The Republicans Are Going to Win Big Nationally

[Honeyman]

With passing day, this is looking more and more like a larger-than-expected red wave may be coming.

I'm revising my House seat gain for Republicans up to +30 seats and I think Republicans will take a majority, albeit slim, in the Senate with either 51 or 52 seats. I think Oz is going to take Pennsylvania and I think Walker is now a coin flip to take Georgia.

I highly doubt the Republicans will take the senate. Oz still isn't leading in Pennsylvania... not ONCE yet. I still think we are looking at a likely voter makeup that may be undercounting Democrats enthusiasm. I'm going maybe a 10 seat gain still. Everything is narrowing to a tie... I don't see any reversing of direction in any substantial way yet. Just a lot of Republicans coming home after brutal primaries all over the place.

Hate to say it Rate, but I think Beemer is right. Republicans simply don't care. They all know Walker is a complete idiot and in no way qualified to be a senator, but they'll vote for him because of the R next to his name. They know Oz could give one fuck about the people of Pennsylvania, but want that seat. Masters is an idiot....but Arizonans?!? GOP will win the Senate.

For that matter Walker isn't leading yet either... nor is masters.... So they are just gonna magically wake up on Tuesday and win?
We have evidence of NARROWING... none of the three have LEADS anywhere. Its a H*** leap to figure they'll just win.

Just my feeling.

I get it… but all I’m saying is I want to see some evidence too… I could have been sold on Trump winning MICHIGAN last time based on yard signs and things. I could be sold on a GOP wave this time too based on the same. I get the “it’s a wash” feeling though honestly.

Believe me, I hope you're right and I'm wrong. You use math, data, analytics....and I'm just thinking with my gut. But there are so many fucking idiots in this country.....almost half would vote for Trump AGAIN! Just hard for me to have faith in the populous.

[Rate This]

With passing day, this is looking more and more like a larger-than-expected red wave may be coming.

I'm revising my House seat gain for Republicans up to +30 seats and I think Republicans will take a majority, albeit slim, in the Senate with either 51 or 52 seats. I think Oz is going to take Pennsylvania and I think Walker is now a coin flip to take Georgia.

I highly doubt the Republicans will take the senate. Oz still isn't leading in Pennsylvania... not ONCE yet. I still think we are looking at a likely voter makeup that may be undercounting Democrats enthusiasm. I'm going maybe a 10 seat gain still. Everything is narrowing to a tie... I don't see any reversing of direction in any substantial way yet. Just a lot of Republicans coming home after brutal primaries all over the place.

Hate to say it Rate, but I think Beemer is right. Republicans simply don't care. They all know Walker is a complete idiot and in no way qualified to be a senator, but they'll vote for him because of the R next to his name. They know Oz could give one fuck about the people of Pennsylvania, but want that seat. Masters is an idiot....but Arizonans?!? GOP will win the Senate.

For that matter Walker isn't leading yet either... nor is masters.... So they are just gonna magically wake up on Tuesday and win?
We have evidence of NARROWING... none of the three have LEADS anywhere. Its a H*** leap to figure they'll just win.

Just my feeling.

I get it… but all I’m saying is I want to see some evidence too… I could have been sold on Trump winning MICHIGAN last time based on yard signs and things. I could be sold on a GOP wave this time too based on the same. I get the “it’s a wash” feeling though honestly.

Believe me, I hope you're right and I'm wrong. You use math, data, analytics....and I'm just thinking with my gut. But there are so many fucking idiots in this country.....almost half would vote for Trump AGAIN! Just hard for me to have faith in the populous.

The populous… ya know… an old friend of mine once said one of the only things I need to know about life is that people are stupid. That has never let me down.

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

“It’s the economy, stupid….” is still true. Biden and Harris are not prosecuting corporate greed/capitalist pigs and want to gaslight the struggling economy. Voters don’t have forgiveness for that.

