I've gotten slow & sloppy in activating new accounts lately; sorry about that! All new acct registrations in the queue as of 9/23 at 7:15a ET have been activated. Want to share your favorite Buzzboard posts with your social media page readers? Now, there's an easy way to do it! Visit this page for instructions: viewtopic.php?f=39&t=47643

(Note: hover your mouse pointer near the upper right corner of this box and click the "x" to close it.)

Hurricane Florence

A place to talk about any topic on your mind (non-broadcasting related). General conversation.
bmw
Posts: 1521
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 1:02 am

Hurricane Florence

Post by bmw » Fri Sep 07, 2018 1:28 pm

I've been watching this storm for a while. Computer model runs have been anywhere from missing land completely to blasting the northeast or the Carolinas. As it stands now, landfall looks very likely next Wednesday or Thursday as a Cat 3 or 4 storm with barometric pressure readings below 28 inches.

Image



User avatar
MWmetalhead
Site Admin
Posts: 5760
Joined: Sun Oct 31, 2004 11:23 am

Re: Hurricane Florence

Post by MWmetalhead » Sat Sep 08, 2018 8:13 pm

Even though the European model (not the GFS) generally tends to have a better handle on extended term forecasting, my gut feeling is that the GFS is closer to the likely reality in this instance! As such, I'm glad you posted the GFS image.

I think the storm will either (i) curve and hit the outer banks of North Carolina from the south or (ii) curve northward or even northeastward long before the Carolinas are within striking distance.

Both Myrtle Beach, SC and Wilmington, NC have had a LOT of near misses during the past 20 years. Will this be "the one" that finally clobbers one or both towns? I think Myrtle Beach will be spared. I would be more nervous if I resided near Wilmington. I think even they will miss the right front quadrant, though, and possibly will miss out on most storm impacts.

Interestingly enough, the latest ECMWF run is taking the storm more to the north & east than the run from 12 hours ago. It now shows the storm making landfall very close to Wilmington, NC whereas the run from 12 hours ago was showing landfall almost halfway between Charleston and Myrtle Beach. The ECMWF also wants to keep the remnants of Florence over the Carolinas for at least three straight days! That could be devastating from a flooding standpoint.

If this storm does approach the coast or make landfall, I think it'll be a CAT 3 and not a CAT 4.

Last thought for now on this - every model run for every major hurricane since Hugo showing a landfall in South Carolina or Georgia has been wrong, and whenever a landfall has occurred in North Carolina, it generally has occurred across the outer banks. Fran (1996) was the last one to make landfall in close vicinity to Wilmington.


Radio's downfall has been under-investing in its core competency and becoming distracted by delusions of grandeur by thinking development of a half-assed national digital strategy will somehow put it on par with the Facebooks and Googles of the world.

bmw
Posts: 1521
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 1:02 am

Re: Hurricane Florence

Post by bmw » Sat Sep 08, 2018 9:37 pm

The latest GFS run, if it were to turn out to be accurate, would be a MAJOR DISASTER for the Carolinas. Large area of 2-3 feet of rain and nearly 5 days of landfall as it meanders.

Image



User avatar
MWmetalhead
Site Admin
Posts: 5760
Joined: Sun Oct 31, 2004 11:23 am

Re: Hurricane Florence

Post by MWmetalhead » Sat Sep 08, 2018 9:40 pm

Indeed. Could mean perilous flooding for Hampton Roads, VA, Raleigh-Durham and Greenville-New Bern. Interestingly, the GFS keeps almost all of the rainfall away from Charlotte. The ECMWF takes the rainfall farther west - encompassing Charlotte.


Radio's downfall has been under-investing in its core competency and becoming distracted by delusions of grandeur by thinking development of a half-assed national digital strategy will somehow put it on par with the Facebooks and Googles of the world.

bmw
Posts: 1521
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 1:02 am

Re: Hurricane Florence

Post by bmw » Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:53 pm

Turned on the Weather Channel today for the first time since this storm started developing, and their coverage doesn't mirror the GFS computer models at all. They're predicting a Wed night/Thur morning landfall in the Carolinas and the storm moving inland from there and quickly dissipating with their "cone" nowhere close to matching the GFS, which the latest run looks very similar to the gif image I posted above. The latest run has the eye narrowly missing land on Friday morning and the looping around back to the east and south and strengthening to a very potent storm to maybe make actual landfall Sunday night or Monday morning, then heading south through Georgia before eventually moving offshore only to possibly bring a second round of heavy rain to the Carolinas as late as Sunday, September 23.

I think they're doing a disservice to the public by not at least showing this as a potential scenario.



