Acceptable registrations in the queue through March 16 at 11:00a ET have now been activated. Enjoy! -M.W.

Terms of Use have been amended effective October 6, 2019. Make sure you are aware of the new rules! Please visit this thread for details: https://www.mibuzzboard.com/phpBB3/view ... 16&t=48619

I fully support the Trump immigration proposal

Debate and discussion of current events and political issues across the U.S. and throughout the World. Be forewarned -- this forum is NOT for the intellectually weak or those of you with thin skins. Don't come crying to me if you become the subject of ridicule. **Board Administrator reserves the right to revoke posting privileges based on my sole discretion**
User avatar
Lester The Nightfly
Posts: 1729
Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2005 6:19 pm

Re: I fully support the Trump immigration proposal

Post by Lester The Nightfly » Sat Jan 19, 2019 8:45 pm

bmw wrote:
Sat Jan 19, 2019 6:25 pm
Lester The Nightfly wrote:
Sat Jan 19, 2019 5:53 pm
How different is Trump's proposal than what the Dem's brought to Congress not that long ago and Repubs shot down? Not much that I can see.
So why aren't the dems 100% onboard?
Probably because Trump refuses to drop the ridiculous requirement for THE WALL™, or have you not been paying attention?



Deleted User 8570

Re: I fully support the Trump immigration proposal

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Sun Jan 20, 2019 3:13 am

Meanwhile, in McAllen Texas where Trump was on January 10th the consensus is:

What crisis?:
https://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-te ... story.html



User avatar
MWmetalhead
Site Admin
Posts: 11873
Joined: Sun Oct 31, 2004 11:23 am

Re: I fully support the Trump immigration proposal

Post by MWmetalhead » Sun Jan 20, 2019 9:00 am

Martha Radditz (sp?) on ABC News has an interesting report regarding the border situation this morning. All of you 'crisis' deniers should watch it.
What the President did today was pretty damn smart. he addressed the nation and laid out a workable plan to get the government back up and running. If the Democrats thumb their nose at it then it becomes their shutdown as they didn't accept the compromise.
Agree with you 100%, zzand.

The public needs to ask themselves this: What's more important? Denying the wall (even though border officials are pleading for an improved physical barrier at certain border hot spots) or reopening the government?

If the Dems in Congress refuse to act, I think Trump absolutely needs to go the national emergency route.



Deleted User 8570

Re: I fully support the Trump immigration proposal

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Sun Jan 20, 2019 10:39 am

MWmetalhead wrote:
Sun Jan 20, 2019 9:00 am
Martha Radditz (sp?) on ABC News has an interesting report regarding the border situation this morning. All of you 'crisis' deniers should watch it.
What the President did today was pretty damn smart. he addressed the nation and laid out a workable plan to get the government back up and running. If the Democrats thumb their nose at it then it becomes their shutdown as they didn't accept the compromise.
Agree with you 100%, zzand.

The public needs to ask themselves this: What's more important? Denying the wall (even though border officials are pleading for an improved physical barrier at certain border hot spots) or reopening the government?

If the Dems in Congress refuse to act, I think Trump absolutely needs to go the national emergency route.
Men and technology is what they are pleading for... not a wall.

Trump offered no new proposals here... it’s recycled from his last speech and a proposal early on in the shutdown. There is no compromise here at all. The Democrats won’t budge until he caves and reopens the government which public pressure will force him to act upon. Then they want to talk border security. This was a nothing burger.



User avatar
MWmetalhead
Site Admin
Posts: 11873
Joined: Sun Oct 31, 2004 11:23 am

Re: I fully support the Trump immigration proposal

Post by MWmetalhead » Sun Jan 20, 2019 11:06 am

I have some experience in the area of negotiating. I do it on a regular basis as part of my job. Granted, I'm not dealing with matters of national security or billions in government spending. But I deal with debtor attorneys, other financial institutions, etc. regularly on matters involving multi-million dollar loan transactions.

There's no way in hell Trump or anyone else in similar position is going to toss ALL of their bargaining leverage down the shitter in the hopes that the "other side" through the goodness of their hearts will try to meet somewhere in the middle.

