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It took 12 years, but Jerry nailed it... CC is going down.

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TC Talks
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It took 12 years, but Jerry nailed it... CC is going down.

Post by TC Talks » Fri Mar 03, 2017 2:14 am

Jerry Del Colliano has predicted Clear Channel's demise since the his fist fight with Randy. His dreams are finally coming true.
The radio business is a relic of a simpler time in corporate America. In the middle of the 20th century, the industry was heavily regulated and strictly local. No company could own more than 40 stations total and no more than two AM and two FM stations per market. Radio operators were pillars in local charities and service clubs, much like the car dealers who bought H*** blocks of radio advertising.
http://variety.com/2017/biz/features/bo ... 201998074/

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Last edited by TC Talks on Fri Mar 03, 2017 8:36 am, edited 1 time in total.


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Re: It took 12 years, but Jerry nailed it... CC is going down.

Post by audiophile » Fri Mar 03, 2017 6:13 am

Nailed it? LOL. I agree that 2019 looks very bleak. We shall see.

Meanwhile Cumulus stock is at 62 cents, that's after and 8:1 reverse split in October. So stock withOUT the split would be only 7.75 cents in today's figures.

Ouch!


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Re: It took 12 years, but Jerry nailed it... CC is going down.

Post by TheForce » Fri Mar 03, 2017 7:03 am

What does all this mean for the iHeart Radio app? It's among my favorite app! Gives me an alternative to the local FM dial.



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Re: It took 12 years, but Jerry nailed it... CC is going down.

Post by TC Talks » Fri Mar 03, 2017 8:37 am

McBain capital owns iHeartRadio. If the app has any value they will find a buyer.


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Re: It took 12 years, but Jerry nailed it... CC is going down.

Post by MWmetalhead » Fri Mar 03, 2017 5:54 pm

I could see a spin-off or divestiture of one or more divisions within iFart occurring - a la Clear Channel Outdoor.

One scenario: the digital side of the company is either sold or spun off into its own publicly traded company. Premiere Networks could see a similar fate.

An in-court proceeding seems inevitable at this point, but I strongly doubt we're talking about a fire sale type liquidation here.

From a radio station license point of view, "new" iFart will probably look a lot like "old" iFart, except it will have substantially less in the way of funded debt on the balance sheet. Existing equity holders will be royally screwed; they'll be left with nothing. Equity in the "new" iFart will likely be held by a consortium of existing iFart lenders + any white knight who wishes to contribute new capital as part of the in-court recapitalization process.

The pick the carcass apart into a million itty-bitty pieces scenario and splitting the assets a gazillion different ways to sell them to different buyers simply isn't going to happen. Folks who think that way have zero familiarity with how bankruptcy normally works for large corporate concerns. Radio is still a viable business. iFart still owns a LOT of attractive assets. This is strictly a debt load problem.

P.S....I'm actually contemplating buying a little bit of Cume-u-Lust stock just for grins.


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Re: It took 12 years, but Jerry nailed it... CC is going down.

Post by MWmetalhead » Sat Mar 25, 2017 1:39 pm

If iFart pulls this off, they will avoid bankruptcy for at least a few more years:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/24/busi ... .html?_r=1

https://www.thestreet.com/story/1404768 ... yptr=yahoo

What's interesting here is that iFart's existing lenders are being offered an opportunity to acquire 49% of iFart's 90% stake in Clear Channel Outdoor, provided certain tender hurdles are cleared.

I actually think there is a better than even money chance that iFart pulls this off successfully.

This is all about kicking the can down the road instead of ensuring long-term financial solvency.


Memo to 106.7: Twenty-One Pilots, Imagine Dragons, FUN and Fall Out Boy all S-U-C-K!!! Stop playing those shitty (boy) bands, and maybe you'll end your streak of piss poor ratings!

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Re: It took 12 years, but Jerry nailed it... CC is going down.

Post by TC Talks » Sun Mar 26, 2017 9:02 am

That article made my head hurt, but kicking the can down the road is what Bain does. They have already realized their​ profit from the deal a long time ago. I like how they made themselves more stable and walk out with more equity security then they have today. This is what radio is all about these days....

What baffles me and has for year: Why did the lenders at every level extend so much as to offer $20 billion to a company that never would have the capacity to satisfy the notes?


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Re: It took 12 years, but Jerry nailed it... CC is going down.

Post by MWmetalhead » Sun Mar 26, 2017 5:50 pm

Here is a timeline of Clear Channel / iFart's ratio of consolidated secured debt, net of cash, to consolidated EBITDA (all figures are as of the fiscal year end and measured on a trailing four quarters basis):

2010 = 6.7
2011 = 6.9
2012 = 5.9 (note - $2.1 billion in new subordinated unsecured notes were issued to effectuate repayment of $2.1 billion in senior secured indebtedness)
2013 = 6.3
2014 = 6.3
2015 = 6.5
2016 = 6.6

Remember, the above ratio only considers senior SECURED indebtedness, net of cash on hand. If we were to look at total leverage, the ratios would be even worse.