[bmw]

RT - you want evidence? Look at your grocery bill. Look at the price at the gas pump. Look at how many businesses are begging people to come work for them. Look at GDP growth (or lack thereof). Look at standardized test scores right now in our public schools. The party in power not only has no fixes for any of these problems - they're at least partially responsible for them, AND they're incapable of any kind of a course correction.

The Democrat party right now is not up to the task of running this country's government. And I'm betting on enough people realizing this.

[Bryce]

RT - you want evidence? Look at your grocery bill. Look at the price at the gas pump. Look at how many businesses are begging people to come work for them. Look at GDP growth (or lack thereof). Look at standardized test scores right now in our public schools. The party in power not only has no fixes for any of these problems - they're at least partially responsible for them, AND they're incapable of any kind of a course correction.

The Democrat party right now is not up to the task of running this country's government. And I'm betting on enough people realizing this.

As Danny B is fond of saying, "The Republican party is not a fix for all of our problems, but the Democrat party is the cause of most of them."

[Rate This]

RT - you want evidence? Look at your grocery bill. Look at the price at the gas pump. Look at how many businesses are begging people to come work for them. Look at GDP growth (or lack thereof). Look at standardized test scores right now in our public schools. The party in power not only has no fixes for any of these problems - they're at least partially responsible for them, AND they're incapable of any kind of a course correction.

The Democrat party right now is not up to the task of running this country's government. And I'm betting on enough people realizing this.

You know the type of evidence I’m talking about. This isn’t a normal midterm and I think you know that. You want to get emotional on me go ahead… I’m gonna stick to having cold detached data to back up my assertions. If it looks like they have a bunch of lead’s everywhere we can talk… but right now the Democrats still have leads in the major races 3 weeks out… something that if your assertion were true they would have absolutely no business having in a normal midterm.

[TC Talks]

Speaking of lawn signs, I think I've seen one Tutor lawn sign in the slackjawed part of my county. There is some support for local candidates but there's just not enthusiasm for any of the state Republican races.

I haven't seen a single of Bergman sign this year but plenty of his competitor, and this is in the mostly red part of my area.

Nate's new model is interesting.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/

[bmw]

RT - you want evidence? Look at your grocery bill. Look at the price at the gas pump. Look at how many businesses are begging people to come work for them. Look at GDP growth (or lack thereof). Look at standardized test scores right now in our public schools. The party in power not only has no fixes for any of these problems - they're at least partially responsible for them, AND they're incapable of any kind of a course correction.

The Democrat party right now is not up to the task of running this country's government. And I'm betting on enough people realizing this.

You know the type of evidence I’m talking about. This isn’t a normal midterm and I think you know that. You want to get emotional on me go ahead… I’m gonna stick to having cold detached data to back up my assertions. If it looks like they have a bunch of lead’s everywhere we can talk… but right now the Democrats still have leads in the major races 3 weeks out… something that if your assertion were true they would have absolutely no business having in a normal midterm.

I propose a friendly bet then. A forum pic bet. The winner gets to choose the loser's forum picture, which must be kept as your forum picture for 2 weeks.

Here's the bet:
I win if all of the following happens:
-Republicans take the House
-Republicans win the Senate race in NC
-Republicans win at least 2 of the 4 following Senate races: GA, PA, AZ, NV
-Republicans outperform the RCP polling average (by at least 0.1 percentage points) as it exists on election day in at least 3 of the 5 Senate races above (NV, PA, GA, NC, AZ)

You win if any of the above 4 propositions fails.

[Rate This]

RT - you want evidence? Look at your grocery bill. Look at the price at the gas pump. Look at how many businesses are begging people to come work for them. Look at GDP growth (or lack thereof). Look at standardized test scores right now in our public schools. The party in power not only has no fixes for any of these problems - they're at least partially responsible for them, AND they're incapable of any kind of a course correction.

The Democrat party right now is not up to the task of running this country's government. And I'm betting on enough people realizing this.