Your side's leaders have said repeatedly that they won't fund a wall and want permanent CITIZENSHIP (not just legal status) for Dreamers and DACA folks.

In other words, their demands are as follows:
- Reopen the government (even though we won't give you a damn thing you want in exchange for doing so)
- "Bargain" with us, even though we'll only accept a deal that gives us 90%+ of the things we want and almost none of the things you want.

The Dem congressional mouthpieces are acting in bad faith. Reopening the government - no strings attached - would be a stupid move on Trump's part. Why? Because what would happen is we'd be in the exact same place again 90 days from now.

I would give the Dems two weeks to come to the table, if I were the White House. If they refuse, I'd declare a national emergency and reopen the government concurrently.

To be clear, I am not suggesting at all the White House should be unopen to making modifications to yesterday's proposal. One potential area of further compromise, for example, could be the three-year grace period. Maybe it should be five years. Maybe aspects of the legal immigration process could be examined. Maybe humanitarian aid to suffering citizens in Central America could be part of a final deal. However, the "wall" component should be absolutely non-negotiable.



bmw
Posts: 6727
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 1:02 am

Re: I fully support the Trump immigration proposal

Post by bmw » Sun Jan 20, 2019 11:48 am

NS - I have to again point out that Democrats are behaving like they control everything, when in reality all they control is the House. Republicans control the Senate and the executive branch. And with their solid 5-4 majority on the Supreme Court, any challenge to a declaration of national emergency has a high chance of being shot down.

Part of negotiating is knowing how much leverage you have, and right now, democrats don't have nearly as much as they're acting like they have. This is what happens when you've been completely out of power for two years and then you get a shred of it back - suddenly you think you run everything.

Bottom line is that Trump has the upper-hand in the negotiations, and I predict that he has made his final offer. I'm not sure I agree with MW's idea of announcing to the dems that they have 2 weeks or else a national emergency will be declared - doing so would almost certainly close the door to any possible negotiations and dems would immediately lawyer up and shift their focus to challenging a national emergency. That, and Trump has always said he's not one to set deadlines - he acts when he believes the time is right to act. I say let this play out and see if public opinion shifts at all over the next week or if any dems show signs of cracking (Pelosi isn't the end-all, be-all of the democrat party, btw)



User avatar
Lester The Nightfly
Posts: 1729
Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2005 6:19 pm

Re: I fully support the Trump immigration proposal

Post by Lester The Nightfly » Sun Jan 20, 2019 2:05 pm

MWmetalhead wrote:
Sun Jan 20, 2019 11:06 am
I have some experience in the area of negotiating. I do it on a regular basis as part of my job. Granted, I'm not dealing with matters of national security or billions in government spending. But I deal with debtor attorneys, other financial institutions, etc. regularly on matters involving multi-million dollar loan transactions.

There's no way in hell Trump or anyone else in similar position is going to toss ALL of their bargaining leverage down the shitter in the hopes that the "other side" through the goodness of their hearts will try to meet somewhere in the middle.

Your side's leaders have said repeatedly that they won't fund a wall and want permanent CITIZENSHIP (not just legal status) for Dreamers and DACA folks.

In other words, their demands are as follows:
- Reopen the government (even though we won't give you a damn thing you want in exchange for doing so)
- "Bargain" with us, even though we'll only accept a deal that gives us 90%+ of the things we want and almost none of the things you want.

The Dem congressional mouthpieces are acting in bad faith. Reopening the government - no strings attached - would be a stupid move on Trump's part. Why? Because what would happen is we'd be in the exact same place again 90 days from now.

I would give the Dems two weeks to come to the table, if I were the White House. If they refuse, I'd declare a national emergency and reopen the government concurrently.

