a research note.

For November, America's deficit with China narrowed slightly to $30.5 billion. For the first 11 months of 2016, the deficit with China totaled $319.3 billion, 5.9 percent lower than the same period in 2015 but still the largest imbalance with any single country. The deficit with Mexico dropped 6.5 percent in November to $5.8 billion and totaled $58.8 billion through the first 11 months of 2016, up 4.9 percent from 2015.

The overall deficit through November is running 1.1 percent below the pace in 2015 when the deficit in goods and services trade totaled $500.4 billion.

Trump has threatened to slap tariffs as high as 45 percent on China and Mexico unless those countries stop practices Trump believes have cost American jobs. To carry out his campaign pledges, Trump is assembling a trade team that represents a break from traditional Republican free-trade policies.

This week he announced he would nominate Robert Lighthizer, a former trade official under President Ronald Reagan, to be U.S. trade representative, the government chief's trade negotiator. As a Washington lawyer representing U.S. steel companies, Lighthizer has been a vocal proponent of imposing tariffs on steel imports.

The rise in imports reflected a 7.6 percent jump in petroleum imports, which rose to $14.3 billion.

The deficit with the European Union rose 12.4 percent in November to $14.8 billion.



Deleted User 8570

Re: The Economic Data Thread 2.0

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Fri Jan 06, 2017 2:30 pm

December Jobs Report... 156,000 new jobs, unemployment up to 4.7% from 4.6% and 17,000 manufacturing jobs added. Hourly pay was up by the most in 7 years rising 2.9% from a year earlier. More below:
WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. employers added 156,000 jobs in December, capping a year of slower but solid hiring and providing the last major snapshot of the economy President-elect Donald Trump will inherit from President Barack Obama.

Friday's report from the Labor Department portrayed a job market that remains durable 7½ years after the recovery from the Great Recession began. Though the unemployment rate rose to 4.7 percent from a nine-year low of 4.6 percent, it did so for an encouraging reason: More people began looking for work. Because not all of them found jobs immediately, more people were counted as unemployed in December.

Hourly pay jumped 2.9 percent from a year earlier, the sharpest increase in more than seven years. That is a positive sign that the low unemployment rate is forcing some businesses to offer higher wages to attract and keep workers. Sluggish growth in Americans' paychecks has been a longstanding weak spot in the economic recovery.

For all of 2016, job growth averaged 180,000 a month, down from 229,000 in 2015, but enough to lower unemployment over time.

"While job growth has slowed somewhat, this is likely more due to a shortage of qualified workers rather than a lack of confidence among business leaders," said Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.

Hiring last month was led by the health care sector, which added 43,000 jobs, mostly in doctors' offices and hospitals. Manufacturing resumed hiring after four months of job cuts, adding 17,000.

Restaurants and bars gained 30,000 positions. Transportation and warehousing, fueled by the growth of online shopping during the holiday season, added 15,000. On the other hand, construction and mining companies shed jobs.

A broader gauge of unemployment, which includes part-time workers who would prefer full-time work as well as people who have stopped looking for jobs, dipped to 9.2 percent from 9.3 percent. That's the lowest level since April 2008.

"More people are back at work than at any point since the recession," noted Jed Kolko, chief economist at the job site Indeed. "However, Trump will inherit an economy that's riding high but faces long-term challenges. Fewer adults are at work than before the recession, manufacturing is lagging despite an uptick in December and the acceleration in wage growth, while great for workers, could raise inflation fears."

In addition, many men, especially those without a college education, have suffered as the job market has shifted away from blue collar work such as manufacturing and mining toward industries that either require higher skills, like information technology, or that pay less and are dominated by women, such as health care.

Though the unemployment rate has returned to its pre-recession level, the proportion of Americans in their prime working years who are either working or looking for work remains far below where it was before the recession began. When people stop looking for a job, they're no longer counted as unemployed. Those "dropouts" have contributed to a declining unemployment rate over the past eight years.

Trump spotlighted that trend as a shortcoming in Obama's record and charged during the election campaign that the unemployment rate was a "hoax." He now faces the steep challenge of bringing back men who have left the workforce.

Since the election, Trump has successfully pressured several manufacturers to keep some jobs in the United States, including Ford and United Technologies' air conditioning unit Carrier.

Even so, and despite last month's increase in factory jobs, manufacturing employment declined by 45,000 in 2016.