User avatar
MWmetalhead
Site Admin
Posts: 5760
Joined: Sun Oct 31, 2004 11:23 am

Re: Hurricane Florence

Post by MWmetalhead » Mon Sep 10, 2018 7:59 pm

I agree that not enough commentary is being paid to alternate scenarios. There is an intense focus on the North Carolina coastline.

TWC rightfully is highlighting a catastrophic flooding risk, but the on-air remarks I'm hearing from their forecasters suggest only the eastern half of North Carolina up through central & eastern VA are at risk. I think South Carolina definitely should not let its guard down. Ditto for the greater Charlotte area. I also think the Chesapeake Bay area should not let its guard down.

If the high pressure ridge near Bermuda weakens sooner than most models are currently forecasting, this thing could indeed slow down dramatically before a landfall occurs and might not even make landfall. Such a scenario occurred with a CAT 3 / 4 storm that was making a b-line for Virginia Beach about 20 years ago. The coastline saw little more than gusty winds and dangerous rip currents from that storm. The storm was moving almost due west, stalled, and then began migrating slowly eastward out into the open waters of the Atlantic.

I'm going to continue to be a contrarian and say there's a 50/50 chance this thing produces no significant impact to any sizable city along the eastern seaboard. As I said Sunday, I could see this thing curling as it approaches the coast, brush Cape Hatteras, and then move northeastward back out to sea. I think a greater number of individual model runs will come up with a similar solution as time moves along.

At the moment, TWC and the National Hurricane Center seem to think a Thursday evening landfall is likely, with hurricane force winds along the immediate coast possible as soon as the pre-dawn hours of Thursday morning.


Radio's downfall has been under-investing in its core competency and becoming distracted by delusions of grandeur by thinking development of a half-assed national digital strategy will somehow put it on par with the Facebooks and Googles of the world.

906XJ
Posts: 1007
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2017 5:19 am

Re: Hurricane Florence

Post by 906XJ » Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:17 pm

I'm thinking an eye wall regeneration event will weaken the storm before landfall. I mean dang... this thing has been cranking for a long time... I feel like it will implode and blow out rapidly.

At least I hope it will...



User avatar
Turkeytop
Posts: 3854
Joined: Mon Aug 16, 2010 9:27 pm

Re: Hurricane Florence

Post by Turkeytop » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:11 am

These hurricanes always drift hesitantly out on the ocean for days and days, before finally making landfall. But once they do make landfall, it seems like, within 24 hours, they're up here dumping rain all over us.



NS8401
Posts: 8592
Joined: Fri Mar 05, 2010 9:06 pm

Re: Hurricane Florence

Post by NS8401 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:25 am

Turkeytop wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:11 am
These hurricanes always drift hesitantly out on the ocean for days and days, before finally making landfall. But once they do make landfall, it seems like, within 24 hours, they're up here dumping rain all over us.
They heard you were having a parade...



User avatar
MWmetalhead
Site Admin
Posts: 5760
Joined: Sun Oct 31, 2004 11:23 am

Re: Hurricane Florence

Post by MWmetalhead » Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:19 pm

Dry air is getting into the circulation. Storm has been gradually looking more ragged on the satellite imagery as the day has moved along. It's barely hanging onto CAT 3 status.

This will likely be a CAT 2 and a heavy rainmaker. Storm surge will be dangerous but nothing devastating.


Radio's downfall has been under-investing in its core competency and becoming distracted by delusions of grandeur by thinking development of a half-assed national digital strategy will somehow put it on par with the Facebooks and Googles of the world.

bmw
Posts: 1521
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 1:02 am

Re: Hurricane Florence

Post by bmw » Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:56 pm

The GFS models show it re-organizing and re-strengthening over the next 24 hours back to high-end cat 3 or low-end cat 4. Not exactly out of the woods yet from a potentially devastating storm surge, but hoping for the best.



NS8401
Posts: 8592
Joined: Fri Mar 05, 2010 9:06 pm

Re: Hurricane Florence

Post by NS8401 » Thu Sep 13, 2018 12:25 am

Downgraded to a Cat 2 at Midnight...



User avatar
TheForce
Posts: 993
Joined: Sat Mar 31, 2007 6:12 pm

Re: Hurricane Florence

Post by TheForce » Thu Sep 13, 2018 6:48 am

Cat 2 but the predicted impact hasn't changed. The Weather Channel has been stressing this. Still gonna get the same rains, surges, and destruction.



User avatar
audiophile
Posts: 5317
Joined: Sat Dec 04, 2004 9:21 pm
Location: Between 88 and 108 MHz.