Now, let's look at three more statistics - Revenue, Consolidated EBITDA and Total Asset Value:
-Revenue = $5.87 billion in 2010 vs. $6.27 billion in 2016
-Consolidated EBITDA = $1.8 billion in 2010 vs. $1.845 billion in 2016
-Total Asset Value = $17.48 billion at 12-31-10 vs. $12.86 billion at 12-31-16

Remember, in 2010, we were just starting to come out of one the worst economic recession since the Great Depression! Even so, the differential in revenue when comparing 2016 to 2010 only approximates the rate of inflation during that same period.

In looking at the three most recent fiscal years, the company had negative cash flow from operations in both 2015 & 2016. This means the company has needed to use proceeds from asset divestitures or advances under loan facilities to maintain sufficient cash to operate.

In contrast, each year from 2010 through 2014, the company generated positive cash flow from operations. Even in the horrendous economic environment of 2009, net cash provided by operations equaled +$181 million.

What assets did iFart sell in 2016 to create so much cash from investing activities??? I honestly don't know, and I was unable to find the answer in their poorly written 10-K filing. I'm too lazy to look through their 8-K filings; that would take forever to do. iFart finished 2016 with $845 million in Cash on hand. That might seem like a lot, but it really isn't . Remember, they generated $856 million in cash during the year by selling assets outside of the ordinary course of business.

The company's projected debt service in 2017 is over $2.0 billion (!!!), with ~$1.7 billion of that figure being interest expense. Renegotiating debt instruments to reduce outstanding principal is one thing, but in all honesty, the company's main focus right now needs to be reducing its debt service.

The financial metrics I included above suggest the company is bleeding cash when considering recurring operations, has questionable ability to cover debt service, and has no ability to make senior secured creditors whole (let alone unsecured creditors, who are in a horrible position).

I will need to re-read the articles I linked to see by how much the tender offer, if it is reasonably successful, would reduce debt service. That is the key.

I would LOVE to know how much iFart has spent on its iHeartRadio platform to date vs. contribution margin it has generated. I have the same question as to iFart's spending on iBiquity's horrible technology (including equipment purchases, installation and ongoing licensing fees).


Memo to 106.7: Twenty-One Pilots, Imagine Dragons, FUN and Fall Out Boy all S-U-C-K!!! Stop playing those shitty (boy) bands, and maybe you'll end your streak of piss poor ratings!

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Re: It took 12 years, but Jerry nailed it... CC is going down.

Post by MWmetalhead » Sun Mar 26, 2017 6:05 pm

I answered one of my earlier questions - in first quarter 2016, iFart sold outdoor advertising assets in about 16 cities to Lamar Outdoor.

https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/209984 ... core-focus

These divestitures created at least $1 billion in cash, yet only a small fraction of those proceeds went toward repayment of long-term debt. I can see why Chase and others are pissed!!!


Memo to 106.7: Twenty-One Pilots, Imagine Dragons, FUN and Fall Out Boy all S-U-C-K!!! Stop playing those shitty (boy) bands, and maybe you'll end your streak of piss poor ratings!

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Re: It took 12 years, but Jerry nailed it... CC is going down.

Post by TC Talks » Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:36 am

You knew that the asset sale would be from their cash cow. I am surprised that revenue went up '10 to '16, but I can't​ see the debt service going down with declining asset value and break even cash flow. I've got some​ really hair brained ideas I'd love to pitch these creditors. They seem will to bite on stupid ideas with a great pitch.


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Re: It took 12 years, but Jerry nailed it... CC is going down.

Post by MWmetalhead » Wed Apr 05, 2017 7:33 pm

I am surprised that revenue went up '10 to '16, but I can't​ see the debt service going down with declining asset value and break even cash flow.
Well, if the lenders don't want to modify their Credit Agreement to permit a reduction in debt service requirements, the company will have no choice but to file for bankruptcy.


Memo to 106.7: Twenty-One Pilots, Imagine Dragons, FUN and Fall Out Boy all S-U-C-K!!! Stop playing those shitty (boy) bands, and maybe you'll end your streak of piss poor ratings!

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Re: It took 12 years, but Jerry nailed it... CC is going down.

Post by Some Guy from Toledo » Thu Apr 06, 2017 7:35 pm

MWmetalhead wrote:
Wed Apr 05, 2017 7:33 pm
I am surprised that revenue went up '10 to '16, but I can't​ see the debt service going down with declining asset value and break even cash flow.
Well, if the lenders don't want to modify their Credit Agreement to permit a reduction in debt service requirements, the company will have no choice but to file for bankruptcy.
Good.



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Re: It took 12 years, but Jerry nailed it... CC is going down.

Post by MWmetalhead » Sat May 06, 2017 6:39 pm

DISASTROUS earnings call for iHeartless.

Executive management basically admitting that they have no f*cking clue how to improve revenue results.

All the while, they are signing Seacrest, Harvey and other stars to outrageously pricey contract extensions.

Pittman needs to be fired - like NOW.

http://www.mysanantonio.com/business/ar ... to-8643726


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Re: It took 12 years, but Jerry nailed it... CC is going down.

Post by TC Talks » Mon Sep 11, 2017 11:41 pm

Where is this flaming heap of shit these days?


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