You know the type of evidence I’m talking about. This isn’t a normal midterm and I think you know that. You want to get emotional on me go ahead… I’m gonna stick to having cold detached data to back up my assertions. If it looks like they have a bunch of lead’s everywhere we can talk… but right now the Democrats still have leads in the major races 3 weeks out… something that if your assertion were true they would have absolutely no business having in a normal midterm.

I propose a friendly bet then. A forum pic bet. The winner gets to choose the loser's forum picture, which must be kept as your forum picture for 2 weeks.

Here's the bet:
I win if all of the following happens:
-Republicans take the House
-Republicans win the Senate race in NC
-Republicans win at least 2 of the 4 following Senate races: GA, PA, AZ, NV
-Republicans outperform the RCP polling average (by at least 0.1 percentage points) as it exists on election day in at least 3 of the 5 Senate races above (NV, PA, GA, NC, AZ)

You win if any of the above 4 propositions fails.

Ok deal. That also gives me some specific things to watch on Election Day.

[audiophile]

You do this at your own peril RT, LOL

[audiophile]

With passing day, this is looking more and more like a larger-than-expected red wave may be coming.

I'm revising my House seat gain for Republicans up to +30 seats and I think Republicans will take a majority, albeit slim, in the Senate with either 51 or 52 seats. I think Oz is going to take Pennsylvania and I think Walker is now a coin flip to take Georgia.

why do you think this is happening?

[Rate This]

You do this at your own peril RT, LOL

He’ll miss at least one of these. Not much in the country has changed since Kansas stunned everybody.

[Rate This]

With passing day, this is looking more and more like a larger-than-expected red wave may be coming.

I'm revising my House seat gain for Republicans up to +30 seats and I think Republicans will take a majority, albeit slim, in the Senate with either 51 or 52 seats. I think Oz is going to take Pennsylvania and I think Walker is now a coin flip to take Georgia.

why do you think this is happening?

He’ll chime in too but I think it’s mostly undecided Republicans finally coming home to their party… a lot of bruising primaries meant a lot of pissed off and disaffected people. Tightening was bound to happen.

[Honeyman]

Trump called Ted Cruz's wife ugly on national TV and he stood there and did not say a word to defend her, and later continued to grovel to him and support him, all in the name of the beloved GOP. This is the makeup of most Republicans who will sell their soul to vote for fools like Walker, Oz, Vance, etc. to get their party in power.

[bmw]

why do you think this is happening?

There's a laundry list of reasons, but I'll name a few that I think are factors:

-The overturning of Roe isn't the end of abortion "rights" in this country, and I think women are coming around to realizing that.
-Gas prices have been elevated for a while now, and despite a modest drop during the summer, are going back up with no end in sight.
-Inflation is a real problem that affects everyone. Biden's only response has been interest rate hikes, and at least thus far, those aren't having a visible impact.
-Supply chain shortages, while easing somewhat, aren't resolving as fast as most people would like.
-While not a primary reason, I think the escalating situation in Ukraine isn't helping.
-Crime is up in a lot of places, and the Democrat party isn't exactly the party that is tough on crime.

There's also factors in some specific races:
-PA - While Oz isn't particularly popular there, people are finally seeing just how bad Fetterman's cognitive state really is. Also, Fetterman is very far to the left politically - moreso than the average PA voter.
-GA - Walker did have a slight polling lead before the media unleashed its fury on him. I think the timing of that unleashing was too early and Walker is already recovering from it.
-AZ - The Democrat in that race had a really poor debate performance.
-NV - Vegas was very negatively affected by all of the Covid lockdowns that lasted way longer than they should have.
-The border situation is most certainly an issue in the states closest to the border.

Ultimately - the Democrat's biggest problem is that we're now seeing a prolonged period of the all-too-predictable consequences of the Democrats in power over-reacting to Covid, and those same politicians don't seem to have answers to any of this. RT says not much has changed since Roe was overturned - and I would suggest that that is precisely the problem.