To be clear, I am not suggesting at all the White House should be unopen to making modifications to yesterday's proposal. One potential area of further compromise, for example, could be the three-year grace period. Maybe it should be five years. Maybe aspects of the legal immigration process could be examined. Maybe humanitarian aid to suffering citizens in Central America could be part of a final deal. However, the "wall" component should be absolutely non-negotiable.
I'm curious how you deal with someone who enters negotiations as an unreliable party? Do you employ additional safeguards in the settlement to insure the terms are met? Start unrealistically high and work down to conditions you know the other party can demonstratively achieve?

The reason I ask is I think the reticence on the part of Pelosi is that Trump will somehow worm his way out of whatever agreement is made, and for good reason. He did so a couple of weeks ago to his own party after getting his head filled with mush from Fox News (and oh by the way another person he apparently listens to, Ann Coulter, just blasted him today for putting into play the DACA component in his latest offer). Even the nature of THE WALL™ itself seems to change depending on Trump's mood. Point being, I can't blame Pelosi not wanting to get burned like a New Jersey drywall contractor on a Trump property.

It's too bad because (and I suspect you see it in your work) how many otherwise good and useful agreements and settlements never come to pass because one of the parties just can't help but be a dick about getting there.



bmw
Posts: 6727
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 1:02 am

Re: I fully support the Trump immigration proposal

Post by bmw » Sun Jan 20, 2019 3:52 pm

So are you suggesting that if Pelosi thought Trump was for real on his proposal and trusted that he'd follow through by signing into law legislation which reflects the proposal he made that she might be onboard?

LOL that's the funniest thing I've read on here in some time. :lol

Also, Peolosi is hardly "reticent" about where she stands on this. Before Trump even spoke, she already shot down his proposal.

:rollin Sorry I'm still laughing at the idea that if democrats just trusted Trump to do what he says he's going to do that they'd suddenly be in the mood to work with him. You're really, really stretching here. Trump beat their anointed one, Hillary Clinton, when he wasn't supposed to, and as such to this day they view him as illegitimate (and that's not even including their delusions that Russia somehow handed him the election). And for Nancy, her first order of business as Speaker of the House, when democrats just took control, sure as hell isn't going to be approving funding for Trump's wall.



User avatar
MWmetalhead
Site Admin
Posts: 11873
Joined: Sun Oct 31, 2004 11:23 am

Re: I fully support the Trump immigration proposal

Post by MWmetalhead » Sun Jan 20, 2019 4:09 pm

. I'm not sure I agree with MW's idea of announcing to the dems that they have 2 weeks or else a national emergency will be declared -
No, I said give them two weeks to come to the table. I did not mean he should publicly announce that he's setting a two week deadline. Sorry if I wasn't clear.

You're absolutely right; he shouldn't reveal his hand.
I'm curious how you deal with someone who enters negotiations as an unreliable party? Do you employ additional safeguards in the settlement to insure the terms are met? Start unrealistically high and work down to conditions you know the other party can demonstratively achieve?
Depends on the circumstances. Different circumstances mean different possible outcomes based on the strategy selected.

Obviously, we don't like to remain in a lending arrangement with a dishonest and defaulting borrower if there is any opportunity to exit. If there is an ability for them to refinance, we'd generally ask them to do that first. Option #2 is generally to ask them to sell their business (and giving them a fractional slice of the proceeds for being cooperative, even if prospective proceeds are highly unlikely to make us whole). Option #3 - when all else fails - is to foreclose on assets and run a forced liquidation.

If we cannot trust management and/or ownership, then usually #1 or #2 would come with the added condition of a Chief Restructuring Officer being appointed to oversee things.

When you threaten a borrower with legal action or foreclosure of assets, they often sit up straight and start acting reasonably. On business loan transactions where personal guaranties exist, the range of options is a bit broader than what I describe above. The transactions I manage almost never have personal guaranties in place, though, since ownership of my borrowers usually consists of hedge funds, private investors, etc.

If a debtor in default or legal counsel representing a debtor in default asked us dismiss all pending legal action as an upfront condition of entering negotiations for a possible settlement, we'd tell them to pound sand (in a professional way). We'd consider such a request to be absurd. Yet, that's analogous to what Pelosi is asking Trump to do!