Re: Hurricane Florence

Post by audiophile » Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:16 am

I'm looking at wind speeds on radar and the top speed is 83 kts.


Ask not what your country can do FOR you; ask what they are about to do TO YOU!!

User avatar
TC Talks
Posts: 2006
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2005 2:41 am
Location: Moderator of Reason

Re: Hurricane Florence

Post by TC Talks » Thu Sep 13, 2018 9:41 pm

Over a FOOT of rain and it's still 85 miles offshore.
HAPPENING NOW
As of early this evening, Florence's eye was located about 85 miles east-southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina, crawling west-northwestward at just 5 mph.

Wind gusts have reached as high as 106 mph at Cape Lookout, North Carolina while a 105 mph gust was also reported at Fort Macon, North Carolina recently.

The highest sustained wind so far was reported in Cape Lookout with a sustained wind of 83 mph.

Six feet of storm surge is flooding western Pamlico Sound, including the city of New Bern.

Extreme rainfall is already occurring in eastern North Carolina. Atlantic Beach, which is a barrier island just south of Morehead City, has measured 12.73 inches of rainfall through mid-evening.


(C) 2018 TC Talks. Assembled in U.S.A.

User avatar
audiophile
Posts: 5317
Joined: Sat Dec 04, 2004 9:21 pm
Location: Between 88 and 108 MHz.

Re: Hurricane Florence

Post by audiophile » Fri Sep 14, 2018 6:40 am

NWS said 7-11 inches at 5:24am this morning. The radar estimates said 10.4" max.


Ask not what your country can do FOR you; ask what they are about to do TO YOU!!

User avatar
MWmetalhead
Site Admin
Posts: 5760
Joined: Sun Oct 31, 2004 11:23 am

Re: Hurricane Florence

Post by MWmetalhead » Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:01 am

Only areas with bad wind damage will be along the immediate coast. Intensity is not remotely as strong as what was being forecast 72 hours ago.

The worst storm surge will be from Carolina Beach northward.

N. Myrtle Beach will be largely spared.

I guess Raleigh won't be seeing 20+ inches of rain after all. Initial rainfall forecasts by location were pretty bad.


Radio's downfall has been under-investing in its core competency and becoming distracted by delusions of grandeur by thinking development of a half-assed national digital strategy will somehow put it on par with the Facebooks and Googles of the world.

906XJ
Posts: 1007
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2017 5:19 am

Re: Hurricane Florence

Post by 906XJ » Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:05 am

I wonder if Home Depot paid the Weather Channel types to spread panic, or if weather people are just this inept.



User avatar
MWmetalhead
Site Admin
Posts: 5760
Joined: Sun Oct 31, 2004 11:23 am

Re: Hurricane Florence

Post by MWmetalhead » Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:27 am

Most of Home Depot's business will come after the storm.

The 20 to 30 inch rain predictions are being realized, but not as far inland as initially predicted. New Bern, NC is seeing some of the worst surge related flooding so far.


Radio's downfall has been under-investing in its core competency and becoming distracted by delusions of grandeur by thinking development of a half-assed national digital strategy will somehow put it on par with the Facebooks and Googles of the world.

bmw
Posts: 1521
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 1:02 am

Re: Hurricane Florence

Post by bmw » Fri Sep 14, 2018 11:22 am

The problem was not with the hype but rather with the computer modeling - the media was just going off of what the computers were predicting. The question I have is how did all the computer models get this one sooooooo wrong. Even as I watched the 6-hour updates from the GFS runs over the past few days, each run tried to predict the storm to re-strengthen, but each subsequent update kept bringing the air pressure up and up and up.

It seems like with the exception of Katrina that over the past 20 years that just about every prediction of a Cat 3+ hurricane causing catastrophic damage to the east coast has been overblown. It is no wonder so many people chose to ride out this storm. And this particular one DID look like it was going to be a monster.

All that said, lives were undoubtedly saved by the quick weakening of this storm.

EDIT - one thing that did bug me was people on TWC the past few days going out of their way to tell viewers to ignore the fact that the storm is down to a Cat 3 and then 2 and then 1. They insisted that the category was completely irrelevant. While I get that they were doing it for public safety, what they were saying was just plain factually wrong. There IS a big difference between a Cat 4 and a Cat 1 or 2 storm and the damage the storm will cause. To tell people that even though the storm is substantially weaker that it will still be just as dangerous and then have that not pan out is just feeding into the boy who cried wolf and could cost lives in the future when the big one DOES hit and people ignore the warnings because of this.



Post Reply Previous topicNext topic