The steady rise in restaurant, hotel and retail jobs has also increased the ranks of part-time workers who would prefer full-time work. Those industries disproportionately hire part-timers.

About 5.6 million people work part time but want full-time work, a big improvement since the recession. Yet seven years into the recovery, that figure is still well above pre-recession levels of about 4.4 million.

Other recent economic data have been more encouraging. Consumers and small businesses have become more confident since the election, which could lead to increased spending and hiring.

And purchases of costly items like homes and cars have been strong, though they're threatened by higher interest rates. But if hiring and wage gains continue, they could offset at least some of the depressive effects of higher borrowing costs.

Auto sales rose for a seventh straight year in 2016 to a record high. Industry analysts expect sales to slip a bit this year but to remain at a healthy level.

And home sales reached their highest point in nearly a decade in November. Mortgage rates have jumped since the election but dipped this week, suggesting that rates might level off.



Deleted User 8570

Re: The Economic Data Thread 2.0

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Tue Jan 10, 2017 1:26 pm

The latest JOLTS survey came out today. It measured how many folks quit their jobs and how many job openings employers posted in November:
WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. employers posted more jobs in November and quitting also increased — signs that job gains and wages may increase in the months ahead.

The number of available jobs rose 1.3 percent in November from the previous month to 5.5 million, the Labor Department said Tuesday. That's below a post-recession peak of 5.8 million in April. Hiring rose 1.1 percent to 5.2 million.

The number of Americans who quit their jobs increased 1.4 percent to nearly 3.1 million, the second-highest total since the Great Recession. Quits are generally a good sign that workers are confident enough to leave their positions for new jobs. Rising quits can also point to higher pay, since most people take new jobs with bigger paychecks.

The figures echo last week's jobs report, which showed a moderate gain of 156,000 new jobs in December and the biggest annual wage gains in more than seven years.

Last week's jobs figure is a net gain after layoffs, quits and retirements are subtracted from overall hiring.

Tuesday's data comes from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey, or JOLTS, and are more detailed and provide a fuller view of the job market

With the unemployment rate at 4.7 percent, near a nine-year low, employers are facing pressure to raise pay in order to keep and attract workers.

The number of available jobs is also high, which suggests businesses are having trouble finding the workers they need to fill their open positions. That trend may also force employers to offer bigger paychecks.

Job openings rose in only two industries: Hotels and restaurants and state and local government. Openings were little changed or down slightly in manufacturing, construction, retail, financial services, and education and health.



Deleted User 8570

Re: The Economic Data Thread 2.0

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Tue Jan 10, 2017 1:30 pm

Wholesale Inventories rose by the largest amount since November 2014 and sales at the wholesale level were up the most in 4 months:
WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. wholesale businesses boosted their stockpiles in November by the largest amount in two years, while sales increased at a slower pace.

The Commerce Department says inventories held by wholesalers rose 1 percent in November after having fallen 0.1 percent in October. It was the biggest one-month gain since November 2014.

Sales at the wholesale level rose 0.4 percent in November after a 1.1 percent surge in October, the best in four months.

For much of the past year, businesses at all levels have been struggling to work down a pile of excess inventories, an effort that has been a drag on overall economic growth. However, economists believe that process is drawing to an end and inventory rebuilding will contribute to stronger growth in the future.



Deleted User 8570

Re: The Economic Data Thread 2.0

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Mon Jan 16, 2017 3:57 pm

Citing the incoming Trump Administration the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its outlook for 2017 and 2018:
WASHINGTON (AP) — The International Monetary Fund on Monday raised its forecast for the U.S. economy over the next two years, saying President-elect Donald Trump's policies should boost economic growth, particularly in 2018. But officials warned that if Trump's protectionist trade proposals set off a trade war, that could be "quite destructive" for the global economy.

The IMF also increased 2017 growth projections for a number of other countries including China, Germany, Japan and Britain, but warned that the global economy faced a number of downside risks from rising protectionism to a jump in interest rates.

The 189-nation global lending agency's latest economic outlook took note of the significant impact Trump's election has already had in giving a boost to U.S. stock prices, interest rates and the dollar. The new outlook puts U.S. economic growth at 2.3 percent this year and 2.5 percent in 2018. That would be an improvement from lackluster U.S. growth around 1.6 percent in 2016.

During the campaign, Trump said his economic policies of tax cuts, regulatory reform and boosts in infrastructure spending would lift U.S. growth to annual rates of 4 percent.