In any adversarial situation, from a negotiating standpoint, we generally include things in any initial proposal that we view as "gravy" or nice-to-have (but not "must have") that we can toss out if that's what's required to get a debtor to come to a mutually acceptable agreement with us.



User avatar
Lester The Nightfly
Posts: 1729
Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2005 6:19 pm

Re: I fully support the Trump immigration proposal

Post by Lester The Nightfly » Sun Jan 20, 2019 7:38 pm

MWmetalhead wrote:
Sun Jan 20, 2019 4:09 pm
If a debtor in default or legal counsel representing a debtor in default asked us dismiss all pending legal action as an upfront condition of entering negotiations for a possible settlement, we'd tell them to pound sand (in a professional way). We'd consider such a request to be absurd. Yet, that's analogous to what Pelosi is asking Trump to do!
I don't know that that's what Pelosi is doing in so much that she's offered additional funding for border security and personnel. Just not THE WALL™.

At this point we can't even be sure Trump will stand behind his latest proposal (if in fact making a pronouncement from a lectern can even be considered a 'proposal'). It is inconceivable that Trump could ask McConnell to have the Senate draft legislation that mirrors Trump's proposal and go from there? Unorthodox perhaps, but what about this situation isn't? At least Pelosi could be relatively sure that Trump and/or McConnell wouldn't attempt to change the terms at the last minute (or if they did, there would be some accountability leveled at those who move the goal-posts).

Maybe it just doesn't matter. THE WALL™ is bedrock in Trump's mind regardless of its lack of merits. I don't think he really cares he's tanking the country to get it. Congratulations.

BTW - Thanks for sharing a little inside baseball about your business. Never a dull moment huh?



User avatar
Turkeytop
Posts: 8854
Joined: Mon Aug 16, 2010 9:27 pm

Re: I fully support the Trump immigration proposal

Post by Turkeytop » Sun Jan 20, 2019 8:53 pm

bmw wrote:
Sat Jan 19, 2019 6:35 pm
NS8401 wrote:
Sat Jan 19, 2019 6:19 pm
The National Emergency thing almost certainly wouldn’t pass muster.
I disagree. See here: https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/2808
and here: https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/33/2293

Basically, if a wall can be deemed "essential to the national defense" then it would pass muster. Remember, Courts typically give the President very broad powers in areas of national defense.
If he plays the National Emergency card, the wall will never be built. Clearly there is no emergency and everyone, including Trump, knows it.

Trump has, at best, two more years in office. Two years from now, there wouldn't yet be shovels in the ground.

The next President, Dem, or Rep would immediately rescind the emergency order.


I started out with nothing and I still have most of it.

Deleted User 4520

Re: I fully support the Trump immigration proposal

Post by Deleted User 4520 » Sun Jan 20, 2019 9:14 pm

It was sad when Trump couldn't get the wall done when republicans controlled both the house and senate. Now it's an uphill battle. Democrats in the past have been for a wall of sorts but now only object because they hate Trump. How is this serving the American people? These people work for US, and as far as I'm concerned they are not doing their jobs and should be fired. You know damn well if we weren't doing our jobs we'd get our asses fired.



Deleted User 8570

Re: I fully support the Trump immigration proposal

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Mon Jan 21, 2019 1:17 am

bmw wrote:
Sun Jan 20, 2019 11:48 am
NS - I have to again point out that Democrats are behaving like they control everything, when in reality all they control is the House. Republicans control the Senate and the executive branch. And with their solid 5-4 majority on the Supreme Court, any challenge to a declaration of national emergency has a high chance of being shot down.

Part of negotiating is knowing how much leverage you have, and right now, democrats don't have nearly as much as they're acting like they have. This is what happens when you've been completely out of power for two years and then you get a shred of it back - suddenly you think you run everything.

Bottom line is that Trump has the upper-hand in the negotiations, and I predict that he has made his final offer. I'm not sure I agree with MW's idea of announcing to the dems that they have 2 weeks or else a national emergency will be declared - doing so would almost certainly close the door to any possible negotiations and dems would immediately lawyer up and shift their focus to challenging a national emergency. That, and Trump has always said he's not one to set deadlines - he acts when he believes the time is right to act. I say let this play out and see if public opinion shifts at all over the next week or if any dems show signs of cracking (Pelosi isn't the end-all, be-all of the democrat party, btw)
Trump does not have the upper hand... not at all. The Democrats have public opinion against the wall on their side. They have trump under water around 60-40 approval wise. A majority don’t support the wall. A 60-30 majority blame Trump for the shutdown (ok that one was on Trump for being a terrible strategist and owning it preemptively for no good reason). The Democrats are supposing (probably correctly) that if they sit and wait Trump out the mounting pressure on him to reopen the government that the public feels he is holding hostage will be too great and he will crack and capitulate to them. Their base will kill them if they do anything to allow a wall same as Trumps base without one. If he decides to go the national emergency route they figure given that a 60-40 majority don’t want the wall built he will do more political harm than good to himself and they’d be happy with that too. He’d get his wall and then be crushed in 2020 worse than he probably already will. There isn’t much Trump can do to win in this game... if the public doesn’t suddenly blame the Democrats or love the wall then he is screwed. End of story. They had their golden opportunity before January 3rd... the GOP blew it.

As for the Senate... you realize it has a small state bias that presently causes Republican states to be vastly overrepresented relative to population vis a vis the blue states right? So 30% or so of the population is essentially running 3/4 of the government... Trump was elected by a minority... the GOP represents a minority of the people with a majority in the senate and the Supreme Court is majority GOP due to some good fortune on their part and a little sausage making from McConnell...

With basically everything against you guys you’d think there would be some sort of pivot or hitting the brakes before the cliff or something... but towards the edge you go...



User avatar
MWmetalhead
Site Admin
Posts: 11873
Joined: Sun Oct 31, 2004 11:23 am

Re: I fully support the Trump immigration proposal

Post by MWmetalhead » Mon Jan 21, 2019 10:28 am

The Democrats will overplay their hand, just like they did on Justice Kavanaugh and just like they did on Obamacare reform.
The Democrats are supposing (probably correctly) that if they sit and wait Trump out the mounting pressure on him to reopen the government that the public feels he is holding hostage will be too great and he will crack and capitulate to them.
Idiotic thinking on their part, He won't capitulate; he'll declare a national emergency. Then, the Dems will get NOTHING that they want with regard to the Dreamers, family reunification procedures, etc.
If he decides to go the national emergency route they figure given that a 60-40 majority don’t want the wall built he will do more political harm than good to himself and they’d be happy with that too.
I disagree that the mere action of declaring an emergency to get the wall built will tick of swing voters like you are projecting. This is a flashpoint issue with liberals (who would never vote to reelect Trump in a million years anyway) and with conservatives (who by & large want the wall!).
He’d get his wall and then be crushed in 2020 worse than he probably already will. There isn’t much Trump can do to win in this game... if the public doesn’t suddenly blame the Democrats or love the wall then he is screwed. End of story. They had their golden opportunity before January 3rd... the GOP blew it.
He can win by making a reasonable proposal (just as he did on Saturday), giving the Dems a chance to cooperate, and then if they refuse to cooperate, concurrently declaring an emergency and reopening the government. Public opinion would be split pretty close to 50/50 under such a scenario. Politically speaking, it'd be a "push."



bmw
Posts: 6727
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 1:02 am

Re: I fully support the Trump immigration proposal

Post by bmw » Mon Jan 21, 2019 10:36 am

NS - public opinion on this issue is largely irrelevant to who has the upper hand on this issue, just as I pointed out in here on the Obamacare issue. The public didn't want Obamacare, but democrats narrowly (and by narrowly, I mean by a single vote) had the upper hand, and they got it passed.

Granted, republicans don't have the actual votes right now to get a wall done, but they do hold the executive branch as well as enough support (for the foreseeable future) to prevent any override of Trump's veto of the spending bill.

Trump already said the shutdown might last for years. He's in this for the long haul, and democrats obviously haven't figured that out yet.



Post Reply Previous topicNext topic