The new forecast represents a boost of 0.1 percentage point this year and an increase of 0.4 percentage point for 2018, when Trump's stimulus plans would be expected to be phased in. That is a half-point higher growth than the IMF was forecasting in October, before Trump's election.

In contrast, the World Bank last week left its U.S. forecast unchanged at 2.2 percent growth in 2017 and 2.1 percent for 2018, arguing that there was too much uncertainty over the fate of Trump's proposals to incorporate them in a forecast.

But IMF Chief Economist Maurice Obstfeld told reporters at a briefing Monday that he viewed the IMF's upgrade for the United States as a moderate increase that took into account the U.S. election results.

"We now have the presidency and the legislative branch in the same hands. It seems very clear to us that some of the promises will be delivered on," Obstfeld said. "We know the direction of policies. We don't know the specifics."

He said that the IMF had chosen not to incorporate Trump's threats of imposing higher tariffs on countries such as China and Mexico if their trade policies do not change because of a belief "that at the end of the day, countries will realize these are not in their best interests given the threat of retaliation. ... The outbreak of a trade war would be quite destructive."

For the overall global economy, the IMF left its projections unchanged growth of 3.4 percent for this year and 3.6 percent for 2018, both up from 3.1 percent growth in 2016, a year when global growth slowed to its weakest performance since the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

But the IMF saw better prospects in a number of countries including Germany, Japan, Spain and Britain, thanks in part to a rebound in growth in many parts of the world in the second half of last year that provided momentum going into 2017.

"The global economic landscape started to shift in the second half of 2016," Obstfeld said, helped by a rebound in manufacturing activity in many countries and the financial market rally that started with Trump's November election victory.

But Obstfeld said there was a wider than usual range of upside and downside risks in part because of the uncertainty over how much of Trump's program will win congressional approval and what the spillover effects will be for the rest of the world.

While Trump's election victory boosted economic prospects in the United States, the impact has been uneven for the rest of the world. Some countries could see stronger growth from the increase in activity in the United States, the world's largest economy, but some emerging market countries may face challenges as global interest rates rise.

The new outlook boosted the growth forecast for China, the world's second largest economy, by 0.3 percentage point to 6.5 percent this year. The IMF expects the Chinese government to providing further stimulus to the economy.

The outlook also boosted 2017 growth projections for Germany, Japan, Spain and Britain to reflect stronger-than-expected performances in the second half of last year. At the same time, the IMF lowered its forecasts for Italy, South Korea, India and Brazil, reflecting disappointing performances in the last half of 2016.

The IMF said that growth prospects in Latin America were being hurt by rising uncertainty about the outlook in Mexico, given Trump's statements overhauling trade relations between the United States and Mexico. about The IMF slashed its growth projections for Mexico by 0.6 percentage point in both 2017 and 2018 to 1.7 percent this year and 2 percent next year.

Obstfeld said that among the risks facing the global economy at the moment were "higher popular antipathy toward trade, immigration and multilateral engagement" among voters in the U.S. and Europe.



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Re: The Economic Data Thread 2.0

Post by Colonel Flagg » Mon Jan 16, 2017 5:19 pm

Prediction...this data will end up being about as useful as your election polls thread.


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Re: The Economic Data Thread 2.0

Post by audiophile » Mon Jan 16, 2017 6:10 pm

My yard sign poll was more accurate...


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Deleted User 8570

Re: The Economic Data Thread 2.0

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Mon Jan 16, 2017 6:48 pm

Colonel Flagg wrote:Prediction...this data will end up being about as useful as your election polls thread.
Except this isn't polling... just like there... if you don't like it nobody forced your hand to choose to click on it and nobody glued your eyes open and tied you up to stare at it. Get a life. I'm doing it to see how The Donald does with the economy. If you want to know what's actually going on and which way things are going you have to look at the data. No amount of cute talking points changes that fact.

Audio... you're right it was more accurate as to who won. Your numbers were hardly representative since he won by 10,000 statewide. I get what you mean though... I was just reporting what the Real Clear Politics site listed for polls. Interestingly it's likely the polls were right until the second Comey announcement. It's widely thought that the polls couldn't recover and show the Trump wave and lead change to Trump in the week after she had been cleared by the FBI from the laptop email find. I think October surprises usually happen earlier than October 30th... if it had then Trump would have been up by 1 or 2 in the 3 key states that got him in...



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